Australia
Australia
Spot Exchange Rate
Indicative Interbank Spot Exchange Rate, Price of 1 Australian Dollar in US Dollars, Updates Daily
The spot exchange rate is the indicative exchange rate applied to interbank foreign exchange transactions that are settled on the spot date – typically within two working days. The “base currency” is the first currency appearing in the pair, followed by the second part of the quotation, called the “counter currency”. The exchange rate indicates how much of the counter currency is needed to buy one unit of the base currency.
Australia
Year to Date Performance
Gain or Loss Relative to USD, Year to Date, Updates Daily
Represents the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate relative to the US dollar year to date.
Australia
Annual Movement
Year-To-Date % Change in AUDUSD Exchange Rate, Adjusted for Breaks, Updates Daily
Historical Movement compares this year’s exchange rate movement – the thick white line – with movement in previous years – the thinner blue lines – to illustrate the degree to which the rate has moved. Performance is equal to the percentage gain or loss in the exchange rate realized over the number of trading days shown on the horizontal axis.
Australia
Currency Volatility
Realized 3-Month Historical AUDUSD Volatility v. Implied Volatility, 3-Month ATM Options, Updates Weekly
Represents realized volatility - the scale and frequency of moves over the prior three months - and implied volatility - the market’s expectations of moves over the next three months. Realized volatility is measured using the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over a three-month rolling time horizon, and implied volatility is derived from at-the-money three-month currency options.
Australia
Fill Probability
Estimated likelihood of market order fill, updates weekly
Uses a five-year history of trading ranges to estimate the likelihood that a market order (limit order) placed at a specified number of pips away from the current mid-market spot level will be executed within a specific time horizon. A market order placed far above or below the current spot rate will have a lower fill probability than one placed closer to the current spot rate. This probability can vary during periods of higher or lower volatility, or when unexpected events trigger sharp directional moves.
Australia
Probability Analysis
Estimated AUDUSD Expiration Range By Confidence Interval, Updates Daily
The Probability Analysis chart, based on a standard deviation bell curve, uses realized historical volatility to illustrate the likelihood that the exchange rate will end within a defined trading band at expiry. For example, we can be confident that 85 out of 100 times, the exchange rate will fall within the upper and lower bounds shown at the 85% confidence interval - and the exchange rate could end above or below these bounds in 15 out of 100 cases.
Please Note: The confidence intervals depicted are generalized measures of probability based upon a parametric/ delta-normal analysis of a 5-year historical distribution of market movements, and are used to estimate the exchange rate uncertainties associated with different currencies and time periods. Smaller or larger movements than those outlined are possible. In currency markets specifically, major political and economic events can trigger moves that exceed any historically-driven model parameters.
Australia
Forward Differential
Indicative 12-Month AUDUSD Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The 12-month forward differential quantifies the difference - expressed in basis points - between the prevailing spot exchange rate and a 12-month outright forward contract. This difference does not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but is instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair. The differential can be positive or negative depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Australia
Forward Curve
Indicative AUDUSD Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The forward curve illustrates the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and outright forward contracts for various future dates. These differences do not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but are instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair over each period. The differential can be positive (premium) or negative (discount) depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Australia
Yield Differential
10-Year AUD-USD Government Bond Yield Differential, %, Updates Weekly
The Yield Differential chart illustrates the difference between 10-year Australian government bond yields and their equivalent US Treasury yields. Positive values indicate higher yields in Australian dollars than in US dollars, while negative values imply the opposite.
Australia
Speculative Positioning
Net Long (+) or Short (-) Australian Dollar Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars, Updates Weekly
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in US futures markets. Market participants follow the data to identify extreme long or short positions in a currency - something that can signal a trend reversal.
Australia
Purchasing Power Parity
Australian Dollar, Under (-) or Over (+) Valuation vs. US Dollar, OECD PPP, Updates Daily
Purchasing Power Parity measures whether market exchange rates are theoretically overvalued or undervalued. Purchasing Power Parities are conversion rates that attempt to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. Note that market rates can deviate from Purchasing Power Parity rates for years, even decades, at a time - so cannot be used to reliably forecast future exchange rate movements.
Latest Analysis
Latest Analysis
Dollar Climbs On Trade Deal With EU, Traders Brace For Havoc Ahead
28 July, 2025
The dollar is outperforming all of its major counterparts after the US reached a trade deal with the European Union, reducing uncertainties facing businesses and investors on both sides of the pond. Treasury...
Let's make a deal
27 July, 2025
• Dealmaker. Trade optimism supported US equities & USD at end of last week. AUD & NZD drifted a little lower. EUR ticked higher this morning.• US/EU deal. Over weekend US/EU announced a 15% tariff...
Earnings and Trade Optimism Spreads, Boosting Risk Assets
24 July, 2025
Risk-sensitive assets are looking buoyant this morning as perceived tail risks recede and investors turn more optimistic on the direction of global growth. The US dollar is up slightly, Treasury yields...
Risk Appetite Improves On US-Japan Trade Deal
23 July, 2025
A modest improvement in risk appetite is washing across markets after a trade deal between the US and Japan proved less economically-damaging than feared. The dollar and Treasury yields are holding steady,...
Intra-Day Volatility Falls As Newsflow Grinds To A Halt
22 July, 2025
Currency markets are turning in a mixed performance this morning amid an utter lack of new volatility catalysts. The dollar is holding steady in line with placid Treasury yields, most major currencies...
Positive vibes
21 July, 2025
• Upbeat tone. No news has been good news. US equities rose, while bond yields & USD slipped back. AUD a bit higher at start of new week.• RBA guidance. RBA meeting minutes out today. Governor Bullock...
Yen Climbs, Dollar Retreats As Data-Light Week Kicks Off
21 July, 2025
Amid a quiet start to the week, the Japanese yen is finding modest support even after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s governing coalition lost its majority in the Upper House, suggesting that currency...
Hanging on
20 July, 2025
• Hanging on. A quieter end to last week. US equities consolidated. USD a bit softer. AUD & NZD ticked up but still lost ground over the week.• US trends. US data has generally been a bit better than...
Dollar Rebounds After Short-Lived Selloff
17 July, 2025
The dollar is resuming its upward climb and bond markets are stabilising after suffering a short-lived bout of extreme volatility early in yesterday’s session on speculation surrounding the potential firing...
Fed Chair in the firing line
16 July, 2025
• Market jolt. Reports & denials about whether Chair Powell may be removed generated a burst of volatility. On net, US equities rose & USD weakened.• Fed changes. Fed Chair can’t be fired...