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Currency Forecasts

Our forecasts offer a structured view of how we expect major currency pairs to evolve across the near and medium term. Our analysis integrates macroeconomic fundamentals, monetary-policy dynamics, capital-flow trends, and geopolitical event-risk scenarios to translate a complex global backdrop into a set of clear directional views. Forecasts are reviewed and refreshed as conditions change, providing a consistent reference point for decision-makers navigating volatile currency markets.

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Latest Analysis

All Commentary
NZD: RBNZ (slowly) shifting course
17 February, 2026
After delivering an aggressive series of interest rate cuts over the past ~18-months in a bid to revive NZ’s economic fortunes, it wasn’t a surprise to see the Reserve Bank of NZ hold the Official Cash...
RBNZ in focus
17 February, 2026
• Choppy markets. Intra-session swings overnight. Positive steps between US/Iran help sentiment. AUD & NZD tick a bit higher in quiet trading.• Macro events. RBNZ today. No change in rates expected....
Currency traders seek safe havens as turbulence continues
17 February, 2026
Good morning. Risk aversion is dominating markets as trading resumes after yesterday’s North American holiday. The dollar and safe-haven yen are extending their gains, two-year Treasury yields are sliding...
Aussie jobs data & RBNZ in focus this week
15 February, 2026
• US CPI. Cooling US inflation helped stabilise risk sentiment. US bond yields dipped. USD tread water, as did the NZD. AUD drifted a bit lower on Friday.• Event radar. US holiday tonight. Lunar New Year...
Relief washes over markets as US inflation print meets expectations
13 February, 2026
Consumer price growth avoided a widely-feared acceleration in the United States last month, giving the Federal Reserve room to adopt a slightly more accommodative stance in the months to come. According...
Dollar bears shrug off positive payrolls
12 February, 2026
Good morning. The dollar is edging lower even after yesterday’s stronger-than-expected jobs data drove a hawkish repricing in US growth and monetary policy expectations. Treasury yields are holding steady,...
AUD outperformance
11 February, 2026
• US data. US jobs report supported sentiment. This & ‘hawkish’ comments by RBA’s Hauser helped AUD outperform. AUD at levels last traded in Feb ’23.• Rate repricing. Markets...
Upside payrolls surprise fuels dollar rally
11 February, 2026
After slowing sharply over the last year, the US job creation engine showed signs of accelerating last month, frustrating market expectations for a rapid easing cycle from the Federal Reserve, and allaying...
Dollar softens as US consumers slow spending growth
10 February, 2026
The dollar is weakening and yields are nudging lower after US consumer spending surprisingly flatlined in December, underpinning expectations for more monetary easing in the months ahead. According to...
Political developments roil currency markets
09 February, 2026
Treasury yields are climbing and the dollar is under pressure after Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators have instructed the country’s commercial banks to cut their holdings of American government...

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