China
Spot Exchange Rate
Indicative Interbank Spot Exchange Rate, Price of 1 US Dollar in Onshore Chinese Yuan, Updates Daily
The spot exchange rate is the indicative exchange rate applied to interbank foreign exchange transactions that are settled on the spot date – typically within two working days. The “base currency” is the first currency appearing in the pair, followed by the second part of the quotation, called the “counter currency”. The exchange rate indicates how much of the counter currency is needed to buy one unit of the base currency.
China
Year to Date Performance
Gain or Loss Relative to USD, Year to Date, Updates Daily
Represents the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate relative to the US dollar year to date.
China
Annual Movement
Year-To-Date % Change in CNYUSD Exchange Rate, Adjusted for Breaks, Updated Daily
Historical Movement compares this year’s exchange rate movement – the thick white line – with movement in previous years – the thinner blue lines – to illustrate the degree to which the rate has moved. Performance is equal to the percentage gain or loss in the exchange rate realized over the number of trading days shown on the horizontal axis.
China
Volatility
Realized 3-Month Historical USDCNY Currency Volatility v. Implied Volatility, 3-Month ATM Options, Updates Weekly
Represents realized volatility - the scale and frequency of moves over the prior three months - and implied volatility - the market’s expectations of moves over the next three months. Realized volatility is measured using the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over a three-month rolling time horizon, and implied volatility is derived from at-the-money three-month currency options.
China
Probability Analysis
Estimated USDCNY Expiration Range By Confidence Interval, Updates Daily
The Probability Analysis chart, based on a standard deviation bell curve, uses realized historical volatility to illustrate the likelihood that the exchange rate will end within a defined trading band at expiry. For example, we can be confident that 85 out of 100 times, the exchange rate will fall within the upper and lower bounds shown at the 85% confidence interval - and the exchange rate could end above or below these bounds in 15 out of 100 cases. Please Note: The confidence intervals depicted are generalized measures of probability based upon a parametric/ delta-normal analysis of a 5-year historical distribution of market movements, and are used to estimate the exchange rate uncertainties associated with different currencies and time periods. Smaller or larger movements than those outlined are possible. In currency markets specifically, major political and economic events can trigger moves that exceed any historically-driven model parameters.
China
Forward Differential
Indicative 12-Month USDCNY Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The 12-month forward differential quantifies the difference - expressed in basis points - between the prevailing spot exchange rate and a 12-month outright forward contract. This difference does not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but is instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair. The differential can be positive or negative depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
China
Yield Differential
10-Year CNY-USD Government Bond Yield Differential, %, Updates Weekly
The Yield Differential chart illustrates the difference between 10-year Chinese government bond yields and their equivalent US Treasury yields. Positive values indicate higher yields in Chinese renminbi than in US dollars, while negative values imply the opposite.
China
Forward Curve
Indicative USDCNY Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The forward curve illustrates the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and outright forward contracts for various future dates. These differences do not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but are instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair over each period. The differential can be positive (premium) or negative (discount) depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
China
Purchasing Power Parity
Chinese Yuan, Under (-) or Over (+) Valuation vs. US Dollar, OECD PPP, Updates Daily
Purchasing Power Parity measures whether market exchange rates are theoretically overvalued or undervalued. Purchasing Power Parities are conversion rates that attempt to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. Note that market rates can deviate from Purchasing Power Parity rates for years, even decades, at a time - so cannot be used to reliably forecast future exchange rate movements.
Latest Analysis
Latest Analysis
Dollar tumbles as Trump renews tariff threats
19 January, 2026
Good morning. The dollar is back on the defensive as investors digest weekend comments from President Donald Trump, who threatened tariffs on European countries that do not support his push to acquire...
Swings & roundabouts
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• Positive tone. Sentiment improved overnight. US equities rebounded. Bond yields rose. Oil fell. AUD ticked up thanks to some relative outperformance.• Data flow. Limited releases today. Next week things...
Currency ranges tighten as complacency sets in
15 January, 2026
Good morning. Currency markets have slipped back into extremely tight ranges as geopolitical fears recede and incoming data point to “Goldilocks” conditions across much of the advanced world. Realised...
Fundamental drivers reassert themselves in currency markets
14 January, 2026
Good morning. After a series of early-week distractions, currency market drivers are shifting back toward economic fundamentals today, with mixed US data keeping yields within tight ranges and the Japanese...
Tame inflation weighs on the dollar
13 January, 2026
Consumer price growth accelerated by slightly less than expected in the United States last month, helping lower short-term yields and putting downward pressure on the dollar. According to data published...
Noise vs Signal
12 January, 2026
• Headline noise. Markets continue to take geopolitical/macro developments in stride. US equities rose overnight. AUD ticked higher.• US Fed. Investigation into Fed Chair Powell raises concerns about central...
'Sell America' trade returns, albeit in modest form
12 January, 2026
The US dollar, Treasuries, and stock market indices are all trading slightly lower this morning after the Trump administration stepped up its assault on the Federal Reserve, launching a criminal investigation...
Dollar slides as Trump administration steps up attack against Federal Reserve
11 January, 2026
The Trump administration sharply intensified its assault on the Federal Reserve’s independence this evening, threatening a fundamental cornerstone of the international monetary and financial system—and...
Fall in US unemployment rate boosts dollar
09 January, 2026
The US economy generated fewer jobs than anticipated, but the unemployment rate declined last month, giving the Federal Reserve room to slow the pace of monetary easing over the course of 2026. According...
Mixed data supports dollar in countdown to tomorrow's payrolls report
08 January, 2026
Happy Thursday. The dollar is extending its advance for a third session after yesterday’s data underscored the US economy’s resilience, denting bearish conviction. Most major currency pairs remain rangebound,...