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• US data. Solid US retail sales underpinned sentiment. Upshift in US interest rate expectations & weaker GBP boosted the USD. AUD slipped back.• Macro pulse. Markets toying with the idea the US Fed may hike interest rates. More US/Iran related volatility possible. China data batch due Monday.
Global Trends
A mixed performance across asset classes overnight, though there was a hint of US outperformance...
It has become a cliché to say that America and China operate on entirely different historical timescales—but sometimes clichés contain a grain of truth. As Donald Trump meets Xi Jinping this week, talk has turned to the possibility of a currency accord, akin to the Plaza Agreement of the 1980s, in which China agrees to let the renminbi appreciate. Anyone expecting an immediate breakthrough would do...
Good morning. Price action in currency markets is slowing to a crawl and the dollar is consolidating yesterday’s gains as traders keep their powder dry amid a lack of clear directional catalysts. Brent crude futures are holding near $106 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate is flirting with $102 after India said one of its vessels had come under attack off the coast of Oman and multiple sources reported...
Good morning. Oil prices are holding yesterday’s gains and the dollar is advancing on reports suggesting that the Trump administration is considering rebranding* its war with Iran as “Operation Sledgehammer” should Tehran reject US demands and the current ceasefire collapse. According to multiple sources, President Trump is weighing a resumption of major combat operations after declaring an end...
• Market wobbles. Faster US inflation dampened the mood. US equities dipped, bond yields rose. USD firmer. AUD drifted back but still at elevated levels.• AU Budget. A lot of the big ticket items already known. More spending restraint would have been helpful. RBA still has more work to do in its inflation fight.
Global Trends
A few renewed wobbles across markets overnight. There have been no fresh...
The factors driving Israel’s currency higher may owe less to Jerusalem than to Silicon Valley
The Israeli shekel’s surge to a 33-year high against the dollar—breaching the psychologically significant threshold of three to the greenback for the first time since 1993—is one of the stranger puzzles in global currency markets. Up roughly 24% since early last year and nearly 10% in 2026 alone,...