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Good morning. Foreign exchange markets are trading on a more stable footing as tumult in the precious metals complex eases and the White House leaves its social media accounts in a state of benign neglect. Gold and silver prices are up five and ten percent respectively from their lows, North American equity markets appear set for an advance at the open after yesterday’s higher close, Treasury yields...
• Metal vol. Large swings in gold & silver prices. Positive US data supported the USD index. AUD held up thanks to some relative outperformance.• RBA today. On net, a RBA rate hike looks more likely than not. But there is the chance of a surprise. What the RBA says about the future also matters.
Global Trends
Various financial markets continue to whip around with volatility continuing at the...
A slow-motion flight to safety is underway across the currency markets this morning, as a bloodbath in the precious metals complex extends into a second week. Equity futures are pointing to further losses at the North American open, the US dollar is climbing against all of its major rivals as traders exit risky positions across a range of asset classes, and commodity-sensitive currencies like the Australian...
• Reversal. Positive data & Trump’s Fed Chair announcement boosted the USD. Commodities fell. AUD also lost ground (now ~2% below Thursday’s peak).• Macro risks. RBA expected to hike rates (Tues). But yield spreads & AUD already moved. US jobs data might rebound. This could be USD supportive.
Global Trends
There was a bit of a “reversal of fortune” across markets at the end...
The dollar is edging higher after US president Donald Trump said he will nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, a move that would place a long-time critic of expansive monetary intervention at the helm of the world’s most powerful central bank. Short-term Treasury yields are declining while long-term rates climb, equity futures are moving lower, and most major currencies are retreating against...
Good morning. Risk-sensitive currencies are advancing as shutdown fears recede and investors resume betting on a weaker dollar. According to the New York Times, US president Donald Trump and Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer are nearing a deal that would tighten limits on federal immigration agents and strip funding from the Department of Homeland Security, potentially clearing spending bills before...