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• Market swings. Modest improvement in sentiment overnight after risk aversion on Friday. Markets bring forward US rate hike pricing. AUD near 2-month low.• US data. Better than expected US jobs report on Friday. US CPI out this week. Markets may continue to adjust their US Fed thinking. More vol. expected.
Global Trends
A few turbulent sessions across markets the past few days with a rather acute...
Of all the rituals of finance most ripe for disruption by artificial intelligence, few are as deserving as the quadrennial spectacle of sell-side World Cup analysis. Like clockwork, the world’s biggest banks deploy teams of economists and quants to divine the tournament’s champion and tally the macroeconomic spoils. Thousands of pages and reams of data visualisations later*, they reach...
Good morning. The dollar is trading near a two-month high, lifted by three forces pulling in the same direction: a blockbuster payrolls report that has triggered a hawkish reappraisal of the Federal Reserve’s likely policy trajectory, a meltdown in technology stocks, and an intensifying conflict in the Middle East that is raising inflation risks further.
Treasury yields are holding at elevated...
US labour markets gained momentum in May, firming market expectations for a rate hike from the Federal Reserve by year end. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 172,000 jobs were added in the month—representing a solid overshoot relative to the 85,000-consensus forecast—while the previous two months were revised up by a total 93,000 positions, bringing the three-month average pace of job creation...
Markets are turning defensive ahead of the weekend as the war in the Middle East shows little sign of progress and investors grow more cautious on artificial-intelligence stocks. Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude look set to post their first weekly gains in three weeks after Hezbollah rejected a new ceasefire in Lebanon and Israel said it would maintain its troop presence in the country, undermining...
Good morning, and happy Groundhog Day*. The dollar is strengthening and Treasury yields are rising as diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz falter once again. Iran and the United States said last week they had reached a tentative deal to halt the war, but nothing has been signed and events on the ground moved in the opposite direction overnight: Iranian missiles damaged Kuwait’s airport...