Markets Blog
Last week’s modest recovery in the dollar is showing signs of exhaustion this morning as investors brace for a week dominated by speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the 4.1-percent mark and stock market futures are pointing to incremental selling at the open after hitting new record highs in Friday’s session, while the euro and pound advance...
• Holding on. Quiet end to last week. US equities at record levels. US yields & USD tick up. AUD eased back further. AUD’s first weekly fall in a month.• Event Radar. Global PMIs due (Tues). US PCE deflator also out (Fri). US Fed Chair Powell speaks (Weds AEST). AU CPI indicator scheduled (Weds). Global Trends It was a fairly quiet end to the week after the burst of US Fed inspired volatility...
• Fed moves. US Fed cut rates by 25bps & flagged more down the track. But this was priced. A burst of vol. overnight. AUD slipped back from ~11mth highs.• Rate cuts. Chair Powell labelled it ‘risk management’. But negative labour market trends point to a steady stream of Fed rate cuts, in our view.• Data flow. Bank of Canada also cut rates overnight. NZ GDP weaker than expected. Australian...
• Mixed markets. US equities consolidated while yields dipped & USD weakened. EUR at multi-year high. AUD at levels last traded in November.• US Fed. Tomorrow’s Fed decision in the spotlight. After being on hold since December the US Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps.• Signals matter. Fed’s guidance in focus. More cuts anticipated over coming months. But Fed may struggle to be more...
• Consolidation. Quieter markets on Friday. US equities near record highs. USD tread water. AUD hovering near the top of its multi-month range.• Central banks. US Fed expected to re-start its cutting cycle. Focus will be on updated guidance. Markets pricing in a series of Fed rate reductions.• Event Radar. China data today. Australia jobs report scheduled (Thurs). NZ GDP due. US Fed the focal point...
• Upbeat vibes. Largely as expected US CPI reinforced US Fed rate cut thinking. US equities rose. USD softer. AUD touched a 10-month high.• US cuts. US Fed looks set to cut rates next week. A steady downshift should unfold, in our opinion. This is a medium-term USD headwind.• Data flow. On top of the US Fed meeting next week China data is due (Mon), as are US retail sales (Tues night). AU employment...