Corpay Currency Research
Corpay Currency Research delivers daily market updates, macroeconomic analysis, and longer-term forecasts to help you make fast, confident, and informed decisions on foreign exchange risk — wherever your organisation is exposed.
Good morning. The dollar is holding firm as a new outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East sends oil prices to their highest since late July, raising the stakes ahead of Friday’s US inflation report—and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Brent crude, the global benchmark, is holding near $100 a barrel after the US and Iran each attacked oil tankers over the weekend, and Yemen’s...
• Market swings. US holiday overnight. US/Iran tensions supporting oil. JPY rebound weighing on USD & indirectly boosting currencies like the AUD.• Macro pulse. RBA’s Hunter & Hauser speak today. US CPI this week. Markets factoring in ~60% chance Fed hikes next week & RBA moves this month.
Global Trends
With the US enjoying a long weekend holiday most financial markets were relatively...
The US job creation engine accelerated dramatically last month, further bolstering the case for a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s meeting later this month. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 162,000 jobs were added in August—representing a massive overshoot relative to the 55,000-position consensus forecast—while the previous two months were revised down by a total -23,000 positions, bringing...
• Positive vibes. Equities rose & the USD slipped back as markets tempered near-term US Fed rate hike bets & USD/JPY fell. AUD at top of recent range.• Data pulse. Post Q2 AU GDP markets factoring in another RBA hike by November. High chance it happens this month. US jobs report out tonight.
Global Trends
Risk sentiment has been positive over the past couple of sessions with oil prices...
Good morning. The dollar is back on the defensive after the yen posted its biggest two-day gain since last month’s historic US-Japanese intervention. Brent crude is trading just below $95, after this week’s escalation in military hostilities between the US and Iran. Sovereign-bond yields are steadying below their recent highs, and equity futures are holding firm ahead of the North American...
The Bank of Canada left its policy settings unchanged this morning, while also adopting a somewhat surprisingly-optimistic view on the Canadian economy amid an intensifying trade conflict with the United States.
Officials led by Governor Tiff Macklem maintained the policy rate at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive meeting after delivering nine cuts between June 2024 and September 2025.
In the official...