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Currency Forecasts

Our forecasts offer a structured view of how we expect major currency pairs to evolve across the near and medium term. Our analysis integrates macroeconomic fundamentals, monetary-policy dynamics, capital-flow trends, and geopolitical event-risk scenarios to translate a complex global backdrop into a set of clear directional views. Forecasts are reviewed and refreshed as conditions change, providing a consistent reference point for decision-makers navigating volatile currency markets.

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Latest Analysis

All Commentary
Oil volatility & AUD outperforms
10 March, 2026
• Oil swings. Pull-back in oil prices has supported risk sentiment. Will it last? Situation in Middle East remains fluid. More volatility likely over period ahead.• RBA Hawks. AUD/USD at top of its range....
Markets poised to unwind war premium as Trump signals Iran endgame
09 March, 2026
Crude oil benchmarks are under intense selling pressure and currency markets are reversing direction after US president Donald Trump told CBS News “I think the war is very complete, pretty much”. Trump...
Soaring crude prices wreak havoc in financial markets
09 March, 2026
Foreign exchange markets are in upheaval after Iran war fears drove global crude prices nearly 30 percent higher over the weekend—but conditions could stabilise in coming hours if G7 countries tap their...
Oil price worries intensify
08 March, 2026
• Macro worries. Growth/inflation concerns due to the jump in oil were compounded by a weak US jobs report. AUD remains on the backfoot.• Oil risks. Production cuts across Middle East creating supply risks....
Non-farm payrolls disappoint, combining with higher oil to unleash stagflation fears
06 March, 2026
The US job creation engine decelerated sharply last month, partially reversing market bets on a more hawkish policy stance from the Federal Reserve this year. According to data just released by the Bureau...
Market swings continue
05 March, 2026
• Oil jump. Another move higher in oil prices because of Middle East concerns dampened risk sentiment. Equities fell. USD firmer. AUD underperforms.• Macro worries. Higher energy prices pose an upside...
Fog of war settles on currency markets, leaving trading directionless
05 March, 2026
Good morning. Currency markets are still struggling to navigate conflicting signals from the Middle East. Iran’s deputy foreign minister reportedly told Sky News Arabia that Tehran might be willing...
Markets enjoy moment of respite on hopes for end to Mideast conflict
04 March, 2026
An uneasy sense of calm is settling on currency markets this morning as signs emerge that the conflict in the Middle East may be approaching a negotiated end. According to the New York Times, Iranian intelligence...
Middle East concerns rattle markets
03 March, 2026
• Market swings. Middle East conflict generated a burst of volatility overnight. Equities declined, oil prices rose. AUD traded in a ~2.5% range yesterday.• Macro news. AU Q4 GDP today. RBA Gov. Bullock...
Dollar powers higher as Mideast conflict widens
03 March, 2026
Good morning. The dollar is steamrolling its major rivals for a second consecutive session as geopolitical risks and inflation fears reinforce one another. With the conflict in the Middle East showing...

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