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The US job creation engine decelerated sharply last month, partially reversing market bets on a more hawkish policy stance from the Federal Reserve this year. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 92,000 jobs were lost in February—representing a major downside surprise relative to the 55,000-consensus forecast—while the previous two months were revised down by a total 69,000...
• Oil jump. Another move higher in oil prices because of Middle East concerns dampened risk sentiment. Equities fell. USD firmer. AUD underperforms.• Macro worries. Higher energy prices pose an upside risk to inflation & downside risk to growth. More bouts of market & AUD volatility likely.
Global Trends
Market volatility related to developments in the Middle East and swings in the oil...
Good morning. Currency markets are still struggling to navigate conflicting signals from the Middle East. Iran’s deputy foreign minister reportedly told Sky News Arabia that Tehran might be willing to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile in “return for something good”, but an empty tanker was struck off the coast of Kuwait overnight, pointing to a widening campaign against Gulf shipping....
An uneasy sense of calm is settling on currency markets this morning as signs emerge that the conflict in the Middle East may be approaching a negotiated end. According to the New York Times, Iranian intelligence officials have made indirect contact with their US counterparts to “discuss terms for ending the conflict,” dovetailing with a shift in tone from president Trump, who said in a Sunday interview...
• Market swings. Middle East conflict generated a burst of volatility overnight. Equities declined, oil prices rose. AUD traded in a ~2.5% range yesterday.• Macro news. AU Q4 GDP today. RBA Gov. Bullock noted the March meeting is “live”. China PMIs also due. US ISM services & ADP employment out tonight.
Global Trends
The broadening conflict in the Middle East and concerns that it...
Good morning. The dollar is steamrolling its major rivals for a second consecutive session as geopolitical risks and inflation fears reinforce one another. With the conflict in the Middle East showing few signs of easing, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz effectively halted, traders are unwinding cross-border positions and retreating to the world’s deepest and most liquid financial markets...