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Oil prices are tumbling and currency markets are snapping back toward pre-war levels after President Donald Trump said that Washington and Tehran had held “very good and productive conversations” over the preceding two days, and that he had ordered the Pentagon to postpone planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. The announcement, which came just...
• Market nerves. Concerns about the duration of the Middle East conflict & global economy remain. Equities fell on Friday, bond yields rose. AUD underperforms.• Risk radar. Situation in Middle East remains in the driver’s seat. More volatility likely. Macro headwinds for AUD & NZD still in place.
Global Trends
Developments in the Middle East and energy markets remain in the driver’s...
Global energy benchmarks are approaching last weekend’s panic-driven highs as the Middle East conflict shows signs of spiralling out of control. Brent is trading above $115, West Texas Intermediate is flirting with $100, and European natural gas futures are up another 25 percent after Iran struck infrastructure targets in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and carried out missile attacks on critical natural...
• Negative vibes. Another jump in energy prices & upward repricing in interest rates dampened risk sentiment. USD firmer. AUD & NZD underperform.• Macro news. Asia exposed to higher energy costs. Growth in Australia set to slow. US Fed looks to be in no hurry to cut again. AU jobs report out today.
Global Trends
The positive sentiment that ran through markets over recent days gave way overnight,...
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this afternoon and did little to acknowledge an Iran war-driven shift in the balance of risks facing the US economy in the accompanying statement, suggesting that officials could resist adopting a more hawkish posture in the near term. In the widely-expected decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted by an 11-to-1 margin to maintain the target...
As markets had overwhelmingly anticipated, the Bank of Canada left its policy settings on hold this morning, and expressed concern over persistent weakness in the Canadian economy, suggesting that policymakers are more concerned about downside risks to growth than upside risks to inflation as the world economy faces yet another supply shock.
Officials led by Governor Tiff Macklem maintained the policy...