Corpay Currency Research
Corpay Currency Research delivers daily market updates, macroeconomic analysis, and longer-term forecasts to help you make fast, confident, and informed decisions on foreign exchange risk — wherever your organisation is exposed.
The US job creation engine went into reverse last month, sharply lowering expectations for a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. According to an update just published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 23,000 jobs were lost in July—representing a massive undershoot relative to the 80,000-consensus forecast—while the previous two months were revised down by a total 103,000 positions,...
Happy Friday. With uncertainty running high ahead of this morning’s jobs report and fresh questions emerging about the course of the conflict in the Middle East, activity across financial markets is subdued. Equity futures are pointing to small gains at the open, Treasury yields are stable, and most major foreign exchange pairs are essentially unchanged from yesterday’s close. The Japanese...
• Market wobbles. Fading optimism about the latest US/Iran deal pushed up oil prices. US bond yields higher. USD firmer. AUD & NZD slipped back.• Data pulse. US jobs report in focus tonight. Data could generate a binary market reaction. RBA next week. No policy change anticipated.
Global Trends
A few renewed, albeit modest, wobbles across markets with Middle East related news a factor. Optimism...
Good morning. Markets are shifting onto a broadly positive footing after Iran said that it had reached a deal with Oman to permit shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Under the temporary arrangement reported yesterday, tankers would pass without charge for sixty days—though Iran is said to want an eventual toll of 5-7% of cargo value, against the 3% Oman favours. The Trump administration appears...
Good morning. Market sentiment has turned markedly more optimistic on reports suggesting that Iran and Oman are nearing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Under the arrangement being discussed, ships bound for the Persian Gulf would enter through Iranian territorial waters, while those leaving would exit through Omani ones. No “service fees”* would be levied during an initial 60-day provisional...
• Upbeat vibes. Positive US/Iran rhetoric. Oil prices lower, US equities higher. USD on backfoot. Cyclical currencies like AUD & NZD outperform.• Data pulse. US ADP employment & services ISM due tonight. US jobs report out later this week. Potential for renewed bursts of market volatility.
Global Trends
The more upbeat risk sentiment that came through at the end of July have continued over...