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Oil prices have tumbled and the dollar is trading near a two-week low after Washington and Tehran announced they had reached a tentative agreement to pause the war in the Middle East and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who brokered the final round of talks, revealed the deal, President Trump announced it on social media, and semi-official Iranian media outlets...
Good morning. Oil prices are falling and risk assets are climbing after signals from both Washington and Tehran suggested the two sides are closing in on an agreement to pause hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to energy shipments. After President Trump yesterday announced he had cancelled scheduled strikes on Iran, saying the final points of a deal had been approved by all parties, Iran’s...
• US/Iran. Latest reversal by President Trump boosted risk sentiment. US equities rose, oil & bond yields fell. USD weaker. AUD rebounds after a torrid run.• Macro pulse. Energy/supply-chain disruption impacts only just starting to show. ECB raised rates overnight. RBA, BoJ, BoE, & US Fed in focus next week.
Global Trends
Middle East related headlines have been in the driver’s seat overnight...
Good morning. The dollar is trading on a stronger footing ahead of a producer price report that could lend further support. Firmness in the components that feed into the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure—airfares, healthcare, financial services and insurance—might lift expectations for the core personal consumption expenditures deflator, due later this month, toward the 3.3% mark, reinforcing...
• Geopolitical jitters. US/Iran tensions dampen sentiment. Equities lower, oil firmer. Cyclical currencies like AUD & NZD weaken. AUD at ~2-month low.• Data pulse. US CPI confirmed an oil-driven acceleration in headline inflation. ECB expected to hike rates tonight. US producer prices also released.
Global Trends
Risk sentiment has remained on the backfoot with renewed hostilities in the Middle...
Surprising no one, the Bank of Canada left its policy settings on hold this morning, while warning that it faces a ‘dilemma’ in responding to the risks bearing down on the economy. Higher energy prices could feed a rise in generalised price pressures, but trade uncertainty remains a major headwind and the economy is expected to maintain considerable slack—limiting upside inflation risks...