Corpay Currency Research
Corpay Currency Research delivers daily market updates, macroeconomic analysis, and longer-term forecasts to help you make fast, confident, and informed decisions on foreign exchange risk — wherever your organisation is exposed.
Donald Trump is set to spend the final two years of his presidency facing unified Congressional opposition. With results still coming in, major broadcasters are giving Democrats greater than 95% odds of flipping both the House and the Senate in today’s midterm elections.
Investors had anticipated a Republican defeat. Data ahead of the vote showed Donald Trump with the lowest approval rating of any...
• Push/pull forces. Rebound in tech stocks boosted US equities. US mid-term elections in focus today. Potential for bursts of USD volatility over period ahead.• RBA hike. RBA raised rates to 4.85%, high since 2008. AUD slips back. Worsening growth outlook & split RBA vote suggests hiking phase may be over.
Global Trends
There have been a few intermittent gyrations across markets over the past...
The Canadian dollar has endured a series of consecutive blows that might reasonably have been expected to break it. The abrupt collapse of the shale boom, a worldwide pandemic, the unwinding of a generational housing bubble, and a trade war with Canada’s largest trading partner have followed one another in disorienting succession. Yet the loonie has held within a narrow range for most of the past ten...
Good morning, and happy Halloween.
Currency and government bond markets are holding steady after a week in which monetary and fiscal policymakers largely delivered on expectations: the Bank of Canada raised rates; the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan all held; and in Britain, Chancellor Healey delivered a well-telegraphed, fiscally moderate Budget that kept investors...
The Canadian economy slowed in August and appears to have contracted in September, endangering hawkish expectations for the Bank of Canada’s policy trajectory. Numbers released by Statistics Canada this morning showed real gross domestic product flatlining in month-over-month terms in August, undershooting market expectations – and the agency’s own preliminary estimate – for a 0.2% gain. On a year-over-year...
The European Central Bank left rates unchanged as expected this morning, but the accompanying communications helped investors calibrate policy expectations for the year ahead.
The statement itself was fairly anodyne. Officials reiterated that they were not committed to any particular rate path and would continue to take a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. They acknowledged that a larger...