China
Spot Exchange Rate
Indicative Interbank Spot Exchange Rate, Price of 1 US Dollar in Onshore Chinese Yuan, Updates Daily
The spot exchange rate is the indicative exchange rate applied to interbank foreign exchange transactions that are settled on the spot date – typically within two working days. The “base currency” is the first currency appearing in the pair, followed by the second part of the quotation, called the “counter currency”. The exchange rate indicates how much of the counter currency is needed to buy one unit of the base currency.
China
Year to Date Performance
Gain or Loss Relative to USD, Year to Date, Updates Daily
Represents the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate relative to the US dollar year to date.
China
Annual Movement
Year-To-Date % Change in CNYUSD Exchange Rate, Adjusted for Breaks, Updated Daily
Historical Movement compares this year’s exchange rate movement – the thick white line – with movement in previous years – the thinner blue lines – to illustrate the degree to which the rate has moved. Performance is equal to the percentage gain or loss in the exchange rate realized over the number of trading days shown on the horizontal axis.
China
Volatility
Realized 3-Month Historical USDCNY Currency Volatility v. Implied Volatility, 3-Month ATM Options, Updates Weekly
Represents realized volatility - the scale and frequency of moves over the prior three months - and implied volatility - the market’s expectations of moves over the next three months. Realized volatility is measured using the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over a three-month rolling time horizon, and implied volatility is derived from at-the-money three-month currency options.
China
Probability Analysis
Estimated USDCNY Expiration Range By Confidence Interval, Updates Daily
The Probability Analysis chart, based on a standard deviation bell curve, uses realized historical volatility to illustrate the likelihood that the exchange rate will end within a defined trading band at expiry. For example, we can be confident that 85 out of 100 times, the exchange rate will fall within the upper and lower bounds shown at the 85% confidence interval - and the exchange rate could end above or below these bounds in 15 out of 100 cases. Please Note: The confidence intervals depicted are generalized measures of probability based upon a parametric/ delta-normal analysis of a 5-year historical distribution of market movements, and are used to estimate the exchange rate uncertainties associated with different currencies and time periods. Smaller or larger movements than those outlined are possible. In currency markets specifically, major political and economic events can trigger moves that exceed any historically-driven model parameters.
China
Forward Differential
Indicative 12-Month USDCNY Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The 12-month forward differential quantifies the difference - expressed in basis points - between the prevailing spot exchange rate and a 12-month outright forward contract. This difference does not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but is instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair. The differential can be positive or negative depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
China
Yield Differential
10-Year CNY-USD Government Bond Yield Differential, %, Updates Weekly
The Yield Differential chart illustrates the difference between 10-year Chinese government bond yields and their equivalent US Treasury yields. Positive values indicate higher yields in Chinese renminbi than in US dollars, while negative values imply the opposite.
China
Forward Curve
Indicative USDCNY Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The forward curve illustrates the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and outright forward contracts for various future dates. These differences do not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but are instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair over each period. The differential can be positive (premium) or negative (discount) depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
China
Purchasing Power Parity
Chinese Yuan, Under (-) or Over (+) Valuation vs. US Dollar, OECD PPP, Updates Daily
Purchasing Power Parity measures whether market exchange rates are theoretically overvalued or undervalued. Purchasing Power Parities are conversion rates that attempt to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. Note that market rates can deviate from Purchasing Power Parity rates for years, even decades, at a time - so cannot be used to reliably forecast future exchange rate movements.
Latest Analysis
Dollar softens as US consumers slow spending growth
10 February, 2026
The dollar is weakening and yields are nudging lower after US consumer spending surprisingly flatlined in December, underpinning expectations for more monetary easing in the months ahead. According to...
Political developments roil currency markets
09 February, 2026
Treasury yields are climbing and the dollar is under pressure after Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators have instructed the country’s commercial banks to cut their holdings of American government...
Risk Reversal
08 February, 2026
• Risk rebound. Strong recovery in US equities. USD lost ground. Backdrop pushed NZD & AUD higher. JPY still under pressure post weekend elections.• Data flow. RBA Deputy Gov speaks (Weds). US retail...
Investors cautiously step into market wreckage seeking bargains
06 February, 2026
After several sessions of violent, whiplash price action in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and high-beta technology stocks, investors are hesitantly stepping back in this morning, driving a mean-reversion...
Currency market fireworks remain subdued as traders process conflicting signals
05 February, 2026
Good morning. Foreign exchange markets are caught between conflicting forces as precious metals extend their decline and a sell-off in technology stocks shows signs of exhaustion. Gold and silver prices...
Push-pull forces
04 February, 2026
• Push-pull. A few equity market wobbles overnight. USD a bit firmer. NZD underperforms. AUD retraces its RBA rate hike induced uptick.• Macro events. ECB & BoE expected to hold rates steady tonight....
Tech washout leaves currency markets directionless
04 February, 2026
Foreign exchange markets are looking somewhat rudderless this morning after a technology-led selloff hammered the biggest US stocks yesterday and dampened global risk appetite. The dollar is extending...
Calm returns, dollar resumes its slide
03 February, 2026
Good morning. Foreign exchange markets are trading on a more stable footing as tumult in the precious metals complex eases and the White House leaves its social media accounts in a state of benign neglect....
RBA in focus
02 February, 2026
• Metal vol. Large swings in gold & silver prices. Positive US data supported the USD index. AUD held up thanks to some relative outperformance.• RBA today. On net, a RBA rate hike looks more likely...
Precious metals plunge triggers global selloff
02 February, 2026
A slow-motion flight to safety is underway across the currency markets this morning, as a bloodbath in the precious metals complex extends into a second week. Equity futures are pointing to further losses...