Explore the world.

Assess underlying fundamentals and market conditions in the world's major economies.

Global Overview
Americas
United States
Canada
Mexico
Europe
Euro Area
United Kingdom
Asia Pacific
China
Japan
Australia

Stay ahead.

Follow the biggest stories in markets and economics in real time.

Market Intelligence
Resources
Blog
News
Calendar

Connect with us.

Learn more about Corpay Cross-Border and the currency research team.

Site Background
About
About Us
Our Team
Contact Us

Subscribe

Get insight into the latest trends and developments in global currency markets with breaking news updates and research reports delivered right to your inbox.

After signing up, you will receive regular newsletters from Corpay, and may unsubscribe at any time. View Corpay’s Privacy Policy

China

Economics

Economic Overview

China has become the world’s second largest economy, its biggest exporter of manufactured goods, and an immense consumer of commodities. Although the country is an industrial and exporting giant, its growth since the 2008 financial crisis has been driven largely by investment in infrastructure and real estate. Efforts to increase the share of consumption in the economy have foundered amid persistently high inequality and a threadbare safety net that forces high levels of precautionary savings. Amid limited options, residential real estate remains the dominant vehicle for investment. This in turn means that government efforts to force a gradual deleveraging on a country with high (and rising) debt levels have proceeded in fits and starts. Despite these financial vulnerabilities, China retains a strong capacity for industrial and technological advances.

Outlook
Economics
Markets

China

Real Gross Domestic Product

Gross Domestic Product, Chained 2012 Dollars, Change, %, SA, Released Monthly

Real Gross Domestic Product measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced in the economy. It comprises private consumption and investment, inventory buildup, government spending and net exports. Markets watch this indicator to gauge the strength and composition of growth.

China

Unemployment Rate

Survey Unemployment Rate in Urban Areas, All Persons, %, SA, Updates Monthly

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the labor force currently not working but actively seeking employment. Markets monitor the unemployment rate to assess the cyclical health of the economy and the likelihood that wage demands may increase inflationary pressures.

China

Consumer Price Index

All Items Consumer Price Index, 31 Provinces, Annual Change, %, NSA, Updates Monthly

The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the change over time in the average prices paid by urban and rural consumers for a market basket of goods and services. As the most widely used measure of inflation, changes in the index are closely followed by policymakers, financial markets, businesses, and consumers.

China

Trade Balance

Merchandise Trade Balance, Balance of Payments Basis, Billions USD, SA, Updates Monthly

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported – generating a trade surplus – and a negative number indicates a deficit. Trade imbalances may reflect fleeting differences in growth rates or more permanent factors in the composition of growth or the endowment and price of natural resources.

China

Current Account

Current Account Balance, % of Gross Domestic Product, Updates Quarterly

The Current Account is a record of a country’s transactions with the rest of the world. It measures the difference between the inflows of funds to a country from goods and services exported, income on holdings of foreign assets, remittances and grants received versus the outflow of funds from the same activities. A positive current account balance indicates that the country is a net lender to the rest of the world, while a negative current account balance indicates that it is a net borrower.

China

Policy Rate

Loan Prime Rate, %

The Loan Prime Rate is the lending rate provided by Chinese commercial banks to their most creditworthy customers, and serves as the benchmark for most other loans. Although the Loan Prime Rate is derived from quotes submitted by a group of designated banks, it is believed the People’s Bank of China directly guides the process to achieve desired monetary policy outcomes.

China

Money Supply Growth

M2 Money Supply, Annual Change, %, SA, Updates Monthly

M2 Money Supply is a measure of currency that includes cash, checking deposits, and non-cash assets that can easily be converted into cash. Markets don’t typically respond directly to changes in M2, but growth in the money supply can influence inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates over longer time horizons.

China

Debt Ratios

Credit to General Government, Non-Financial Corporate (Market Value), and Household Sectors, % of Gross Domestic Product, Government at Nominal, Others at Market Value, Updates Quarterly

Aggregate Debt Ratios measure the total borrowing of the general government, non-financial corporate, and household sectors, expressed as a share of gross domestic product. Total debt is followed by investors as a gauge of the vulnerability of an economy to financial shocks. An overly fast pace of debt growth is also frequently associated with a buildup of unproductive investment and excessively high asset valuations.

China

Net International Investment Position

Credit to General Government, Non-Financial Corporate, and Household Sectors, % of Gross Domestic Product at Market Value, Updates Annually

The Net International Investment Position is the difference between the external financial assets and liabilities of a nation. A nation with a positive position is a creditor nation and is generally considered a safe haven in financial markets. A nation with a negative position is a debtor nation, with deeper balance of payments vulnerabilities.

