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The dollar is advancing against its major rivals, buoyed by Friday’s stronger-than-expected payrolls report and yet another collapse in US-Iran peace talks*. Days after the Trump administration triggered a relief rally in financial markets by dangling a peace offer, Tehran yesterday released a response that reportedly demanded an end to the US naval blockade, a lifting of sanctions, a cessation...
• Push-pull forces. Positive US jobs offset by US rejecting Iran’s latest offer. US equity futures dipped & oil higher this morning. AUD at elevated levels.• Macro news. Australian budget in focus (Tues night). In the US, CPI inflation is due (Tues night). US producer prices & retail sales out later in the week.
Global Trends
Risk sentiment ended last week on positive footing as hopes...
US job creation held up and the unemployment rate held steady last month, further reinforcing market expectations for a prolonged period on the sidelines from the Federal Reserve. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 115,000 roles were added in April—representing an overshoot relative to the 65,000-job consensus forecast—while the jobless rate stayed at 4.3%. The two previous months were revised...
Good morning, and happy Friday. The dollar is heading for a second week of losses and oil prices are drifting lower after yesterday’s exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz failed to shift Donald Trump’s rhetorical stance, reinforcing investor confidence in the US eventually finding an off-ramp in the conflict. The president said the ceasefire agreed in early April remained in effect,...
Mexico’s currency has had an improbably good run. The peso appreciated 15% against the dollar last year, and has continued its run thus far in 2026, printing another 4.5% gain. Yet beneath the superpeso’s gleaming surface, the economy it represents looks decidedly less impressive.
Growth has been feeble. GDP expanded just 0.6% in 2025, and the economy contracted outright in the first...
Good morning. Yesterday’s rally in global financial markets is running out of momentum as investors await evidence of tangible progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Iran is reportedly reviewing a one-page, 14-point US proposal under which sanctions would be lifted and the Strait of Hormuz opened to shipping in exchange for a suspension of nuclear enrichment activities*. Oil prices...