China
Spot Exchange Rate
Indicative Interbank Spot Exchange Rate, Price of 1 US Dollar in Onshore Chinese Yuan, Updates Daily
The spot exchange rate is the indicative exchange rate applied to interbank foreign exchange transactions that are settled on the spot date – typically within two working days. The “base currency” is the first currency appearing in the pair, followed by the second part of the quotation, called the “counter currency”. The exchange rate indicates how much of the counter currency is needed to buy one unit of the base currency.
China
Year to Date Performance
Gain or Loss Relative to USD, Year to Date, Updates Daily
Represents the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate relative to the US dollar year to date.
China
Annual Movement
Year-To-Date % Change in CNYUSD Exchange Rate, Adjusted for Breaks, Updated Daily
Historical Movement compares this year’s exchange rate movement – the thick white line – with movement in previous years – the thinner blue lines – to illustrate the degree to which the rate has moved. Performance is equal to the percentage gain or loss in the exchange rate realized over the number of trading days shown on the horizontal axis.
China
Volatility
Realized 3-Month Historical USDCNY Currency Volatility v. Implied Volatility, 3-Month ATM Options, Updates Weekly
Represents realized volatility - the scale and frequency of moves over the prior three months - and implied volatility - the market’s expectations of moves over the next three months. Realized volatility is measured using the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over a three-month rolling time horizon, and implied volatility is derived from at-the-money three-month currency options.
China
Probability Analysis
Estimated USDCNY Expiration Range By Confidence Interval, Updates Daily
The Probability Analysis chart, based on a standard deviation bell curve, uses realized historical volatility to illustrate the likelihood that the exchange rate will end within a defined trading band at expiry. For example, we can be confident that 85 out of 100 times, the exchange rate will fall within the upper and lower bounds shown at the 85% confidence interval - and the exchange rate could end above or below these bounds in 15 out of 100 cases. Please Note: The confidence intervals depicted are generalized measures of probability based upon a parametric/ delta-normal analysis of a 5-year historical distribution of market movements, and are used to estimate the exchange rate uncertainties associated with different currencies and time periods. Smaller or larger movements than those outlined are possible. In currency markets specifically, major political and economic events can trigger moves that exceed any historically-driven model parameters.
China
Forward Differential
Indicative 12-Month USDCNY Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The 12-month forward differential quantifies the difference - expressed in basis points - between the prevailing spot exchange rate and a 12-month outright forward contract. This difference does not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but is instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair. The differential can be positive or negative depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
China
Yield Differential
10-Year CNY-USD Government Bond Yield Differential, %, Updates Weekly
The Yield Differential chart illustrates the difference between 10-year Chinese government bond yields and their equivalent US Treasury yields. Positive values indicate higher yields in Chinese renminbi than in US dollars, while negative values imply the opposite.
China
Forward Curve
Indicative USDCNY Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The forward curve illustrates the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and outright forward contracts for various future dates. These differences do not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but are instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair over each period. The differential can be positive (premium) or negative (discount) depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
China
Purchasing Power Parity
Chinese Yuan, Under (-) or Over (+) Valuation vs. US Dollar, OECD PPP, Updates Daily
Purchasing Power Parity measures whether market exchange rates are theoretically overvalued or undervalued. Purchasing Power Parities are conversion rates that attempt to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. Note that market rates can deviate from Purchasing Power Parity rates for years, even decades, at a time - so cannot be used to reliably forecast future exchange rate movements.
Latest Analysis
Non-farm payrolls disappoint, combining with higher oil to unleash stagflation fears
06 March, 2026
The US job creation engine decelerated sharply last month, partially reversing market bets on a more hawkish policy stance from the Federal Reserve this year. According to data just released by the Bureau...
Market swings continue
05 March, 2026
• Oil jump. Another move higher in oil prices because of Middle East concerns dampened risk sentiment. Equities fell. USD firmer. AUD underperforms.• Macro worries. Higher energy prices pose an upside...
Fog of war settles on currency markets, leaving trading directionless
05 March, 2026
Good morning. Currency markets are still struggling to navigate conflicting signals from the Middle East. Iran’s deputy foreign minister reportedly told Sky News Arabia that Tehran might be willing...
Markets enjoy moment of respite on hopes for end to Mideast conflict
04 March, 2026
An uneasy sense of calm is settling on currency markets this morning as signs emerge that the conflict in the Middle East may be approaching a negotiated end. According to the New York Times, Iranian intelligence...
Middle East concerns rattle markets
03 March, 2026
• Market swings. Middle East conflict generated a burst of volatility overnight. Equities declined, oil prices rose. AUD traded in a ~2.5% range yesterday.• Macro news. AU Q4 GDP today. RBA Gov. Bullock...
Dollar powers higher as Mideast conflict widens
03 March, 2026
Good morning. The dollar is steamrolling its major rivals for a second consecutive session as geopolitical risks and inflation fears reinforce one another. With the conflict in the Middle East showing...
Volatility rises as conflict spreads, but currency movements remain restrained
02 March, 2026
Good morning. Financial markets are experiencing violent price action after the weekend’s US-Israeli strike on Iran triggered a classic—if short-lived—flight to safety and a sharp repricing in global energy...
Duck & Cover
01 March, 2026
• Geopolitical nerves. US/Israel conflict with Iran has dampened risk sentiment in early Asian trade. USD firmer. NZD slips back. AUD underperforms.• Lingering risks. Market nervousness may persist for...
Currency markets brace for modest moves as Iran strikes fail to shift strategic calculus
01 March, 2026
Currency markets are set for a jolt when trading resumes this afternoon, though the reaction may prove less dramatic than the weekend’s headlines might suggest.
US and Israeli strikes on Iran have sent...
US and Israel launch regime change attempt in Iran, potentially roiling markets
28 February, 2026
The US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran earlier this morning, with the apparent aim of overthrowing the regime that has ruled since 1979. In an early-morning address, US president Donald Trump said...