Corpay Currency Research
Corpay Currency Research delivers daily market updates, macroeconomic analysis, and longer-term forecasts to help you make fast, confident, and informed decisions on foreign exchange risk — wherever your organisation is exposed.
Happy Friday. Global equity indices are rebounding this morning after Citadel, Ken Griffin’s investment firm, stepped in to acquire the portfolio of technology-focused fund Situational Awareness, which had come under extreme stress as declining valuations forced it to meet margin calls from its lenders. The rescue of 25-year-old* Leopold Aschenbrenner’s firm reduces the risk of a disorderly liquidation...
• JPY jump. Sizeable drop in USD/JPY, reportedly due to intervention. This has weighed on the USD & pushed AUD up to levels last traded in mid-June.• Market pulse. BoJ meets today. Could it deliver a surprise hike? BoE kept rates steady overnight. US GDP underwhelmed but underlying detail was solid.
Global Trends
A flurry of excitement across markets overnight with FX in the spotlight. The...
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure climbed by slightly less than expected last month and underlying growth in the US economy remained robust in the second quarter, helping keep near-term expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory intact.
Monthly data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising...
Good morning. The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish hold yesterday, leaving rates unchanged while laying the groundwork for future hikes. The statement was broadly unchanged from June, but three officials—Beth Hammack, Lorie Logan and Neel Kashkari—dissented in favour of an immediate increase, up from two at the prior meeting and illustrative of a growing tightening bias on the committee. Markets...
• Market forces. Renewed Middle East tensions push up oil. Equities dip. USD a bit softer after the US Fed holds policy steady. AUD underperforms.• AU CPI. Q2 inflation better than feared. Market pricing for another RBA rate hike pared back. Shift in relative yield spreads an AUD headwind.
Global Trends
After a few positive days risk assets came under some pressure overnight. Renewed tensions in...
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and delivered its clearest signal yet that upside risks to inflation now outweigh downside risks to employment in Kevin Warsh’s second meeting as chair—a hawkish bias underscored by three votes in favour of an immediate hike. After two days of discussion, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9–3 to maintain the target range for the federal...