Corpay Currency Research
Corpay Currency Research delivers daily market updates, macroeconomic analysis, and longer-term forecasts to help you make fast, confident, and informed decisions on foreign exchange risk — wherever your organisation is exposed.
Good morning. The dollar is edging off highs reached last week as traders digest Friday’s hawkish tilt in Fed communications, monitor developments in oil markets, and brace for a slew of event risks in the days ahead. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near their highest levels since early last year, equity markets are setting up for modest declines at the open, and most major currencies are...
Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote address to warn that inflation is running too hot for comfort, firming expectations that the central bank could raise rates this autumn, and driving the dollar higher.
In an address that subtly departed from market expectations for continued neutrality, Warsh said “I am impressed by the overall performance of the economy, which...
The Canadian economy expanded at the fastest rate since 2023 in the second quarter, but showed signs of decelerating slightly into the third, helping reinforce expectations for a neutral message from the Bank of Canada next week. Numbers released by Statistics Canada this morning showed real gross domestic product growing at a 3.3-percent annualised pace in the three months ended June, matching market...
Good morning. Most major currency pairs are little changed this morning as traders trim positions and avoid directional bets ahead of tomorrow’s long-awaited address from Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. Oil prices are edging lower as talks between Iran and Oman over the fate of the Strait of Hormuz show signs of progress, Treasury yields are holding steady,...
• US data. Firmer US activity & inflation data supported bond yields. USD a bit firmer against most currencies. AUD bucks the trend because of AU CPI.• AU pulse. July inflation higher than predicted. Odds of another RBA hike by year-end lift. Late-Sep meeting ‘live’. But has the AUD already factored it in?
Global Trends
A bit of a reversal in fortunes overnight across some markets...
Good morning. Currency markets are holding steady ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures index—an update that could shape expectations for interest rates ahead of Kevin Warsh’s closely-watched Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Oil prices are edging lower, helping to ease pressure on long-term yields, after Iran and Oman...