Euro Area
Euro Area
Spot Exchange Rate
Indicative Interbank Spot Exchange Rate, Price of 1 Euro in US Dollars, Updates Daily
The spot exchange rate is the indicative exchange rate applied to interbank foreign exchange transactions that are settled on the spot date – typically within two working days. The “base currency” is the first currency appearing in the pair, followed by the second part of the quotation, called the “counter currency”. The exchange rate indicates how much of the counter currency is needed to buy one unit of the base currency.
Euro Area
Year to Date Performance
Gain or Loss Relative to USD, Year to Date, Updates Daily
Represents the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate relative to the US dollar year to date.
Euro Area
Annual Movement
Year-To-Date % Change in EURUSD Exchange Rate, Adjusted for Breaks, Updated Daily
Historical Movement compares this year’s exchange rate movement – the thick white line – with movement in previous years – the thinner blue lines – to illustrate the degree to which the rate has moved. Performance is equal to the percentage gain or loss in the exchange rate realized over the number of trading days shown on the horizontal axis.
Euro Area
Currency Volatility
Realized 3-Month Historical EURUSD Currency Volatility v. Implied Volatility, 3-Month ATM Options, Updates Weekly
Represents realized volatility - the scale and frequency of moves over the prior three months - and implied volatility - the market’s expectations of moves over the next three months. Realized volatility is measured using the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over a three-month rolling time horizon, and implied volatility is derived from at-the-money three-month currency options.
Euro Area
Fill Probability
Estimated likelihood of market order fill, updates weekly
Uses a five-year history of trading ranges to estimate the likelihood that a market order (limit order) placed at a specified number of pips away from the current mid-market spot level will be executed within a specific time horizon. A market order placed far above or below the current spot rate will have a lower fill probability than one placed closer to the current spot rate. This probability can vary during periods of higher or lower volatility, or when unexpected events trigger sharp directional moves.
Euro Area
Probability Analysis
Estimated EURUSD Expiration Range By Confidence Interval, Updates Daily
The Probability Analysis chart, based on a standard deviation bell curve, uses realized historical volatility to illustrate the likelihood that the exchange rate will end within a defined trading band at expiry. For example, we can be confident that 85 out of 100 times, the exchange rate will fall within the upper and lower bounds shown at the 85% confidence interval - and the exchange rate could end above or below these bounds in 15 out of 100 cases. Please Note: The confidence intervals depicted are generalized measures of probability based upon a parametric/ delta-normal analysis of a 5-year historical distribution of market movements, and are used to estimate the exchange rate uncertainties associated with different currencies and time periods. Smaller or larger movements than those outlined are possible. In currency markets specifically, major political and economic events can trigger moves that exceed any historically-driven model parameters.
Euro Area
Forward Differential
Indicative 12-Month EURUSD Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The 12-month forward differential quantifies the difference - expressed in basis points - between the prevailing spot exchange rate and a 12-month outright forward contract. This difference does not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but is instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair. The differential can be positive or negative depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Euro Area
Forward Curve
Indicative EURUSD Forward Points by Month, Updates Weekly
The forward curve illustrates the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and outright forward contracts for various future dates. These differences do not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but are instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair over each period. The differential can be positive (premium) or negative (discount) depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Euro Area
Yield Differential
10-Year EUR-USD Government Bond Yield Differential, %, Updates Weekly
The Yield Differential chart illustrates the difference between 10-year synthetic Euro Area government bond yields and their equivalent US Treasury yields. Positive values indicate higher yields in euros than in US dollars, while negative values imply the opposite.
Euro Area
Speculative Positioning
Net Long (+) or Short (-) Euro Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars, Updates Weekly
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in US futures markets. Market participants follow the data to identify extreme long or short positions in a currency - something that can signal a trend reversal.
Euro Area
Purchasing Power Parity
Euro, Under (-) or Over (+) Valuation vs. US Dollar, OECD PPP, Updates Daily
Purchasing Power Parity measures whether market exchange rates are theoretically overvalued or undervalued. Purchasing Power Parities are conversion rates that attempt to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. Note that market rates can deviate from Purchasing Power Parity rates for years, even decades, at a time - so cannot be used to reliably forecast future exchange rate movements.
Latest Analysis
Latest Analysis
Volatility subsides as event risks fade
19 December, 2025
‘Tis the calm before year-end, when all through the street,Not a currency is stirring—even the yen is tucked in its seat.Dollar short positions are hung by low vols with care,In hopes that Fed easing soon...
Surprise deceleration in inflation pressures dollar
18 December, 2025
Underlying consumer price growth slowed dramatically in the US last month, helping support expectations for a more aggressive easing campaign from the Federal Reserve in the new year. According to data...
Dollar advances in line with firming yields
17 December, 2025
The dollar is edging higher against most major peers as yields firm in the wake of yesterday’s heavy US data slate. Ten-year Treasury rates have nudged up, equity futures are coming under mild pressure...
US labour market signals
16 December, 2025
• Mixed signals. US data crosscurrents resulted in modest net market moves overnight. US equities consolidated. Oil prices fell. AUD lost a bit of ground.• US data. Core retail sales stronger, but PMIs...
Mixed payrolls report knocks dollar lower
16 December, 2025
US labour markets continued to cool in October and November, slightly raising market bets on a stepped-up easing campaign from the Federal Reserve next year. According to delayed data just released by...
Price action slows as traders brace for dangerous week
15 December, 2025
Currency markets are trading cautiously as participants prepare to close the books on 2025, with many cutting exposure ahead of a week laden with economic data and central bank event risks. The dollar...
Data flow picks up this week
14 December, 2025
• Equity wobbles. Fresh valuation concerns weighed on US equities on Friday. AUD & NZD lost a bit of ground, but still rose over the past week.• Event Radar. NZ GDP is out (Thurs). US jobs data, retail...
Dollar holds post-Fed losses
11 December, 2025
The dollar is back on the defensive this morning as markets absorb yesterday’s unexpectedly-neutral Federal Reserve rate cut as well as a stumble in the overheated US tech complex ahead of next week’s...
Hold the line
10 December, 2025
• US Fed. Another US rate cut announced. But guidance wasn’t as ‘hawkish’ as feared. Positive for sentiment. USD weaker. AUD close to year-to-date peak.• AU jobs. Australian employment...
Federal Reserve cuts rates, telegraphs January pause
10 December, 2025
The Federal Reserve cut rates for a third consecutive time this afternoon, and opened the door to a January pause amid growing uncertainty on the economy’s underlying trajectory.
In the widely-expected...