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Ceasefire optimism fades, leaving markets in retracement mode
Markets are giving back some of yesterday’s gains as doubts mount over Tuesday’s US-Iran ceasefire agreement, with Israel pressing its assault on targets in Lebanon, Tehran showing no sign of easing its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, and all sides remaining far apart on basic terms. Both the Brent and West Texas Intermediate global crude oil benchmarks are knocking on the $100 threshold once again,...
Fragile ceasefire
• Holding up. Markets held onto yesterday’s gains stemming from the US/Iran ceasefire news. However there wasn’t much additional follow through in FX.• AUD & NZD. AUD near top of its ~2-week range. But lingering issues are a headwind. RBNZ’s ‘hawkish’ vibes may help NZD recoup more lost ground. Global Trends Risk sentiment has remained positive over the past 24hrs...
Iran relief rally punishes dollar
A tentative relief rally is unfolding across global markets after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with yields falling, equities climbing, and the dollar tumbling against its major rivals in early action. US president Donald Trump yesterday threatened to hit civilian targets across Iran, wiping out a “whole civilization,” but reversed direction before his self-imposed deadline, claiming...
Let's make a deal
• US/Iran ceasefire. News of a ceasefire has boosted risk sentiment. Equity futures higher, oil lower, USD weaker. AUD & NZD at multi-week highs.• Lingering issues. Developments are a positive. But economic aftershocks of events still in the pipeline. RBNZ meets today. No change in rates expected. Global Trends Markets have been on edge to see if President Trump crystallizes his ramped-up threats...
Oil prices plunge as US finds off-ramp in Iran conflict
Oil prices are plunging and currency markets are reversing direction after US President Donald Trump said he would “suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks,” “subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz”. “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen,...
Trump speech lands with a thud in financial markets
Good morning. Oil prices jumped and currency markets slid back into risk-aversion mode last night when Donald Trump claimed the US-Israeli war against Iran was “nearing completion” but failed to offer a clear timeline and threatened more attacks. In a 19-minute address from the White House, the president said “We are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly, very shortly,”...

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