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AUD

09 Feb 2023

Bond Market Signals

Fairly modest moves across markets overnight, though the underlying themes of participants reassessing the outlook for how high interest rates could go, how long central banks may need to keep them there to squash inflation, and concerns about what the economic impacts could be continuing to bubble to the surface. The US S&P500 drifted back again (-0.9%) as US bond yields rose ~6bps across the curve. The USD index has range traded over the past few sessions, but in level terms it is still up near a 1-month high. EUR is down near 1.0730, USD/JPY is up around 131.60, and the...

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01 Feb 2023

Volatility is picking up.

Given the activity spillovers from China’s faster-than-predicted shift away from zero-Covid, its economic reopening and stimulus drive should help lessen some of the downside risks to global growth. This should be an underlying Australian support via tailwinds provided to commodity prices. However, we think that a lot of that narrative is already priced in. Australian dollar appreciation has recently outpaced China’s activity pulse, indicating that an acceleration in momentum is being pre-empted. It would take further meaningful upgrades-which we don’t anticipate, to extend early 2023’s bullishness. Australian dollar, actual versus estimate

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25 Jan 2023

Trading Remains Subdued as News Flow Slows to a Trickle

Foreign exchange markets are seemingly weighed down by a heavy blanket of snow this morning, with trading ranges remaining remarkably tight ahead of next week’s central bank meetings. The greenback is up microscopically, and the Australian dollar is the only major with material gains, having risen sharply after the latest inflation numbers surprised to the upside. Equity futures are tumbling ahead of the North American open, with weak earnings guidance from Microsoft helping to keep overall risk sentiment restrained. The euro remains well-supported after the latest purchasing manager survey data suggested that economic fortunes are set to diverge on either...

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11 Jan 2023

Markets Remain Unnervingly Calm Ahead of Inflation Numbers

Liquidity conditions remain remarkably thin across currency markets as participants cut risk ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report. Equity markets are consolidating yesterday’s gains, ten-year Treasury yields are 3 basis points lower overnight, the Canadian dollar is down even as oil advances, and no major currency pair is more than a quarter-percentage point off levels that prevailed when we penned yesterday’s note. We’re borrrrrrred. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell avoided providing anything that could be construed as forward guidance at yesterday’s conference on central bank independence in Stockholm. In a speech focused on the Fed’s unique and specific mandate, Mr. Powell...

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04 Jan 2023

Market Briefing: Dollar fades as rebalancing flows gain momentum

Currency market volumes are rebounding as participants return to their desks and position for a reversal of the US exceptionalism trade that dominated throughout 2022. The dollar is weaker against every other major this morning, and yields are softer across the front end of the curve – even as traders brace for relatively-hawkish meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve later in the day. The Aussie is a clear outperformer after Chinese authorities began discussing an end to an unofficial ban on Australian coal imports. Unconfirmed reports circulated by Bloomberg and Reuters this morning suggest the National Development and Reform Commission...

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