Japan
Japan
Spot Exchange Rate
Indicative Interbank Spot Exchange Rate, Price of 1 US Dollar in Japanese Yen, Updates Daily
The spot exchange rate is the indicative exchange rate applied to interbank foreign exchange transactions that are settled on the spot date – typically within two working days. The “base currency” is the first currency appearing in the pair, followed by the second part of the quotation, called the “counter currency”. The exchange rate indicates how much of the counter currency is needed to buy one unit of the base currency.
Japan
Year to Date Performance
Gain or Loss Relative to USD, Year to Date, Updates Daily
Represents the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate relative to the US dollar year to date.
Japan
Annual Movement
Year-To-Date % Change in JPYUSD Exchange Rate, Adjusted for Breaks, Updated Daily
Historical Movement compares this year’s exchange rate movement – the thick white line – with movement in previous years – the thinner blue lines – to illustrate the degree to which the rate has moved. Performance is equal to the percentage gain or loss in the exchange rate realized over the number of trading days shown on the horizontal axis.
Japan
Currency Volatility
Realized 3-Month Historical USDJPY Currency Volatility v. Implied Volatility, 3-Month ATM Options, Updates Weekly
Represents realized volatility - the scale and frequency of moves over the prior three months - and implied volatility - the market’s expectations of moves over the next three months. Realized volatility is measured using the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over a three-month rolling time horizon, and implied volatility is derived from at-the-money three-month currency options.
Japan
Fill Probability
Estimated likelihood of market order fill, updates weekly
Uses a five-year history of trading ranges to estimate the likelihood that a market order (limit order) placed at a specified number of pips away from the current mid-market spot level will be executed within a specific time horizon. A market order placed far above or below the current spot rate will have a lower fill probability than one placed closer to the current spot rate. This probability can vary during periods of higher or lower volatility, or when unexpected events trigger sharp directional moves.
Japan
Probability Analysis
Estimated USDJPY Expiration Range By Confidence Interval, Updates Daily
The Probability Analysis chart, based on a standard deviation bell curve, uses realized historical volatility to illustrate the likelihood that the exchange rate will end within a defined trading band at expiry. For example, we can be confident that 85 out of 100 times, the exchange rate will fall within the upper and lower bounds shown at the 85% confidence interval - and the exchange rate could end above or below these bounds in 15 out of 100 cases. Please Note: The confidence intervals depicted are generalized measures of probability based upon a parametric/ delta-normal analysis of a 5-year historical distribution of market movements, and are used to estimate the exchange rate uncertainties associated with different currencies and time periods. Smaller or larger movements than those outlined are possible. In currency markets specifically, major political and economic events can trigger moves that exceed any historically-driven model parameters.
Japan
Forward Differential
Indicative 12-Month USDJPY Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The 12-month forward differential quantifies the difference - expressed in basis points - between the prevailing spot exchange rate and a 12-month outright forward contract. This difference does not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but is instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair. The differential can be positive or negative depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Japan
Forward Curve
Indicative USDJPY Forward Points by Month, Updates Weekly
The forward curve illustrates the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and outright forward contracts for various future dates. These differences do not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but are instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair over each period. The differential can be positive (premium) or negative (discount) depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Japan
Yield Differential
10-Year JPY-USD Government Bond Yield Differential, %, Updates Weekly
The Yield Differential chart illustrates the difference between 10-year Japanese government bond yields and their equivalent US Treasury yields. Positive values indicate higher yields in yen than in US dollars, while negative values imply the opposite.
Japan
Speculative Positioning
Net Long (+) or Short (-) Japanese Yen Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars, Updates Weekly
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in US futures markets. Market participants follow the data to identify extreme long or short positions in a currency - something that can signal a trend reversal.
Japan
Purchasing Power Parity
Japanese Yen, Under (-) or Over (+) Valuation vs. US Dollar, OECD PPP, Updates Daily
Purchasing Power Parity measures whether market exchange rates are theoretically overvalued or undervalued. Purchasing Power Parities are conversion rates that attempt to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. Note that market rates can deviate from Purchasing Power Parity rates for years, even decades, at a time - so cannot be used to reliably forecast future exchange rate movements.
Latest Analysis
Latest Analysis
Dollar Rebounds After Short-Lived Selloff
17 July, 2025
The dollar is resuming its upward climb and bond markets are stabilising after suffering a short-lived bout of extreme volatility early in yesterday’s session on speculation surrounding the potential firing...
Fed Chair in the firing line
16 July, 2025
• Market jolt. Reports & denials about whether Chair Powell may be removed generated a burst of volatility. On net, US equities rose & USD weakened.• Fed changes. Fed Chair can’t be fired...
Currencies Retrace After Subdued Wholesale Inflation Print
16 July, 2025
Bond yields and the dollar are giving back some of yesterday’s gains after US wholesale prices flatlined in June, helping assuage fears of a sharp acceleration in the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation...
USD revival tour
15 July, 2025
• US CPI. Uptick in US inflation has seen Fed rate cut expectations fall. USD firmer on the back of higher yields. AUD & NZD lose some ground.• US data flow. US producer prices out tonight. US import...
Knee-Jerk Market Reaction Fades On Mixed US Inflation Print
15 July, 2025
US inflation printed below expectations for a fifth consecutive month in June as tariff-led price increases in core goods categories were offset by softness in the services sector and in automobile costs....
Markets Keep Playing Chicken With Trump
14 July, 2025
Financial markets are beginning the week in a remarkably-calm state after the Trump administration spent the weekend escalating its trade war and stepping up its assault on Federal Reserve chair Jerome...
Trump Raises Tariffs on Mexico and the European Union to 30 Percent
12 July, 2025
Currency markets are headed for another bruising open when trading begins in Asia tomorrow afternoon after President Donald Trump delivered another set of letters threatening to impose higher tariffs on...
Dollar Firms As Trump's Letter-Writing Campaign Accelerates
11 July, 2025
The dollar looks set to end the week on a more supportive footing after Donald Trump redoubled his efforts to revive the forgotten art of letter writing, threatening to substantially raise tariffs on Canadian...
Canadian Dollar Tumbles As Trump Ups Tariff Ante With 35-Percent Threat
10 July, 2025
Update: Bloomberg is reporting that a US official has clarified that the new tariff threshold is NOT intended to apply to USMCA-compliant goods, suggesting that the impact on the Canadian economy could...
Tariff pen pals
09 July, 2025
• Holding on. US sends out more tariff letters. Equities unfazed with S&P500 pushing higher. Bond yields dip. USD consolidated. AUD range-bound.• RBNZ steady. RBNZ on hold. But underlying tone &...