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Australia

Markets

Australia

Spot Exchange Rate

Indicative Interbank Spot Exchange Rate, Price of 1 Australian Dollar in US Dollars, Updates Daily

The spot exchange rate is the indicative exchange rate applied to interbank foreign exchange transactions that are settled on the spot date – typically within two working days. The “base currency” is the first currency appearing in the pair, followed by the second part of the quotation, called the “counter currency”. The exchange rate indicates how much of the counter currency is needed to buy one unit of the base currency.

Australia

Year to Date Performance

Gain or Loss Relative to USD, Year to Date, Updates Daily

Represents the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate relative to the US dollar year to date.

Australia

Annual Movement

Year-To-Date % Change in AUDUSD Exchange Rate, Adjusted for Breaks, Updates Daily

Historical Movement compares this year’s exchange rate movement – the thick white line – with movement in previous years – the thinner blue lines – to illustrate the degree to which the rate has moved. Performance is equal to the percentage gain or loss in the exchange rate realized over the number of trading days shown on the horizontal axis.

Australia

Currency Volatility

Realized 3-Month Historical AUDUSD Volatility v. Implied Volatility, 3-Month ATM Options, Updates Weekly

Represents realized volatility - the scale and frequency of moves over the prior three months - and implied volatility - the market’s expectations of moves over the next three months. Realized volatility is measured using the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over a three-month rolling time horizon, and implied volatility is derived from at-the-money three-month currency options.

Australia

Probability Analysis

Estimated AUDUSD Expiration Range By Confidence Interval, Updates Daily

The Probability Analysis chart, based on a standard deviation bell curve, uses realized historical volatility to illustrate the likelihood that the exchange rate will end within a defined trading band at expiry. For example, we can be confident that 85 out of 100 times, the exchange rate will fall within the upper and lower bounds shown at the 85% confidence interval - and the exchange rate could end above or below these bounds in 15 out of 100 cases.

Please Note: The confidence intervals depicted are generalized measures of probability based upon a parametric/ delta-normal analysis of a 5-year historical distribution of market movements, and are used to estimate the exchange rate uncertainties associated with different currencies and time periods. Smaller or larger movements than those outlined are possible. In currency markets specifically, major political and economic events can trigger moves that exceed any historically-driven model parameters.

Australia

Forward Differential

Indicative 12-Month AUDUSD Forward Points, Updates Weekly

The 12-month forward differential quantifies the difference - expressed in basis points - between the prevailing spot exchange rate and a 12-month outright forward contract. This difference does not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but is instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair. The differential can be positive or negative depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.

Australia

Forward Curve

Indicative AUDUSD Forward Points, Updates Weekly

The forward curve illustrates the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and outright forward contracts for various future dates. These differences do not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but are instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair over each period. The differential can be positive (premium) or negative (discount) depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.

Australia

Yield Differential

10-Year AUD-USD Government Bond Yield Differential, %, Updates Weekly

The Yield Differential chart illustrates the difference between 10-year Australian government bond yields and their equivalent US Treasury yields. Positive values indicate higher yields in Australian dollars than in US dollars, while negative values imply the opposite.

Australia

Speculative Positioning

Net Long (+) or Short (-) Australian Dollar Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars, Updates Weekly

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in US futures markets. Market participants follow the data to identify extreme long or short positions in a currency - something that can signal a trend reversal.

Australia

Purchasing Power Parity

Australian Dollar, Under (-) or Over (+) Valuation vs. US Dollar, OECD PPP, Updates Daily

Purchasing Power Parity measures whether market exchange rates are theoretically overvalued or undervalued. Purchasing Power Parities are conversion rates that attempt to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. Note that market rates can deviate from Purchasing Power Parity rates for years, even decades, at a time - so cannot be used to reliably forecast future exchange rate movements.

Latest Analysis

Latest Analysis