Corpay Currency Research
Corpay Currency Research delivers daily market updates, macroeconomic analysis, and longer-term forecasts to help you make fast, confident, and informed decisions on foreign exchange risk — wherever your organisation is exposed.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and delivered its clearest signal yet that upside risks to inflation now outweigh downside risks to employment in Kevin Warsh’s second meeting as chair—a hawkish bias underscored by three votes in favour of an immediate hike. After two days of discussion, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9–3 to maintain the target range for the federal...
Good morning, and happy Federal Reserve Day to all who observe. With geopolitical risks and an ongoing rout in artificial intelligence stocks combining to suppress risk appetite, currency markets are struggling to gain momentum ahead of this afternoon’s Federal Reserve rate decision. The euro, pound, and yen are virtually unchanged, and the trade-weighted dollar is flat.
Oil prices are holding...
Good morning. The dollar is easing off a one-month high ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting, caught between two countervailing forces: a fall in oil prices that is easing inflation fears, and a deepening selloff in global technology stocks that threatens the foundations of US exceptionalism. The euro, pound, yen, and Mexican peso are edging lower, while the Canadian dollar recovers its...
Oil prices are easing and markets are rebounding after the United States and Iran paused military hostilities over the weekend—reportedly in part because American munitions stocks are running low. Brent crude is trading at $88 a barrel—down almost 12% from Friday’s levels as traders try to avoid being wrong-footed by yet another diplomatic reversal—Treasury yields are slipping, and futures on...
• Market nerves. Middle East news pushes up oil & inflation worries boost bond yields. US equities decline. USD firmer. AUD & NZD weaker.• AU jobs. Employment stronger than predicted. But unemployment above RBA’s forecast. Q2 CPI due next week. AUD facing global headwinds.
Global Trends
Nervousness across financial markets has intensified with risk sentiment weakening further overnight....
Good morning. A palpable sense of caution is pervading global markets after Alphabet reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings but raised its capital expenditure forecast, reigniting concerns about the sustainability of the AI investment cycle. Google’s parent delivered its strongest-ever quarter of growth in cloud computing, but said it would spend as much as $205bn this year building...