Corpay Currency Research
Corpay Currency Research delivers daily market updates, macroeconomic analysis, and longer-term forecasts to help you make fast, confident, and informed decisions on foreign exchange risk — wherever your organisation is exposed.
Underlying consumer prices climbed at a restrained pace in the United States last month, modestly weakening the case for a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, and putting slight downward pressure on the dollar. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 0.2% in...
For the second straight meeting the RBA kept the cash rate steady at 4.35% today. This follows the rapid fire recalibration in interest rates that was pushed through earlier in the year. No change was widely anticipated with traders assigning a less than 5% chance of a move today and no surveyed analyst forecasting it. The decision to stand still was a unanimous Board vote.
According to the RBA,...
• Consolidation. Limited news flow constrained market moves. Oil ticked up, US equities dipped a bit. AUD tracked sideways after RBA held steady.• Macro pulse. No change by RBA, but kept door open for more, if required. US CPI tonight. US inflation may trigger some vol. as rate expectations adjust.
Global Trends
There was little fresh geopolitical or economic news released overnight, hence market...
• Holding on. Oil prices rise with no further US/Iran progress concerning markets. Bond yields tick up. AUD & NZD drifted back a little.• RBA meeting. No change in interest rates expected. But the RBA may keep the door open to more tightening. US CPI & retail sales out later this week.
Global Trends
Outside of oil prices, which rose by nearly ~5% (the 4th straight daily rise) on the back...
The US job creation engine went into reverse last month, sharply lowering expectations for a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. According to an update just published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 23,000 jobs were lost in July—representing a massive undershoot relative to the 80,000-consensus forecast—while the previous two months were revised down by a total 103,000 positions,...
Happy Friday. With uncertainty running high ahead of this morning’s jobs report and fresh questions emerging about the course of the conflict in the Middle East, activity across financial markets is subdued. Equity futures are pointing to small gains at the open, Treasury yields are stable, and most major foreign exchange pairs are essentially unchanged from yesterday’s close. The Japanese...