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Forward Guidance

FX Markets Blog

Markets rise on interrupted shutdown
US markets are gaining this morning after the government reached a last-minute deal to avert a shutdown – but with the same brinksmanship likely to play out again in less than eight weeks, we’re not sure how long the momentum can last. Equity futures are rising ahead of the open, Treasury yields are pushing toward Friday’s highs, and the dollar is climbing against its major Asian and European...
Up and away
Another round of stronger-than-expected US activity data combined with surging oil prices to send Treasury yields roaring to new cyclical peaks yesterday, triggering yet another spike in the dollar. Durable goods orders surprised with a 0.2-percent gain in August – markets had expected a -0.5 percent contraction – and non-defence capital spending climbed 0.9 percent, suggesting that the...
Higher Oil, stronger USD
• Oil & bonds. Oil prices have continued to rise. Inflation risks are underpinning bond yields. Relatively higher US yields have supported the USD.• AUD struggles. The stronger USD has washed through FX markets. EUR touched its lowest level since early-January. AUD hit a fresh 2023 low.• Local data. Headline inflation re-accelerated. Improvement in core inflation is slow going. Pressure on the...
Bonds have more fun
Treasury yields are retreating from multi-decade highs, helping relieve pressure on equity and foreign exchange markets. North American stock markets look set to open in the green and the dollar is putting in a mixed performance, but the risk-sensitive Canadian dollar is inching lower, and background volatility measures are creeping up. Bond yields moved higher in yesterday’s session after home prices...
Bearish vibes
• Negative sentiment. Elevated bond yields, sluggish US data, & US government shutdown jitters dampened risk sentiment. Equities lower. USD firm.• AUD sluggish. The backdrop has weighed on the EUR & GBP. AUD also a bit lower. Since 2015 AUD has only traded sub ~$0.64 ~2% of the time.• AU CPI. Monthly CPI indicator released today. The large jump in petrol & stickiness across services prices...
Dollar juggernaut maintains momentum
Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the highest levels since 2007, and the dollar is close to a nine-month peak Defensive buying ahead of the looming US government shutdown may be playing a role, but the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and gold – traditional safe haven instruments – are showing limited signs of demand. Instead, we think hawkish interpretations of last week’s dot plot...