China
China
Spot Exchange Rate
Indicative Interbank Spot Exchange Rate, Price of 1 US Dollar in Onshore Chinese Yuan, Updates Daily
The spot exchange rate is the indicative exchange rate applied to interbank foreign exchange transactions that are settled on the spot date – typically within two working days. The “base currency” is the first currency appearing in the pair, followed by the second part of the quotation, called the “counter currency”. The exchange rate indicates how much of the counter currency is needed to buy one unit of the base currency.
China
Year to Date Performance
Gain or Loss Relative to USD, Year to Date, Updates Daily
Represents the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate relative to the US dollar year to date.
China
Annual Movement
Year-To-Date % Change in CNYUSD Exchange Rate, Adjusted for Breaks, Updated Daily
Historical Movement compares this year’s exchange rate movement – the thick white line – with movement in previous years – the thinner blue lines – to illustrate the degree to which the rate has moved. Performance is equal to the percentage gain or loss in the exchange rate realized over the number of trading days shown on the horizontal axis.
China
Volatility
Realized 3-Month Historical USDCNY Currency Volatility v. Implied Volatility, 3-Month ATM Options, Updates Weekly
Represents realized volatility - the scale and frequency of moves over the prior three months - and implied volatility - the market’s expectations of moves over the next three months. Realized volatility is measured using the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over a three-month rolling time horizon, and implied volatility is derived from at-the-money three-month currency options.
China
Probability Analysis
Estimated USDCNY Expiration Range By Confidence Interval, Updates Daily
The Probability Analysis chart, based on a standard deviation bell curve, uses realized historical volatility to illustrate the likelihood that the exchange rate will end within a defined trading band at expiry. For example, we can be confident that 85 out of 100 times, the exchange rate will fall within the upper and lower bounds shown at the 85% confidence interval - and the exchange rate could end above or below these bounds in 15 out of 100 cases. Please Note: The confidence intervals depicted are generalized measures of probability based upon a parametric/ delta-normal analysis of a 5-year historical distribution of market movements, and are used to estimate the exchange rate uncertainties associated with different currencies and time periods. Smaller or larger movements than those outlined are possible. In currency markets specifically, major political and economic events can trigger moves that exceed any historically-driven model parameters.
China
Forward Differential
Indicative 12-Month USDCNY Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The 12-month forward differential quantifies the difference - expressed in basis points - between the prevailing spot exchange rate and a 12-month outright forward contract. This difference does not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but is instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair. The differential can be positive or negative depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
China
Yield Differential
10-Year CNY-USD Government Bond Yield Differential, %, Updates Weekly
The Yield Differential chart illustrates the difference between 10-year Chinese government bond yields and their equivalent US Treasury yields. Positive values indicate higher yields in Chinese renminbi than in US dollars, while negative values imply the opposite.
China
Forward Curve
Indicative USDCNY Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The forward curve illustrates the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and outright forward contracts for various future dates. These differences do not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but are instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair over each period. The differential can be positive (premium) or negative (discount) depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
China
Purchasing Power Parity
Chinese Yuan, Under (-) or Over (+) Valuation vs. US Dollar, OECD PPP, Updates Daily
Purchasing Power Parity measures whether market exchange rates are theoretically overvalued or undervalued. Purchasing Power Parities are conversion rates that attempt to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. Note that market rates can deviate from Purchasing Power Parity rates for years, even decades, at a time - so cannot be used to reliably forecast future exchange rate movements.
Latest Analysis
Latest Analysis
Knee-Jerk Market Reaction Fades On Mixed US Inflation Print
15 July, 2025
US inflation printed below expectations for a fifth consecutive month in June as tariff-led price increases in core goods categories were offset by softness in the services sector and in automobile costs....
Markets Keep Playing Chicken With Trump
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Financial markets are beginning the week in a remarkably-calm state after the Trump administration spent the weekend escalating its trade war and stepping up its assault on Federal Reserve chair Jerome...
Trump Raises Tariffs on Mexico and the European Union to 30 Percent
12 July, 2025
Currency markets are headed for another bruising open when trading begins in Asia tomorrow afternoon after President Donald Trump delivered another set of letters threatening to impose higher tariffs on...
Dollar Firms As Trump's Letter-Writing Campaign Accelerates
11 July, 2025
The dollar looks set to end the week on a more supportive footing after Donald Trump redoubled his efforts to revive the forgotten art of letter writing, threatening to substantially raise tariffs on Canadian...
Canadian Dollar Tumbles As Trump Ups Tariff Ante With 35-Percent Threat
10 July, 2025
Update: Bloomberg is reporting that a US official has clarified that the new tariff threshold is NOT intended to apply to USMCA-compliant goods, suggesting that the impact on the Canadian economy could...
Tariff pen pals
09 July, 2025
• Holding on. US sends out more tariff letters. Equities unfazed with S&P500 pushing higher. Bond yields dip. USD consolidated. AUD range-bound.• RBNZ steady. RBNZ on hold. But underlying tone &...
Currency Traders Yawn As Tariff Threats Continue
09 July, 2025
Currency markets remain firmly rangebound even after President Donald Trump warned “no extensions will be granted” to his August 1 tariff date, threatened to raise levies on copper and pharmaceutical imports...
Trump's Tariff Letters Leave Markets Largely Unmoved
08 July, 2025
The dollar is losing altitude once again after Donald Trump reignited trade tensions with a fresh round of tariff threats, unsettling global markets and complicating the outlook for monetary policy. Trump...
Markets Trade Sideways As Trade Uncertainties Loom
07 July, 2025
The dollar is holding near a three-year low and measures of risk appetite are pointing to subdued trading action after the Trump administration seemingly extended its tariff deadline to August 1—reducing...
Jobs boost
03 July, 2025
• Upbeat tone. US equities, bond yields, & the USD edged up overnight. EUR eased back, as did NZD & AUD, though they remain at high levels.• US data. US jobs report a bit better than expected....