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Latest Commentary
Latest Commentary
Inflation Progress Stalls, Putting Fed Cuts Further Out of Reach
26 April, 2024
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure remained stuck at elevated levels in March, but a feared overshoot was avoided, helping alleviate market tensions. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.3 percent in March from the prior month, but January’s number was revised higher to 0.5 percent, bringing the...
Markets Mark Time Into Key US Inflation Print
26 April, 2024
Good morning, and welcome back. The US dollar and Treasury yields are holding steady at elevated levels after a first-quarter gross domestic product report pushed easing expectations further out. North American equity indices are advancing in the premarket on the back of another set of monster earnings releases from Microsoft and Alphabet. Oil prices are stable, and risk-sensitive currencies are eking...
Stagflation worries return
25 April, 2024
• Stagflation concerns. Slower US growth & sticky inflation rattled nerves. US yields rose. Equities slipped back. But on net the USD eased.• AUD rebound. The positive Q1 Australian CPI surprise & repricing in RBA rate expectations has underpinned the AUD over the past few days.• BoJ today. No changes expected, but upgrades to inflation forecasts could see the BoJ deliver a ‘hawkish’...
Currencies Stabilise as Expected Growth Differentials Narrow
23 April, 2024
The dollar is holding steady and Treasuries are stable ahead of auctions that could see yields hold above the 5-percent threshold for the first time since November. The US will sell a record $69 billion in two-year notes later today, followed by $70 billion in five-year paper tomorrow, and another $44 billion in seven-year maturities on Thursday, testing investor demand for yields that could look attractive...
Will the positive vibes last?
22 April, 2024
• Positive tone. Equities rose & bond yields slipped back. No new news was good news for markets. AUD edged higher & outperformed on the crosses.• Business PMIs. European & US PMIs released today. Leading indicators point to a pick up in global industrial activity over coming months.• AU CPI. Australian quarterly inflation due tomorrow. Signs the improvement in core inflation is stalling...
Markets Recover As Geopolitical Risk Premia Evaporate
22 April, 2024
The dollar is retreating and Treasury yields are slipping as geopolitical tensions ease and traders shift focus toward more prosaic market drivers. After a weekend in which Israel and Iran refrained from further escalation, North American equity indices are setting up for a positive open, oil and safe-haven gold prices are heading lower, and a range of major currencies are inching higher against the...
Sentiment swings
21 April, 2024
• Burst of vol. Middle East tensions generated some vol. on Friday. The initial ‘risk off’ moves faded. US bond yields reversed course. The AUD rebounded.• Lofty USD. US interest rates have repriced a lot recently. Less than 40bps of Fed cuts now assumed in 2024. The USD may need a new driver to go higher.• Event radar. Locally, Q1 CPI is due (Weds). Offshore, Eurozone PMIs (Tues), US GDP...
Israeli Strike Triggers Short-Lived Volatility Spike
19 April, 2024
Foreign exchange markets are slowly reverting to normal after suffering a major selloff last night when Israel launched strikes against targets near the Iranian city of Isfahan – home to facilities associated with the country’s nuclear program, including its underground Natanz enrichment site. Risk-sensitive currencies plunged amid a wholesale flight to safety as initial reports flooded in, but...
Dollar Juggernaut Slows, But Remains Powerful
17 April, 2024
Treasury yields are slipping and the dollar appears on the verge of snapping a five-day winning streak, but losses look likely to remain moderate after Fed chair Jerome Powell effectively reset the clock on rate cuts, suggesting that the central bank would need to see several more monthly inflation reports before beginning to ease policy. Speaking during a question-and-answer session in Washington...
Higher for (even) longer
16 April, 2024
• Fed speak. Chair Powell endorsed the upswing in rates pricing by noting the lack of further progress on inflation. US yields rise, equities fall.• USD support. The rates outlook is underpinning the USD. AUD touched its lowest level since mid-November with USD trends overpowering China GDP.• Priced in? Markets are now discounting a very ‘hawkish’ Fed interest rate outlook. The lofty USD...
Featured Views
Featured Views
The 'soft landing' consensus has grown overpowering.
15 December, 2023
The belief among investors that the Federal Reserve would cut rates aggressively in 2024, even in the absence of a growth or employment shock had become near-universal even before the central bank’s decisively-dovish pivot at the December policy meeting.
Inflation is fading quickly. Energy and manufactured goods prices are still coming down, and our estimates suggest that the Fed’s preferred measure—the...
US economic outperformance is likely to fade.
15 December, 2023
Markets risk turning overoptimistic on underlying trends: Fiscal support is turning negative, consumer spending is running on fumes as savings rates run well below, and pre-pandemic norms diffusion indices are pointing to a renewed rise in unemployment rates.
Non-farm employment diffusion indices, share of industries reporting growth (unchanged cut by half)
As the lagged effects of monetary...
The euro area is coming in for a hard landing.
15 December, 2023
A series of data releases in December showed growth slowing more aggressively in the early fourth quarter as activity in the manufacturing and services sectors weakened. The decline in year-over-year data appears consistent with a recessionary downturn.
Citi Economic Data Change Indices
To some degree, the economy is suffering from lagging effects associated with last year’s energy shock, exposure...
Disinflationary forces are growing more powerful.
15 December, 2023
The global inflation shock is fading fast. After soaring for the better part of two years, food- and energy-driven headline price measures are coming down more quickly than expected, and core inflation rates (i.e., excluding food and shelter) have tumbled across all major developed economies.
With supply chains now largely repaired, Western consumer demand slowing, and the Chinese government pouring...
Recession risks remain significant.
15 December, 2023
The British industrial sector remains mired in contraction, house prices are falling, labour markets are softening, and a broad array of underlying growth indicators are pointing to slowing momentum. With the full impact of higher policy rates yet to hit home, most forecasters currently expect the economy to exhibit stagflation-esque characteristics in 2024 – consensus estimates show inflation...
Policy settings look too tight.
15 December, 2023
A range of measures designed to approximate the euro area neutral rate are indicating that policy rates are becoming increasingly restrictive, and credit flows within the bloc’s bank-dominated financial system have collapsed, with October’s data showing the biggest 12-month drop in lending to businesses and households since the euro crisis.
12-month change in loans by euro area monetary financial...
Economies are losing momentum.
15 December, 2023
Most of the major industrialized economies are showing signs of slowing. Although wages are beginning to outpace inflation in many countries, real household purchasing power remains weaker across most income strata. Excess savings, accumulated during the pandemic, have largely evaporated, and consumers are increasingly tapping sources of credit to sustain spending. The legacy of this year’s sharp rise...
Inflation risks are looking less idiosyncratic.
15 December, 2023
It is increasingly obvious that price pressures in the UK have simply lagged their international counterparts in this cycle, and are likely to fade at a relatively comparable pace in the early new year. All-items inflation rose just 3.9 percent in the year to November, the slowest pace since September 2021, and core – which has trailed headline inflation in all major developed economies, fell...
A modest reversal could unfold.
15 December, 2023
Fading inflation pressures should boost real household incomes in the months ahead, helping support a stronger-than-anticipated rebound in consumer demand within key European markets. Industrial production levels might eke out a modest improvement if Chinese stimulus spending begins flowing in earnest and global inventory cycles normalize. And as rate expectations fall, financial conditions in the...
Financial conditions are easing.
15 December, 2023
With the balance of inflation risks swiftly tilting to the downside, markets expect central banks to begin normalizing policy settings in the coming months. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments during a mid-December post-decision press conference were widely read as implying a willingness to follow canonical policy guidelines—like the Taylor Rule—in moving even before evidence of a downturn...