China
China
Spot Exchange Rate
Indicative Interbank Spot Exchange Rate, Price of 1 US Dollar in Onshore Chinese Yuan, Updates Daily
The spot exchange rate is the indicative exchange rate applied to interbank foreign exchange transactions that are settled on the spot date – typically within two working days. The “base currency” is the first currency appearing in the pair, followed by the second part of the quotation, called the “counter currency”. The exchange rate indicates how much of the counter currency is needed to buy one unit of the base currency.
China
Year to Date Performance
Gain or Loss Relative to USD, Year to Date, Updates Daily
Represents the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate relative to the US dollar year to date.
China
Annual Movement
Year-To-Date % Change in CNYUSD Exchange Rate, Adjusted for Breaks, Updated Daily
Historical Movement compares this year’s exchange rate movement – the thick white line – with movement in previous years – the thinner blue lines – to illustrate the degree to which the rate has moved. Performance is equal to the percentage gain or loss in the exchange rate realized over the number of trading days shown on the horizontal axis.
China
Volatility
Realized 3-Month Historical USDCNY Currency Volatility v. Implied Volatility, 3-Month ATM Options, Updates Weekly
Represents realized volatility - the scale and frequency of moves over the prior three months - and implied volatility - the market’s expectations of moves over the next three months. Realized volatility is measured using the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over a three-month rolling time horizon, and implied volatility is derived from at-the-money three-month currency options.
China
Probability Analysis
Estimated USDCNY Expiration Range By Confidence Interval, Updates Daily
The Probability Analysis chart, based on a standard deviation bell curve, uses realized historical volatility to illustrate the likelihood that the exchange rate will end within a defined trading band at expiry. For example, we can be confident that 85 out of 100 times, the exchange rate will fall within the upper and lower bounds shown at the 85% confidence interval - and the exchange rate could end above or below these bounds in 15 out of 100 cases. Please Note: The confidence intervals depicted are generalized measures of probability based upon a parametric/ delta-normal analysis of a 5-year historical distribution of market movements, and are used to estimate the exchange rate uncertainties associated with different currencies and time periods. Smaller or larger movements than those outlined are possible. In currency markets specifically, major political and economic events can trigger moves that exceed any historically-driven model parameters.
China
Forward Differential
Indicative 12-Month USDCNY Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The 12-month forward differential quantifies the difference - expressed in basis points - between the prevailing spot exchange rate and a 12-month outright forward contract. This difference does not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but is instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair. The differential can be positive or negative depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
China
Yield Differential
10-Year CNY-USD Government Bond Yield Differential, %, Updates Weekly
The Yield Differential chart illustrates the difference between 10-year Chinese government bond yields and their equivalent US Treasury yields. Positive values indicate higher yields in Chinese renminbi than in US dollars, while negative values imply the opposite.
China
Forward Curve
Indicative USDCNY Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The forward curve illustrates the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and outright forward contracts for various future dates. These differences do not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but are instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair over each period. The differential can be positive (premium) or negative (discount) depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
China
Purchasing Power Parity
Chinese Yuan, Under (-) or Over (+) Valuation vs. US Dollar, OECD PPP, Updates Daily
Purchasing Power Parity measures whether market exchange rates are theoretically overvalued or undervalued. Purchasing Power Parities are conversion rates that attempt to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. Note that market rates can deviate from Purchasing Power Parity rates for years, even decades, at a time - so cannot be used to reliably forecast future exchange rate movements.
Latest Analysis
Latest Analysis
Payrolls Smash Forecasts, Propelling Dollar Higher
04 October, 2024
The US job creation engine snapped back into high gear in September, crushing odds on a second outsized rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s November meeting. According to data just released by the Bureau...
Caution Grows as Payrolls Loom
04 October, 2024
Traders are signing pre-nuptial agreements with their positions this morning, avoiding exposure to downside risk ahead of a potentially-pivotal non-farm payrolls report. The dollar’s gains are slowing...
AUD/NZD: RBNZ needs to get moving
03 October, 2024
The NZD’s revival against the AUD, which washed through from end-July to mid-September on the back of stronger dairy prices (NZ’s major export) at the start of the new season and concerns about China’s...
Middle East nerves
03 October, 2024
• Oil spike. Comments by US President Biden relating to the Middle East conflict pushed up oil. Shaky risk sentiment supported the USD. AUD a bit lower.• GBP weaker. Dovish BoE rhetoric weighed on GBP....
Dollar Keeps Climbing the 'Wall of Worry'
03 October, 2024
The dollar is holding near a two-week high, boosted by safe haven demand and a diminishing sense of conviction in a steep rate-cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve.
Oil prices are still grinding higher...
Middle East Turmoil Keeps Markets In Risk-Off Mode
02 October, 2024
Fear levels are subsiding across global financial markets after Iran launched at least 180 ballistic missiles at Israel yesterday without inflicting large numbers of casualties or causing significant damage...
Middle East tensions rock the boat
01 October, 2024
• Geopolitics. Developments in the Middle East dampened sentiment. Equities & bond yields declined. USD a little firmer. AUD modestly lower.• Oil & vol. Brent crude prices increased, but now look...
US Fed remains data dependent
30 September, 2024
• China focus. The surge in China’s equity market continued yesterday. Iron ore prices also higher. This helped the AUD add to recent gains.• Fed Chair. US yields & the USD clawed back some ground...
Will the US jobs market continue to buckle?
29 September, 2024
• Mixed markets. Equities in China continue to power ahead, while lower inflation weighed on European/US bond yields. USD near 2024 lows.• AUD holding. AUD remains near the top of the range it has occupied...
US Inflation Subsides and Canadian Economy Flatlines
27 September, 2024
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure continued its moderation in August and personal spending missed expectations, helping bolster bets on a second consecutive oversized rate cut at the central...