Canada
Canada
Spot Exchange Rate
Indicative Interbank Spot Exchange Rate, Price of 1 US Dollar in Canadian Dollars, Updates Daily
The spot exchange rate is the indicative exchange rate applied to interbank foreign exchange transactions that are settled on the spot date – typically within two working days. The “base currency” is the first currency appearing in the pair, followed by the second part of the quotation, called the “counter currency”. The exchange rate indicates how much of the counter currency is needed to buy one unit of the base currency.
Canada
Year to Date Performance
Gain or Loss Relative to USD, Year to Date, Updates Daily
Represents the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate relative to the US dollar year to date.
Canada
Annual Movement
Year-To-Date % Change in CADUSD Exchange Rate, Adjusted for Breaks, Updated Daily
Historical Movement compares this year’s exchange rate movement – the thick black line – with movement in previous years – the thinner blue lines – to illustrate the degree to which the rate has moved. Performance is equal to the percentage gain or loss in the exchange rate realized over the number of trading days shown on the horizontal axis.
Canada
Currency Volatility
Realized 3-Month Historical USDCAD Currency Volatility v. Implied Volatility, 3-Month ATM Options, Updates Weekly
Represents realized volatility - the scale and frequency of moves over the prior three months - and implied volatility - the market’s expectations of moves over the next three months. Realized volatility is measured using the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over a three-month rolling time horizon, and implied volatility is derived from at-the-money three-month currency options.
Canada
Probability Analysis
Estimated USDCAD Expiration Range By Confidence Interval, Updates Daily
The Probability Analysis chart, based on a standard deviation bell curve, uses realized historical volatility to illustrate the likelihood that the exchange rate will end within a defined trading band at expiry. For example, we can be confident that 85 out of 100 times, the exchange rate will fall within the upper and lower bounds shown at the 85% confidence interval – and the exchange rate could end above or below these bounds in 15 out of 100 cases. Please Note: The confidence intervals depicted are generalized measures of probability based upon a parametric/ delta-normal analysis of a 5-year historical distribution of market movements, and are used to estimate the exchange rate uncertainties associated with different currencies and time periods. Smaller or larger movements than those outlined are possible. In currency markets specifically, major political and economic events can trigger moves that exceed any historically-driven model parameters.
Canada
Forward Differential
Indicative 12-Month USDCAD Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The 12-month forward differential quantifies the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and a 12-month outright forward contract. This difference does not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but is instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair. The differential can be positive or negative depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Canada
Forward Curve
Indicative 12-Month USDCAD Forward Points by Month, Updates Weekly
The forward curve illustrates the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and outright forward contracts for various future dates. These differences do not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but are instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair over each period. The differential can be positive (premium) or negative (discount) depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Canada
Yield Differential
10-Year CAD-USD Government Bond Yield Differential, %, Updates Weekly
The Yield Differential chart illustrates the difference between 10-year Canadian government bond yields and their equivalent US Treasury yields. Positive values indicate a higher yield in Canadian dollars than in US dollars, while negative values imply the opposite.
Canada
Speculative Positioning
Net Long (+) or Short (-) Canadian Dollar Futures Position, Billions US Dollars, Updates Weekly
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in US futures markets. Market participants follow the data to identify extreme long or short positions in a currency - something that can signal a trend reversal.
Canada
Purchasing Power Parity
Canadian Dollar, Under (-) or Over (+) Valuation vs. US Dollar, OECD PPP, Updates Daily
Purchasing Power Parity measures whether market exchange rates are theoretically overvalued or undervalued. Purchasing Power Parities are conversion rates that attempt to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. Note that market rates can deviate from Purchasing Power Parity rates for years, even decades, at a time – so cannot be used to reliably forecast future exchange rate movements.
Latest Analysis
Latest Analysis
Trading Ranges Shrink As Fed Decision Looms
18 September, 2024
Happy Fed Day to all who observe. With hours to go before the world’s most powerful central bank delivers its first post-pandemic rate cut, investors still have no clarity on how big it will be. The dollar...
US Retail Sales Climb, Canadian Inflation Slows More Than Expected
17 September, 2024
US retail spending climbed last month, suggesting that underlying consumer demand continues to play a supportive role in powering growth – but gains were somewhat mixed below the headline level,...
Currency Markets Turn Jittery Ahead of Fed
17 September, 2024
Markets are caught in an uneasy equilibrium as the Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting. The dollar is changing hands at its weakest levels since January, the Japanese yen is retreating from yesterday’s...
Second Trump Assassination Attempt Leaves Markets Unruffled
16 September, 2024
Financial markets are calm and there are no signs of a resurgence in the ‘Trump trade’ after Secret Service agents fired on a gunman at the former president’s Florida golf course. Prediction markets are...
Dollar Retreats As Fed Pricing Shifts
13 September, 2024
Volatility is reverting lower across the financial markets, even as investors swerve between opposing viewpoints on what the Federal Reserve will do next week. The dollar is back on the defensive, Treasury...
Currencies Stabilise As Fed Expectations Retrace
12 September, 2024
Markets are recovering their footing after slipping on a banana peel early in yesterday’s session.
August’s consumer price reading landed very close to economist expectations on a headline level, but...
Dollar Jumps on Hotter-Than-Anticipated Core Inflation Print
11 September, 2024
Consumer price growth accelerated slightly in the United States last month, threatening to derail a more aggressive kickoff to the Federal Reserve’s imminent easing cycle. According to data published by...
Dollar Retreats as Trump's Odds Slip
11 September, 2024
Financial markets are in relief mode this morning after Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris for president, reducing demand for hedges against a rally in the dollar or a resumption in trade war hostilities....
USD bouncing back
09 September, 2024
• Shaky sentiment. A bit of a rebound in risk sentiment overnight following more turbulence on Friday after the US jobs report & Fed comments.• Market swings. US yields near bottom of their range....
Mean Reversion Dominates Markets After Inconclusive Jobs Report
09 September, 2024
Friday’s non-farm payrolls report failed to definitively settle the debate over the size of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut. Markets initially added to bets on a plus-sized move after the Bureau of...