China
China
Spot Exchange Rate
Indicative Interbank Spot Exchange Rate, Price of 1 US Dollar in Onshore Chinese Yuan, Updates Daily
The spot exchange rate is the indicative exchange rate applied to interbank foreign exchange transactions that are settled on the spot date – typically within two working days. The “base currency” is the first currency appearing in the pair, followed by the second part of the quotation, called the “counter currency”. The exchange rate indicates how much of the counter currency is needed to buy one unit of the base currency.
China
Year to Date Performance
Gain or Loss Relative to USD, Year to Date, Updates Daily
Represents the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate relative to the US dollar year to date.
China
Annual Movement
Year-To-Date % Change in CNYUSD Exchange Rate, Adjusted for Breaks, Updated Daily
Historical Movement compares this year’s exchange rate movement – the thick white line – with movement in previous years – the thinner blue lines – to illustrate the degree to which the rate has moved. Performance is equal to the percentage gain or loss in the exchange rate realized over the number of trading days shown on the horizontal axis.
China
Volatility
Realized 3-Month Historical USDCNY Currency Volatility v. Implied Volatility, 3-Month ATM Options, Updates Weekly
Represents realized volatility - the scale and frequency of moves over the prior three months - and implied volatility - the market’s expectations of moves over the next three months. Realized volatility is measured using the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over a three-month rolling time horizon, and implied volatility is derived from at-the-money three-month currency options.
China
Probability Analysis
Estimated USDCNY Expiration Range By Confidence Interval, Updates Daily
The Probability Analysis chart, based on a standard deviation bell curve, uses realized historical volatility to illustrate the likelihood that the exchange rate will end within a defined trading band at expiry. For example, we can be confident that 85 out of 100 times, the exchange rate will fall within the upper and lower bounds shown at the 85% confidence interval - and the exchange rate could end above or below these bounds in 15 out of 100 cases. Please Note: The confidence intervals depicted are generalized measures of probability based upon a parametric/ delta-normal analysis of a 5-year historical distribution of market movements, and are used to estimate the exchange rate uncertainties associated with different currencies and time periods. Smaller or larger movements than those outlined are possible. In currency markets specifically, major political and economic events can trigger moves that exceed any historically-driven model parameters.
China
Forward Differential
Indicative 12-Month USDCNY Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The 12-month forward differential quantifies the difference - expressed in basis points - between the prevailing spot exchange rate and a 12-month outright forward contract. This difference does not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but is instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair. The differential can be positive or negative depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
China
Yield Differential
10-Year CNY-USD Government Bond Yield Differential, %, Updates Weekly
The Yield Differential chart illustrates the difference between 10-year Chinese government bond yields and their equivalent US Treasury yields. Positive values indicate higher yields in Chinese renminbi than in US dollars, while negative values imply the opposite.
China
Forward Curve
Indicative USDCNY Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The forward curve illustrates the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and outright forward contracts for various future dates. These differences do not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but are instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair over each period. The differential can be positive (premium) or negative (discount) depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
China
Purchasing Power Parity
Chinese Yuan, Under (-) or Over (+) Valuation vs. US Dollar, OECD PPP, Updates Daily
Purchasing Power Parity measures whether market exchange rates are theoretically overvalued or undervalued. Purchasing Power Parities are conversion rates that attempt to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. Note that market rates can deviate from Purchasing Power Parity rates for years, even decades, at a time - so cannot be used to reliably forecast future exchange rate movements.
Latest Analysis
Latest Analysis
Powell Turns Dovish in Jackson Hole, Triggering Dollar Plunge
22 August, 2025
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell provided a clear signal that the central bank will soon resume cutting interest rates in a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium this morning. “The balance of...
US Rate Cut Expectations Tumble Ahead of Jackson Hole
22 August, 2025
The trade-weighted dollar is holding near a two-week high after yesterday’s hotter-than-anticipated activity data triggered a dramatic reappraisal of the Federal Reserve’s expected easing trajectory, lowering...
What will Chair Powell say?
21 August, 2025
• Cautious tone. Hawkish Fed soundbites & positive US data saw yields tick higher. US equities slipped back. AUD & NZD remain on the backfoot.• Fed speak. Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole tonight....
Outlook Improves As Global Private Sector Activity Rebounds
21 August, 2025
A hint of cautious optimism is creeping into currency markets this morning after a raft of activity gauges suggested that the global private sector is proving surprisingly resilient in the face of the...
Currency Markets Steady As Traders Await Fed Communications
20 August, 2025
It’s quiet. Too quiet. Most major currency pairs remain trapped in tight price ranges this morning as volumes fall, but the dollar is firming slightly as traders hedge themselves against an unexpectedly-hawkish...
RBNZ: who let the doves out?
20 August, 2025
After holding steady last time out the Reserve Bank of New Zealand once again spread its ‘dovish’ wings at today’s policy meeting. As expected, the RBNZ announced another 25bp cut which lowered the Official...
Markets hit an air pocket
19 August, 2025
• Market wobbles. A small bout of risk aversion overnight. US equities declined while the USD ticked up. AUD & NZD lost some ground.• RBNZ meeting. RBNZ expected to cut rates again today. Will it flag...
Currency Market Price Action Slows, Canadian Inflation Eases
19 August, 2025
A sense of calm has descended upon global financial markets as the data cadence slows, geopolitical developments settle to a dull roar, and monetary policy expectations stabilise. Benchmark Treasury yields...
Traders Turn Cautious in Run-Up to Jackson Hole
18 August, 2025
Good morning, and welcome back. In the US, ten-year Treasury yields are holding near last week’s levels, equity futures are setting up for a modest advance at the open, and the dollar is trading near a...
Jackson Hole in focus
17 August, 2025
• Consolidation. US equities drifted back a bit on Friday, but still rose over the week. USD a little softer. AUD & NZD ticked up modestly.• Event Radar. RBNZ expected to cut rates again (Weds). Global...