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Market Notes

Euro Crisis Flashbacks Hit Markets
Traders are in sell-first, ask-questions-later mode and the euro is coming under sustained pressure as negative rhetoric surrounding the upcoming French election heats up. The dollar and yen are climbing on safe-haven demand, Treasury yields are inching lower, and North American equity futures are looking subdued ahead of what could evolve into a risk-off day in broader financial markets. Franco-German...
European political nerves
• European politics. Concerns about the French elections has exerted pressure on the EUR. This helped push AUD/EUR higher.• US data. US PPI undershot forecasts. Inflation tide may be turning. US yields fell, but European issues supported the USD. AUD/USD drifted back.• AU jobs. May jobs report better than expected. At 4% unemployment is still low. Conditions for an RBA interest rate cut still look...
Market Calm Returns
Financial markets are stabilising this morning as investors process the implications of yesterday’s soft US inflation print and more hawkish-than-expected Fed decision. The dollar is moving sideways along with the pound and euro, Treasury yields are slipping, and North American equity futures are setting up for a mixed trading day. The May inflation report was unquestionably positive, consistent...
US inflation vs the Fed
• Data vs the Fed. Softer US inflation overpowered a ‘higher for longer’ Fed message. US yields fell, equities rose, & the USD weakened.• Stale forecasts? Fed assuming only 1 cut this year. Fed has moved to match the market. But Chair Powell noted ‘most’ didn’t tweak forecasts after the CPI.• AUD outperformance. Backdrop helped the AUD outperform. AU jobs report today....
Fed Signals One Cut in 2024, Down From Three
As expected, the US Federal Reserve’s policy committee held benchmark borrowing costs at a 23-year high for a seventh consecutive meeting this afternoon, but slashed the number of cuts expected this year from three to one – disappointing market participants expecting a more dovish outlook. In the statement setting out its decision, the Federal Open Market Committee repeated a sentence warning...
US Inflation Decelerates Sharply, Bolstering Rate Cut Odds
Consumer price growth slowed more than expected in the United States last month, setting the stage for a more dovish set of communications from the Federal Reserve when it releases its latest decision this afternoon. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.4...

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