Canada
Spot Exchange Rate
Indicative Interbank Spot Exchange Rate, Price of 1 US Dollar in Canadian Dollars, Updates Daily
The spot exchange rate is the indicative exchange rate applied to interbank foreign exchange transactions that are settled on the spot date – typically within two working days. The “base currency” is the first currency appearing in the pair, followed by the second part of the quotation, called the “counter currency”. The exchange rate indicates how much of the counter currency is needed to buy one unit of the base currency.
Canada
Year to Date Performance
Gain or Loss Relative to USD, Year to Date, Updates Daily
Represents the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate relative to the US dollar year to date.
Canada
Annual Movement
Year-To-Date % Change in CADUSD Exchange Rate, Adjusted for Breaks, Updated Daily
Historical Movement compares this year’s exchange rate movement – the thick black line – with movement in previous years – the thinner blue lines – to illustrate the degree to which the rate has moved. Performance is equal to the percentage gain or loss in the exchange rate realized over the number of trading days shown on the horizontal axis.
Canada
Currency Volatility
Realized 3-Month Historical USDCAD Currency Volatility v. Implied Volatility, 3-Month ATM Options, Updates Weekly
Represents realized volatility - the scale and frequency of moves over the prior three months - and implied volatility - the market’s expectations of moves over the next three months. Realized volatility is measured using the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over a three-month rolling time horizon, and implied volatility is derived from at-the-money three-month currency options.
Canada
Fill Probability
Estimated likelihood of market order fill, updates weekly
Uses a five-year history of trading ranges to estimate the likelihood that a market order (limit order) placed at a specified number of pips away from the current mid-market spot level will be executed within a specific time horizon. A market order placed far above or below the current spot rate will have a lower fill probability than one placed closer to the current spot rate. This probability can vary during periods of higher or lower volatility, or when unexpected events trigger sharp directional moves.
Canada
Probability Analysis
Estimated USDCAD Expiration Range By Confidence Interval, Updates Daily
The Probability Analysis chart, based on a standard deviation bell curve, uses realized historical volatility to illustrate the likelihood that the exchange rate will end within a defined trading band at expiry. For example, we can be confident that 85 out of 100 times, the exchange rate will fall within the upper and lower bounds shown at the 85% confidence interval – and the exchange rate could end above or below these bounds in 15 out of 100 cases. Please Note: The confidence intervals depicted are generalized measures of probability based upon a parametric/ delta-normal analysis of a 5-year historical distribution of market movements, and are used to estimate the exchange rate uncertainties associated with different currencies and time periods. Smaller or larger movements than those outlined are possible. In currency markets specifically, major political and economic events can trigger moves that exceed any historically-driven model parameters.
Canada
Forward Differential
Indicative 12-Month USDCAD Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The 12-month forward differential quantifies the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and a 12-month outright forward contract. This difference does not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but is instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair. The differential can be positive or negative depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Canada
Forward Curve
Indicative 12-Month USDCAD Forward Points by Month, Updates Weekly
The forward curve illustrates the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and outright forward contracts for various future dates. These differences do not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but are instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair over each period. The differential can be positive (premium) or negative (discount) depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Canada
Yield Differential
10-Year CAD-USD Government Bond Yield Differential, %, Updates Weekly
The Yield Differential chart illustrates the difference between 10-year Canadian government bond yields and their equivalent US Treasury yields. Positive values indicate a higher yield in Canadian dollars than in US dollars, while negative values imply the opposite.
Canada
Speculative Positioning
Net Long (+) or Short (-) Canadian Dollar Futures Position, Billions US Dollars, Updates Weekly
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in US futures markets. Market participants follow the data to identify extreme long or short positions in a currency - something that can signal a trend reversal.
Canada
Purchasing Power Parity
Canadian Dollar, Under (-) or Over (+) Valuation vs. US Dollar, OECD PPP, Updates Daily
Purchasing Power Parity measures whether market exchange rates are theoretically overvalued or undervalued. Purchasing Power Parities are conversion rates that attempt to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. Note that market rates can deviate from Purchasing Power Parity rates for years, even decades, at a time – so cannot be used to reliably forecast future exchange rate movements.
Latest Analysis
Risk reversal
14 July, 2026
• Market rebound. Pres. Trump backtracks on Strait of Hormuz levy. US CPI softer. Odds of a July Fed hike pared back. USD weaker. AUD & NZD rise.• Data pulse. US CPI underwhelms, but Fed Chair Warsh...
Underlying US inflation decelerates sharply, taking a July rate hike off the table
14 July, 2026
Underlying consumer price growth turned negative in the United States last month, smashing the case for an imminent rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and adding to the downward pressure building against...
Dollar retreats as traders batten the hatches ahead of inflation print
14 July, 2026
Good morning. Oil prices are up nearly 15% from Friday’s close and the dollar is retreating after an escalation between Washington and Tehran led to a collapse in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,...
Sentiment sours
13 July, 2026
• Risk wobbles. Renewed US/Iran tensions dampen risk sentiment. Oil prices jump, US equities dip, & USD firmer. AUD slips back.• US data flow. Fed’s Waller ‘hawkish’. Markets pricing...
Iran escalation lifts crude prices, leaves currencies mostly unmoved
13 July, 2026
Good morning. Oil prices are in the ascendant once again after another military escalation between the United States and Iran reignited fears of a prolonged disruption in energy shipments through the Strait...
Canadian dollar inches higher after jobs number beats expectations
10 July, 2026
The Canadian economy again generated more jobs than anticipated last month, further lowering the likelihood of an economic downturn and allowing policymakers at the Bank of Canada to remain squarely focused...
Bought and paid for?
09 July, 2026
A few years ago three behavioural-finance researchers put a deceptively simple question* to more than 26,000 people—academic economists, ordinary households, retail investors, financial advisers and professional...
Market momentum slows as clashes between the US and Iran continue
09 July, 2026
Good morning. Oil prices and currency markets are stabilising after yet another escalation in the conflict between the United States and Iran left the status quo* in the Strait of Hormuz largely intact....
Breakdown in US-Iran ceasefire triggers whiplash across currency markets
08 July, 2026
Good morning. The dollar is advancing and oil prices are climbing after a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran collapsed, endangering a nascent recovery in global energy supplies. A series of Iranian...
Markets steady as data cadence slows and underlying trends stay in place
07 July, 2026
Good morning. Foreign exchange markets are enjoying a quiet, range-bound session, with most currencies little changed against the dollar amid a lack of first-tier economic data and a paucity of geopolitical...