Calendar
Market Events
Calendar
Central bank interest rate decisions and economic data updates can have a profound impact on the currency markets. Our calendars highlight upcoming monetary policy events and data releases that could influence exchange rates, and are regularly updated to reflect changing factor inputs and economic dynamics.
Calendar
Scheduled Economic Events
Calendar
Central Bank Releases
Markets rise on interrupted shutdown
02 October, 2023
US markets are gaining this morning after the government reached a last-minute deal to avert a shutdown – but with the same brinksmanship likely to play out again in less than eight weeks, we’re not sure how long the momentum can last. Equity futures are rising ahead of the open, Treasury yields are pushing toward Friday’s highs, and the dollar is climbing against its major Asian and European...
Up and away
28 September, 2023
Another round of stronger-than-expected US activity data combined with surging oil prices to send Treasury yields roaring to new cyclical peaks yesterday, triggering yet another spike in the dollar. Durable goods orders surprised with a 0.2-percent gain in August – markets had expected a -0.5 percent contraction – and non-defence capital spending climbed 0.9 percent, suggesting that the...
Higher Oil, stronger USD
27 September, 2023
• Oil & bonds. Oil prices have continued to rise. Inflation risks are underpinning bond yields. Relatively higher US yields have supported the USD.• AUD struggles. The stronger USD has washed through FX markets. EUR touched its lowest level since early-January. AUD hit a fresh 2023 low.• Local data. Headline inflation re-accelerated. Improvement in core inflation is slow going. Pressure on the...
Bonds have more fun
27 September, 2023
Treasury yields are retreating from multi-decade highs, helping relieve pressure on equity and foreign exchange markets. North American stock markets look set to open in the green and the dollar is putting in a mixed performance, but the risk-sensitive Canadian dollar is inching lower, and background volatility measures are creeping up.
Bond yields moved higher in yesterday’s session after home prices...
Bearish vibes
26 September, 2023
• Negative sentiment. Elevated bond yields, sluggish US data, & US government shutdown jitters dampened risk sentiment. Equities lower. USD firm.• AUD sluggish. The backdrop has weighed on the EUR & GBP. AUD also a bit lower. Since 2015 AUD has only traded sub ~$0.64 ~2% of the time.• AU CPI. Monthly CPI indicator released today. The large jump in petrol & stickiness across services prices...
Dollar juggernaut maintains momentum
26 September, 2023
Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the highest levels since 2007, and the dollar is close to a nine-month peak Defensive buying ahead of the looming US government shutdown may be playing a role, but the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and gold – traditional safe haven instruments – are showing limited signs of demand.
Instead, we think hawkish interpretations of last week’s dot plot...
Bond yields bounce back
25 September, 2023
• Bond yields. Long-end yields jumped up overnight. US 10yr around its highest since Q4 ’07. This & soft Eurozone growth supported the USD. EUR sub 1.06.• Mixed messages. AUD/USD lost a little ground yesterday, but AUD outperformed its European peers. Positioning metrics appear quite ‘net short’ AUD.• AUD events. Monthly AU CPI indicator due tomorrow & retail sales released...
Weekly Chartbook
25 September, 2023
Weapons of mass disruption
25 September, 2023
In 1939, after the Soviets invaded Poland, Winston Churchill told radio audiences, “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.”
We find ourselves in a similar position. We cannot predict what Russia will do in the coming days, let alone the coming months. We’re not even sure...
Markets turn negative as threat environment worsens
25 September, 2023
Markets are back on the warpath this morning, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar toward cyclical peaks. The US ten-year is holding near 16-year highs, the trade-weighted greenback is at its strongest levels in six months, risk-sensitive currencies are retreating, and global oil benchmarks keep pushing toward the $100 per barrel mark.
Two major factors are bolstering the US exceptionalism...