Japan
Japan
Spot Exchange Rate
Indicative Interbank Spot Exchange Rate, Price of 1 US Dollar in Japanese Yen, Updates Daily
The spot exchange rate is the indicative exchange rate applied to interbank foreign exchange transactions that are settled on the spot date – typically within two working days. The “base currency” is the first currency appearing in the pair, followed by the second part of the quotation, called the “counter currency”. The exchange rate indicates how much of the counter currency is needed to buy one unit of the base currency.
Japan
Year to Date Performance
Gain or Loss Relative to USD, Year to Date, Updates Daily
Represents the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate relative to the US dollar year to date.
Japan
Annual Movement
Year-To-Date % Change in JPYUSD Exchange Rate, Adjusted for Breaks, Updated Daily
Historical Movement compares this year’s exchange rate movement – the thick white line – with movement in previous years – the thinner blue lines – to illustrate the degree to which the rate has moved. Performance is equal to the percentage gain or loss in the exchange rate realized over the number of trading days shown on the horizontal axis.
Japan
Currency Volatility
Realized 3-Month Historical USDJPY Currency Volatility v. Implied Volatility, 3-Month ATM Options, Updates Weekly
Represents realized volatility - the scale and frequency of moves over the prior three months - and implied volatility - the market’s expectations of moves over the next three months. Realized volatility is measured using the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over a three-month rolling time horizon, and implied volatility is derived from at-the-money three-month currency options.
Japan
Probability Analysis
Estimated USDJPY Expiration Range By Confidence Interval, Updates Daily
The Probability Analysis chart, based on a standard deviation bell curve, uses realized historical volatility to illustrate the likelihood that the exchange rate will end within a defined trading band at expiry. For example, we can be confident that 85 out of 100 times, the exchange rate will fall within the upper and lower bounds shown at the 85% confidence interval - and the exchange rate could end above or below these bounds in 15 out of 100 cases. Please Note: The confidence intervals depicted are generalized measures of probability based upon a parametric/ delta-normal analysis of a 5-year historical distribution of market movements, and are used to estimate the exchange rate uncertainties associated with different currencies and time periods. Smaller or larger movements than those outlined are possible. In currency markets specifically, major political and economic events can trigger moves that exceed any historically-driven model parameters.
Japan
Forward Differential
Indicative 12-Month USDJPY Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The 12-month forward differential quantifies the difference - expressed in basis points - between the prevailing spot exchange rate and a 12-month outright forward contract. This difference does not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but is instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair. The differential can be positive or negative depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Japan
Forward Curve
Indicative USDJPY Forward Points by Month, Updates Weekly
The forward curve illustrates the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and outright forward contracts for various future dates. These differences do not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but are instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair over each period. The differential can be positive (premium) or negative (discount) depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Japan
Yield Differential
10-Year JPY-USD Government Bond Yield Differential, %, Updates Weekly
The Yield Differential chart illustrates the difference between 10-year Japanese government bond yields and their equivalent US Treasury yields. Positive values indicate higher yields in yen than in US dollars, while negative values imply the opposite.
Japan
Speculative Positioning
Net Long (+) or Short (-) Japanese Yen Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars, Updates Weekly
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in US futures markets. Market participants follow the data to identify extreme long or short positions in a currency - something that can signal a trend reversal.
Japan
Purchasing Power Parity
Japanese Yen, Under (-) or Over (+) Valuation vs. US Dollar, OECD PPP, Updates Daily
Purchasing Power Parity measures whether market exchange rates are theoretically overvalued or undervalued. Purchasing Power Parities are conversion rates that attempt to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. Note that market rates can deviate from Purchasing Power Parity rates for years, even decades, at a time - so cannot be used to reliably forecast future exchange rate movements.
Latest Analysis
Latest Analysis
Rising Unemployment Hits Both US and Canadian Dollars
06 December, 2024
The US job creation engine came back to life in November after October’s strike- and hurricane-related slowdown, but the rebound likely wasn’t strong enough to derail the Federal Reserve’s easing plans....
US jobs report in focus
05 December, 2024
• Marking time. Markets essentially in a holding pattern ahead of tonight’s US jobs report. Easing French political concerns support EUR.• US jobs. Non-farm payrolls in focus. Reaction likely to...
Subpar growth weighs on the AUD
04 December, 2024
• Positive vibes. Equities power ahead. USD treads water. AUD underperforms. US data solid but not spectacular overnight.• AUD tumbles. Weaker than expected GDP weighs on AUD. Growth has slowed across...
Markets Steady After South Korean Shock
04 December, 2024
The dollar is pushing higher, Treasury yields are steadying, and equity futures are advancing as the French government moves closer to collapse and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell prepares to deliver...
AUD: Temporary GDP hammer blow?
04 December, 2024
The now dated Q3 Australian GDP has exerted downward pressure on the AUD (now ~$0.6415) with the already sluggish underlying growth picture undershooting analysts forecasts. This won’t surprise businesses...
Markets calm despite political turbulence
03 December, 2024
• Political news. Political developments in South Korea & ongoing issues in France dominated the international news flow the past 24hrs.• Calm markets. However, market spillovers were limited. European...
Dollar Rally Eases on Waller Comments, Euro Remains Under Pressure
03 December, 2024
The dollar is trading with a softer bias this morning after Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested that he would support cutting rates at the central bank’s next meeting, helping put pressure on the...
French politics rattles FX markets
02 December, 2024
• Mixed markets. Equities push higher while French political issues weighed on the EUR. This supported the USD. AUD & NZD lost ground.• US data. ISM manufacturing better than expected. US job openings...
Dollar Rallies Back, Euro Tumbles
02 December, 2024
The ‘US exceptionalism’ theme is back to driving markets this morning, helping the dollar snap a three-day losing streak against most of its rivals. The euro is coming under pressure as the French government...
US jobs in the spotlight this week
01 December, 2024
• Positive tone. A solid end to November with US & European equities rising. Bond yields dipped. AUD & NZD edged a bit higher.• JPY revival. JPY rebound has weighed on USD/JPY & the USD. Narrowing...