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Underlying consumer price growth turned negative in the United States last month, smashing the case for an imminent rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and adding to the downward pressure building against the dollar. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—fell -0.02% in month-over-month...
Good morning. Oil prices are up nearly 15% from Friday’s close and the dollar is retreating after an escalation between Washington and Tehran led to a collapse in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, again threatening global energy supplies. After a series of Iranian attacks on shipping and military skirmishes, President Trump yesterday reinstated a naval blockade on Iran, declaring the United...
• Risk wobbles. Renewed US/Iran tensions dampen risk sentiment. Oil prices jump, US equities dip, & USD firmer. AUD slips back.• US data flow. Fed’s Waller ‘hawkish’. Markets pricing in a Q3 Fed rate hike. US CPI out tonight. New US Fed Chair Warsh also speaks. USD vol. likely.
Global Trends
A few renewed geopolitical and macro related wobbles across markets at the start of...
Good morning. Oil prices are in the ascendant once again after another military escalation between the United States and Iran reignited fears of a prolonged disruption in energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate are up roughly 2.5% after Revolutionary Guard units declared the strait closed to commercial shipping and fired on several vessels over the weekend,...
The Canadian economy again generated more jobs than anticipated last month, further lowering the likelihood of an economic downturn and allowing policymakers at the Bank of Canada to remain squarely focused on inflation risks. According to an update just published by Statistics Canada, 18,200 new positions were added in June, slowing from 87,800 in the prior month while overshooting the 10,000-job...
A few years ago three behavioural-finance researchers put a deceptively simple question* to more than 26,000 people—academic economists, ordinary households, retail investors, financial advisers and professional fund managers alike. Suppose a piece of good news about a company’s future earnings is already four weeks old. Should you expect its shares to earn higher returns from here?
Most academics...