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Good morning. Risk appetite is deteriorating across the financial system as the Middle East conflict shows little sign of easing ahead of President Trump’s deadline for resuming military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure tomorrow. Although there are clear signs of political exhaustion in Washington, Iran yesterday rejected the administration’s maximalist overtures,...
A wave of cautious optimism is washing over financial markets after the United States reportedly offered Iran a 15-point peace plan, reinforcing the belief that Washington is looking for an exit from the conflict. Details of the proposal are unclear, but investors are turning more hopeful* even as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, attacks continue on both sides, and more American troops...
Energy prices are ratcheting higher once again as fighting in the Middle East rages unabated, suggesting that President Donald Trump’s efforts to find a diplomatic off-ramp have not met with success thus far. Brent crude is trading above $100 a barrel, West Texas Intermediate is clinging to the $90 threshold, and European gas benchmarks are climbing, reversing yesterday’s retreat* which came...
• Risk reversal. Comments by Pres. Trump saw oil prices fall & sentiment improve. USD weaker. AUD ticked up, but AUD also underperforms on crosses.• Fragile markets. Situation in Middle East remains fluid. More volatility likely. Impact on global economy from the energy supply shock still in the pipeline.
Global Trends
Markets continue to be whipped around by developments in the Middle East,...
Oil prices are tumbling and currency markets are snapping back toward pre-war levels after President Donald Trump said that Washington and Tehran had held “very good and productive conversations” over the preceding two days, and that he had ordered the Pentagon to postpone planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. The announcement, which came just...
• Market nerves. Concerns about the duration of the Middle East conflict & global economy remain. Equities fell on Friday, bond yields rose. AUD underperforms.• Risk radar. Situation in Middle East remains in the driver’s seat. More volatility likely. Macro headwinds for AUD & NZD still in place.
Global Trends
Developments in the Middle East and energy markets remain in the driver’s...