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On October 19th, Albertans will answer a question no province outside Quebec has ever formally put to its voters: whether to begin the legal process toward a binding referendum on leaving Canada. The wording is deliberately indirect—this is a vote about whether to hold a future vote—and it sits alongside nine other ballot questions on immigration and the constitution. But its symbolism is potent. Under...
Good morning. Oil prices are climbing and the dollar is trimming its losses against major peers as hopes for a near-term diplomatic resolution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz fade amid a fresh round of military escalation in the region. The US military struck targets in southern Iran and sank two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps vessels last night in what American officials described as defensive operations,...
• Market swings. Conflicting US/Iran reports generated volatility. US equities a bit higher. USD whipped around. Local/offshore factors push/pulled the AUD.• AU jobs. Weak jobs report in April. Employment fell. Unemployment at multi-year high. RBA rate hike expectations trimmed. Domestic headwinds growing.
Global Trends
The ‘will they, won’t they’ situation regarding a US/Iran peace...
Good morning. In subdued trading, oil prices are extending their decline, equities are advancing, Treasury yields are easing from recent highs, and currency markets remain dormant after President Trump said talks with Iran are in the “final stages”—leaving many investors awaiting something more conclusive. Trump warned that Washington could resume strikes within days if peace talks fail to advance,...
This afternoon’s first-quarter results from Nvidia are unlikely to cool the artificial intelligence frenzy. In nominal terms, net income almost certainly grew to a level no public company has ever surpassed. But the chipmaker’s dazzling numbers—and the reaction felt across asset classes—will also illuminate a risk that ought to concern investors and businesses far beyond Silicon Valley:...
A bruising multi-day selloff in government bonds is showing signs of exhaustion this morning as investors train attention on Nvidia’s first-quarter results after the closing bell—an event that has become one of the most reliable positive catalysts for risk appetite in global markets. US equity futures are pointing to a tentative recovery after three days of losses, and the dollar is surrendering...