Markets Blog
• Upbeat tone. US equities have rebounded over recent days, while bond yields & the USD lost ground. AUD & NZD have edged a little higher.• US macro. A run of weak US data has boosted Fed rate cut expectations. US CPI inflation & retail sales are a couple of important releases out next week.• Data flow. China trade data due today. Bank of England expected to cut rates. Next week RBA looks...
The dollar is plunging after the US labour market hit a wall last month, reinforcing market expectations for at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the back half of the year. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, just 73,000 jobs were added in July – representing an undershoot relative to the 105,000-consensus forecast – and the unemployment rate...
• Mixed markets. Equities slipped back & USD ticked up overnight. AUD & NZD remain on the backfoot. JPY weaker after some BoJ comments.• US data. US jobs report out tonight. There has been a tendency for non-farm payrolls to exceed analyst forecasts the past few months. Will this continue?• AUD trends. The unfolding pull-back in the AUD isn’t unusual at this time of year. Late-July/August...
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure exhibited signs of acceleration last month even as personal spending growth slowed, providing more evidence of a “stagflation-lite” situation in the US economy. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index—which excludes food and energy costs—rising 0.3 percent in June from the...
• USD strength. Positive USD data & a patient Fed has supported the USD. This has weighed on other currencies like the AUD & NZD.• AU CPI. Q2 inflation softer than predicted. This reinforced expectations looking for the RBA to cut rates in August & deliver more ‘relief’ later this year.• Seasonal trends. USD rebound & unfolding AUD weakness inline with seasonal patterns...
The Federal Reserve downgraded its assessment of the economy even as it held interest rates steady for a fifth straight meeting, and stopped short of executing the sort of communications pivot that might have prepared markets for an imminent rate cut. The Federal Open Market Committee voted in a split 9-2 decision to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 4.25 to 4.50 percent—a...