Our forecasts offer a structured view of how we expect major currency pairs to evolve across the near and medium term. Our analysis integrates macroeconomic fundamentals, monetary-policy dynamics, capital-flow trends, and geopolitical event-risk scenarios to translate a complex global backdrop into a set of clear directional views. Forecasts are reviewed and refreshed as conditions change, providing a consistent reference point for decision-makers navigating volatile currency markets.
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Latest Analysis
Sentiment vs reality
31 March, 2026
• Positive vibes. ‘Glass half full’ markets buoyed by US/Iran comments. US equities rose, oil fell. USD weaker. AUD & NZD claw back some lost ground.• Economic reality. Still more water...
Market stress eases on reports of a potential shift in US Mideast strategy
31 March, 2026
Financial markets are staging yet another relief rally after the Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump is considering declaring victory in the Iran conflict without establishing control over the...
Mideast conflict deepens, threatening global markets
30 March, 2026
The dollar is on course for its strongest monthly performance since July and Brent crude is tracking what could be a record monthly gain as the US-Israeli war against Iran devolves into a protracted regional...
War, what is it good for?
29 March, 2026
• Conflict concerns. Risk sentiment negative. Oil prices higher. Equities lower. USD edging up. AUD & NZD on the backfoot. AUD ~4.7% from its March peak.• Global economy. More volatility likely. Impact...
Rattled markets
26 March, 2026
• Negative vibes. Ongoing concerns about the Middle East conflict weighed on sentiment. Equities lower, oil & yields higher. USD firmer. AUD under pressure.• Twists & turns. Situation in Middle...
Iran optimism fades, leaving FX markets bracing for more turbulence
26 March, 2026
Good morning. Risk appetite is deteriorating across the financial system as the Middle East conflict shows little sign of easing ahead of President Trump’s deadline for resuming military strikes...
Markets rally on peace hopes
25 March, 2026
A wave of cautious optimism is washing over financial markets after the United States reportedly offered Iran a 15-point peace plan, reinforcing the belief that Washington is looking for an exit from the...
Oil prices retrace higher as Mideast conflict continues
24 March, 2026
Energy prices are ratcheting higher once again as fighting in the Middle East rages unabated, suggesting that President Donald Trump’s efforts to find a diplomatic off-ramp have not met with success thus...
Twists & turns
23 March, 2026
• Risk reversal. Comments by Pres. Trump saw oil prices fall & sentiment improve. USD weaker. AUD ticked up, but AUD also underperforms on crosses.• Fragile markets. Situation in Middle East remains...
Markets stage violent reversal after Trump signals de-escalation in Iran conflict
23 March, 2026
Oil prices are tumbling and currency markets are snapping back toward pre-war levels after President Donald Trump said that Washington and Tehran had held “very good and productive conversations”...