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Currency Forecasts

Our forecasts offer a structured view of how we expect major currency pairs to evolve across the near and medium term. Our analysis integrates macroeconomic fundamentals, monetary-policy dynamics, capital-flow trends, and geopolitical event-risk scenarios to translate a complex global backdrop into a set of clear directional views. Forecasts are reviewed and refreshed as conditions change, providing a consistent reference point for decision-makers navigating volatile currency markets.

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Latest Analysis

All Commentary
Risk reversal
14 July, 2026
• Market rebound. Pres. Trump backtracks on Strait of Hormuz levy. US CPI softer. Odds of a July Fed hike pared back. USD weaker. AUD & NZD rise.• Data pulse. US CPI underwhelms, but Fed Chair Warsh...
Underlying US inflation decelerates sharply, taking a July rate hike off the table
14 July, 2026
Underlying consumer price growth turned negative in the United States last month, smashing the case for an imminent rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and adding to the downward pressure building against...
Dollar retreats as traders batten the hatches ahead of inflation print
14 July, 2026
Good morning. Oil prices are up nearly 15% from Friday’s close and the dollar is retreating after an escalation between Washington and Tehran led to a collapse in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,...
Sentiment sours
13 July, 2026
• Risk wobbles. Renewed US/Iran tensions dampen risk sentiment. Oil prices jump, US equities dip, & USD firmer. AUD slips back.• US data flow. Fed’s Waller ‘hawkish’. Markets pricing...
Iran escalation lifts crude prices, leaves currencies mostly unmoved
13 July, 2026
Good morning. Oil prices are in the ascendant once again after another military escalation between the United States and Iran reignited fears of a prolonged disruption in energy shipments through the Strait...
Canadian dollar inches higher after jobs number beats expectations
10 July, 2026
The Canadian economy again generated more jobs than anticipated last month, further lowering the likelihood of an economic downturn and allowing policymakers at the Bank of Canada to remain squarely focused...
Bought and paid for?
09 July, 2026
A few years ago three behavioural-finance researchers put a deceptively simple question* to more than 26,000 people—academic economists, ordinary households, retail investors, financial advisers and professional...
Market momentum slows as clashes between the US and Iran continue
09 July, 2026
Good morning. Oil prices and currency markets are stabilising after yet another escalation in the conflict between the United States and Iran left the status quo* in the Strait of Hormuz largely intact....
Breakdown in US-Iran ceasefire triggers whiplash across currency markets
08 July, 2026
Good morning. The dollar is advancing and oil prices are climbing after a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran collapsed, endangering a nascent recovery in global energy supplies. A series of Iranian...
Markets steady as data cadence slows and underlying trends stay in place
07 July, 2026
Good morning. Foreign exchange markets are enjoying a quiet, range-bound session, with most currencies little changed against the dollar amid a lack of first-tier economic data and a paucity of geopolitical...

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