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US job creation held up and the unemployment rate held steady last month, further reinforcing market expectations for a prolonged period on the sidelines from the Federal Reserve. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 115,000 roles were added in April—representing an overshoot relative to the 65,000-job consensus forecast—while the jobless rate stayed at 4.3%. The two previous months were revised...
Good morning, and happy Friday. The dollar is heading for a second week of losses and oil prices are drifting lower after yesterday’s exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz failed to shift Donald Trump’s rhetorical stance, reinforcing investor confidence in the US eventually finding an off-ramp in the conflict. The president said the ceasefire agreed in early April remained in effect,...
Mexico’s currency has had an improbably good run. The peso appreciated 15% against the dollar last year, and has continued its run thus far in 2026, printing another 4.5% gain. Yet beneath the superpeso’s gleaming surface, the economy it represents looks decidedly less impressive.
Growth has been feeble. GDP expanded just 0.6% in 2025, and the economy contracted outright in the first...
Good morning. Yesterday’s rally in global financial markets is running out of momentum as investors await evidence of tangible progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Iran is reportedly reviewing a one-page, 14-point US proposal under which sanctions would be lifted and the Strait of Hormuz opened to shipping in exchange for a suspension of nuclear enrichment activities*. Oil prices...
• Positive vibes. Markets optimistic about an end to the US/Iran conflict. Oil lower, USD softer. NZD outperforms. AUD touched a fresh multi-year high.• Twists & turns. Spillovers from the conflict set to be with us for a while. RBA rate hikes will weigh on growth. US jobs report could generate FX vol.
Global Trends
Markets have remained in a positive state of mind with hopes of an end to the...
American trade imbalances aren’t going away, just moving geographically
By the time Donald Trump entered the White House in 2017, faith in free trade among America’s elite had already collapsed. Antipathy to globalisation was the closest thing Washington had to consensus, and the $552-billion deficit the United States ran that year was seen as evidence of national surrender. In the years since,...