Canada
Canada
Spot Exchange Rate
Indicative Interbank Spot Exchange Rate, Price of 1 US Dollar in Canadian Dollars, Updates Daily
The spot exchange rate is the indicative exchange rate applied to interbank foreign exchange transactions that are settled on the spot date – typically within two working days. The “base currency” is the first currency appearing in the pair, followed by the second part of the quotation, called the “counter currency”. The exchange rate indicates how much of the counter currency is needed to buy one unit of the base currency.
Canada
Year to Date Performance
Gain or Loss Relative to USD, Year to Date, Updates Daily
Represents the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate relative to the US dollar year to date.
Canada
Annual Movement
Year-To-Date % Change in CADUSD Exchange Rate, Adjusted for Breaks, Updated Daily
Historical Movement compares this year’s exchange rate movement – the thick black line – with movement in previous years – the thinner blue lines – to illustrate the degree to which the rate has moved. Performance is equal to the percentage gain or loss in the exchange rate realized over the number of trading days shown on the horizontal axis.
Canada
Currency Volatility
Realized 3-Month Historical USDCAD Currency Volatility v. Implied Volatility, 3-Month ATM Options, Updates Weekly
Represents realized volatility - the scale and frequency of moves over the prior three months - and implied volatility - the market’s expectations of moves over the next three months. Realized volatility is measured using the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over a three-month rolling time horizon, and implied volatility is derived from at-the-money three-month currency options.
Canada
Probability Analysis
Estimated USDCAD Expiration Range By Confidence Interval, Updates Daily
The Probability Analysis chart, based on a standard deviation bell curve, uses realized historical volatility to illustrate the likelihood that the exchange rate will end within a defined trading band at expiry. For example, we can be confident that 85 out of 100 times, the exchange rate will fall within the upper and lower bounds shown at the 85% confidence interval – and the exchange rate could end above or below these bounds in 15 out of 100 cases. Please Note: The confidence intervals depicted are generalized measures of probability based upon a parametric/ delta-normal analysis of a 5-year historical distribution of market movements, and are used to estimate the exchange rate uncertainties associated with different currencies and time periods. Smaller or larger movements than those outlined are possible. In currency markets specifically, major political and economic events can trigger moves that exceed any historically-driven model parameters.
Canada
Forward Differential
Indicative 12-Month USDCAD Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The 12-month forward differential quantifies the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and a 12-month outright forward contract. This difference does not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but is instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair. The differential can be positive or negative depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Canada
Forward Curve
Indicative 12-Month USDCAD Forward Points by Month, Updates Weekly
The forward curve illustrates the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and outright forward contracts for various future dates. These differences do not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but are instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair over each period. The differential can be positive (premium) or negative (discount) depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Canada
Yield Differential
10-Year CAD-USD Government Bond Yield Differential, %, Updates Weekly
The Yield Differential chart illustrates the difference between 10-year Canadian government bond yields and their equivalent US Treasury yields. Positive values indicate a higher yield in Canadian dollars than in US dollars, while negative values imply the opposite.
Canada
Speculative Positioning
Net Long (+) or Short (-) Canadian Dollar Futures Position, Billions US Dollars, Updates Weekly
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in US futures markets. Market participants follow the data to identify extreme long or short positions in a currency - something that can signal a trend reversal.
Canada
Purchasing Power Parity
Canadian Dollar, Under (-) or Over (+) Valuation vs. US Dollar, OECD PPP, Updates Daily
Purchasing Power Parity measures whether market exchange rates are theoretically overvalued or undervalued. Purchasing Power Parities are conversion rates that attempt to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. Note that market rates can deviate from Purchasing Power Parity rates for years, even decades, at a time – so cannot be used to reliably forecast future exchange rate movements.
Latest Analysis
Latest Analysis
Holding on
25 March, 2025
• Push-pull. Modest market moves overnight. US equities ticked up, bond yields dipped. Copper rose. USD a bit softer. AUD edged back over ~$0.63• AU Budget. Small surprise tax cut starts in mid-2026. RBA...
Tariff guessing game
23 March, 2025
• Hold the line. US equities ticked up on Friday, as did the USD. EUR & GBP eased back at the end of last week, as did the AUD & NZD.• Tariff news. US’ reciprocal tariffs set to be unveiled...
Swings & roundabouts
20 March, 2025
• Jitters return. Post-US Fed optimism faded. Equities slipped back. USD index rose. NZD & AUD depreciated. AUD near ~$0.63, its March average.• AU jobs. February figures had more noise than signal....
An uncertain world
19 March, 2025
• US Fed. No surprises with the Fed keeping interest rates on hold & noting uncertainty has “increased” due to what is happening policy-wise.• Mixed markets. US equities rose while bond...
Upbeat risk sentiment
17 March, 2025
• Positive tone. Solid start to the week for risk assets. Equities rose, as did copper. USD softer. NZD (+1.3%) & AUD (+1%) outperform.• Macro trends. China data showed signs of improving momentum....
Can the positive sentiment last?
16 March, 2025
• Positive vibes. Prospect of more China stimulus & German fiscal spending supported sentiment. Equities rose on Friday, as did AUD & NZD.• Tariff impacts. US tariff effects showing up in the data....
Ongoing tariff risk
13 March, 2025
• Tariff news. Threats of more tit-for-tat tariff moves between the US & EU unnerved markets. Equities & bond yields fell. AUD & NZD dip.• More vol. S&P500 now in “correction”...
Tariffs & inflation
12 March, 2025
• Improved sentiment. After a difficult spell risk appetite improved a little overnight. US equities rose, as did bond yields. AUD & NZD edged higher.• Tariff news. After the US confirmed tariffs on...
EUR upswing continues
09 March, 2025
• US jobs. Lukewarm US jobs report didn’t stir the market pot. US equities rose, as did bond yields. EUR extended its upswing. AUD drifted back.• EUR strength. Prospect of more EU fiscal spending...
Trade War Nerves Offset Stale Jobs Reports
07 March, 2025
Markets have joined economists in thinking that trade wars really aren’t good, or easy to win. After weeks of dizzying changes in US tariff policies, the S&P 500 is down 7 percent from all-time highs,...