Corpay Currency Research
Corpay Currency Research delivers daily market updates, macroeconomic analysis, and longer-term forecasts to help you make fast, confident, and informed decisions on foreign exchange risk — wherever your organisation is exposed.
Good morning. Oil prices are back above $100 a barrel, yields are climbing, and the dollar is once again in the ascendant as Iran steps up its attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and traders keep a wary eye on a storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico. Brent futures are trading near $102 a barrel after several strikes were reported overnight and forecasters warned that the first Atlantic hurricane...
Good morning. The dollar is retreating, but remains near its highest levels since April last year, even as energy prices ease modestly and Treasury yields inch lower. Data released yesterday showed the US services sector remaining in expansionary territory last month, with strong demand adding to the strain on supply chains and raising price pressures, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may need to...
Happy Monday. The dollar is trading near its strongest levels since last year’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff debacle, and measures of implied volatility are climbing as long-term borrowing costs soar and fears of another sovereign-debt crisis stalk the euro area. Virtually every major currency is in an oversold technical position relative to the greenback, with most pairs trading almost 2% below their...
The US job creation engine decelerated sharply in September, adding to market bets on a short pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign in October. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 29,000 jobs were added in the month—representing an undershoot relative to the 90,000-consensus forecast—while the previous two months were revised down by a total 60,000 positions, bringing the three-month...
• Bond yields. Bonds still in the driver’s seat. Worries about government debt widen spreads across Europe. EUR lower, USD higher. AUD still on backfoot.• Data pulse. US ISM in ‘expansionary’ territory. Eurozone CPI & US jobs report due tonight. More volatility in interest rate expectations & FX likely.
Global Trends
Gyrations in global bond markets continue to be front...
Good morning. Government borrowing costs are pushing to multi-decade highs around the world this morning as a brutal selloff in bond markets intensifies. Ten-year Treasury yields are up 0.04 percentage points to 5.34%, their highest levels since 2002, Japanese bonds are going for the most since the mid-nineties, and rates in most other advanced economies are edging past thresholds last touched ahead...