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Currency Forecasts

Our forecasts offer a structured view of how we expect major currency pairs to evolve across the near and medium term. Our analysis integrates macroeconomic fundamentals, monetary-policy dynamics, capital-flow trends, and geopolitical event-risk scenarios to translate a complex global backdrop into a set of clear directional views. Forecasts are reviewed and refreshed as conditions change, providing a consistent reference point for decision-makers navigating volatile currency markets.

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Latest Analysis

All Commentary
RBA U-turn
28 January, 2026
• Holding on. No change in rates by US Fed. US equities & bond yields consolidate. USD index ticks up, but AUD outperformance continues.• RBA hikes. Stronger CPI boosted RBA rate rise bets. Hike next...
Fed holds rates in broadly-supported decision, shifts statement language into neutral
28 January, 2026
The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged this afternoon, and subtly upgraded its assessment of labour markets and growth, disappointing those expecting a more dovish bias and lending the dollar some much-needed...
Bank of Canada stays sidelined, preserves optionality for future moves
28 January, 2026
As markets had overwhelmingly anticipated, the Bank of Canada left its policy settings on hold this morning, and again clearly signalled that rates are already at near-neutral levels, keeping expectations...
Dollar stages half-hearted recovery attempt
28 January, 2026
Good morning. The almighty greenback is struggling to climb off a four-year low after US president Donald Trump said he didn’t think it had fallen too far, remarking that he could make it “go up or go...
USD slide continues
27 January, 2026
• Weaker USD. US equities rose again while the USD remains under pressure. EUR at a multi-year high. AUD touched highest point since Q1 2023.• Macro trends. Q4 Australian CPI out today. Will it help or...
Dollar plunges as Trump downplays recent weakness
27 January, 2026
The dollar is tumbling through technical barriers across most major currency pairs after US president Donald Trump told reporters “I could have it go up or down like a yo-yo,” and that he’s not concerned...
Currency markets calm, but remain dollar bearish
27 January, 2026
Foreign exchange markets are enjoying a brief period of respite, with most major pairs showing signs of mean reversion after the weekend’s sharp moves. The dollar is edging higher and measures of currency...
USD doldrums
26 January, 2026
• USD weaker. Falls in USD/JPY on back of intervention fears have weighed on USD. NZD also supported by NZ CPI. AUD near top of multi-year range.• Data flow. Q4 AU CPI due tomorrow, US Fed also meets (Thurs...
Dollar tumbles as political uncertainty soars
26 January, 2026
Good morning. Foreign exchange markets are again facing treacherous conditions as a blizzard of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks hits the headlines. After a weekend filled with shocks—including an...
Markets retrace as geopolitical risks recede
23 January, 2026
Good morning. Price action is slowing across the financial markets as geopolitical noise levels come down, and consolidative trading patterns are emerging across most major currency pairs as investor focus...

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