China

Currency Reserves

Official Reserve Assets, Foreign Currency Reserves (in Convertible Foreign Currencies), Billions USD, Updates Monthly

Currency Reserves show external holdings that are freely usable for settlement of international transactions, and are readily available to and controlled by monetary authorities for meeting balance of payments financing needs, for intervention in currency markets to affect exchange rates, and for other related purposes. Developed markets with widely used, freely tradeable international currencies typically provide reserve assets rather than engaging in reserve accumulation.

WORLD

USD

CAD

MXN

EUR

GBP

CNY

JPY

AUD

+ Global

+ United States

+ Canada

+ Mexico

+ Euro Area

+ United Kingdom

+ China

+ Japan

+ Australia

Cognitive dissonance in markets begins to correct
05 December, 2023
Risk-sensitive currencies are giving back some of last week’s gains this morning, tumbling in the face of a resurgent dollar. US Treasury yields are climbing and the greenback is pushing higher as investors begin to question whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates aggressively without a “hard landing” in the economy next year. With unemployment inching up, consumer spending showing clear signs of...
RBA in focus today
04 December, 2023
• Partial reversal. US bond yields & the USD rebounded, while US equities dipped. There was no major economic news overnight.• AUD pull-back. Ahead of today’s RBA decision the AUD has lost ground. No change in rates is anticipated with focus on the RBA’s forward guidance.• US jobs. There is a slew of US jobs data out the next few days that will test expectations looking for no further...
Pivot hopes carry markets higher
04 December, 2023
Markets are blithely ignoring Friday’s hawkish guidance from Jerome Powell. Risk-sensitive assets and high-beta currencies remain well-bid even after the Federal Reserve chair said it was “premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease,” with investors instead choosing to focus on a brief aside in which he acknowledged...
USD doldrums continue
03 December, 2023
• Fed speak. Some measured comments by Chair Powell & weaker ISM data reinforced expectations the next move by the Fed could be a rate cut.• USD weaker. The drop in US bond yields has exerted more pressure on the USD. AUD has risen back up to the top of its multi-month range.• Event radar. Locally, the RBA’s last meeting of ’23 & Q3 GDP are due. Offshore, focus will be on US labour...
Canadian jobs growth tops expectations, but details point to slowdown ahead
01 December, 2023
The Canadian job creation engine topped forecasts in November, firming expectations for another hold at the Bank of Canada’s meeting next week. 25,000 new positions were added in the month, with population growth and still-high participation rates pushing the unemployment rate to 5.8 percent, up from 5.7 percent in October. Consensus estimates had pointed to a 15,000 new hires, with unemployment rising...
The peso’s bull run has run out of steam.
01 December, 2023
After a world-beating drive higher, the Mexican peso lost momentum late in the third quarter and has largely failed to regain it, staging a relatively modest rebound against a retreating dollar. Several factors are in play: A drastic increase in government spending plans – coming ahead of the presidential election in June 2024 – spooked investors. The foreign exchange commission’s decision to unwind...
The fiscal outlook still looks favourable.
01 December, 2023
Under President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s recently unveiled budget plan, Mexico will run its largest deficit since 1988 next year – amounting to roughly -4.9 percent of gross domestic product, up from this year’s -3.3 percent. With global interest rates holding near post-2000 highs, higher borrowing costs could threaten credit ratings and limit the next government’s room for maneuver.  But...
Canada's economy is slowing.
01 December, 2023
With higher borrowing costs and slowing credit growth inflicting serious pain on Canada’s spectacularly indebted private sector, the economy appears poised for a hard landing. The direction of travel for residential investment is clearly down: after an early-2023 dead-cat bounce, prices and activity levels are subsiding across the country, and developers are moving to the sidelines. Energy prices...
Nearshoring hopes look overdone.
01 December, 2023
With geopolitical tensions between the US and China forcing businesses to diversify supply chains, the country’s stability, low labour costs, and geographic proximity have raised hopes that a “Made in Mexico” moment is at hand. Indeed, the country has displaced China as the United States’ largest trading partner. Share of US imports, 12-month moving average, % But under López Obrador,...
Expectations are falling.
01 December, 2023
Market illusions about the relative resilience of Canada’s economy have been exhausted in recent months, and swap-implied rate projections for the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve have converged in a dramatic fashion. Yield differentials and the loonie have come under sustained pressure, with central bankers on both sides of the border now seen delivering rate cuts at a roughly-similar pace through...

About

Contact

Data and information on this website is provided “as is” and for informational purposes only. Information on the website does not bind Corpay in any way; nor is it not intended as advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial products. Data and other information are not warranted as to completeness or accuracy and are subject to change without notice. All charts or graphs are from publicly available sources, or our proprietary data. Nothing in this material should be construed as investment, financial, tax, legal, accounting, regulatory or other advice or as creating a fiduciary relationship. Corpay disclaims any responsibility or liability to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, for any loss or damage arising from any reliance on our use of the data in any way. You should contact your Corpay sales representative for clarification on the range of financial instruments available in your jurisdiction. Copyright Cambridge Mercantile Corp. 2022.