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Foreign exchange markets are in upheaval after Iran war fears drove global crude prices nearly 30 percent higher over the weekend—but conditions could stabilise in coming hours if G7 countries tap their strategic petroleum reserves. According to the Financial Times, finance ministers from the major advanced economies are now discussing a co-ordinated release of oil reserves, with an announcement expected...
• Macro worries. Growth/inflation concerns due to the jump in oil were compounded by a weak US jobs report. AUD remains on the backfoot.• Oil risks. Production cuts across Middle East creating supply risks. Oil at multi-year high. USD has become positively correlated to oil the past few years.
Global Trends
It was a negative end to a rather torrid week for markets on Friday. Developments in the...
The US job creation engine decelerated sharply last month, partially reversing market bets on a more hawkish policy stance from the Federal Reserve this year. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 92,000 jobs were lost in February—representing a major downside surprise relative to the 55,000-consensus forecast—while the previous two months were revised down by a total 69,000...
• Oil jump. Another move higher in oil prices because of Middle East concerns dampened risk sentiment. Equities fell. USD firmer. AUD underperforms.• Macro worries. Higher energy prices pose an upside risk to inflation & downside risk to growth. More bouts of market & AUD volatility likely.
Global Trends
Market volatility related to developments in the Middle East and swings in the oil...
Good morning. Currency markets are still struggling to navigate conflicting signals from the Middle East. Iran’s deputy foreign minister reportedly told Sky News Arabia that Tehran might be willing to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile in “return for something good”, but an empty tanker was struck off the coast of Kuwait overnight, pointing to a widening campaign against Gulf shipping....
An uneasy sense of calm is settling on currency markets this morning as signs emerge that the conflict in the Middle East may be approaching a negotiated end. According to the New York Times, Iranian intelligence officials have made indirect contact with their US counterparts to “discuss terms for ending the conflict,” dovetailing with a shift in tone from president Trump, who said in a Sunday interview...