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Mexico’s currency has had an improbably good run. The peso appreciated 15% against the dollar last year, and has continued its run thus far in 2026, printing another 4.5% gain. Yet beneath the superpeso’s gleaming surface, the economy it represents looks decidedly less impressive.
Growth has been feeble. GDP expanded just 0.6% in 2025, and the economy contracted outright in the first...
Good morning. Yesterday’s rally in global financial markets is running out of momentum as investors await evidence of tangible progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Iran is reportedly reviewing a one-page, 14-point US proposal under which sanctions would be lifted and the Strait of Hormuz opened to shipping in exchange for a suspension of nuclear enrichment activities*. Oil prices...
• Positive vibes. Markets optimistic about an end to the US/Iran conflict. Oil lower, USD softer. NZD outperforms. AUD touched a fresh multi-year high.• Twists & turns. Spillovers from the conflict set to be with us for a while. RBA rate hikes will weigh on growth. US jobs report could generate FX vol.
Global Trends
Markets have remained in a positive state of mind with hopes of an end to the...
American trade imbalances aren’t going away, just moving geographically
By the time Donald Trump entered the White House in 2017, faith in free trade among America’s elite had already collapsed. Antipathy to globalisation was the closest thing Washington had to consensus, and the $552-billion deficit the United States ran that year was seen as evidence of national surrender. In the years since,...
The dollar is trading near its lowest levels in months, bond yields are plunging, and equity indices advancing after Axios reported that Washington and Tehran are nearing an agreement to end the war in the Middle East. Both global crude benchmarks are down more than 9%, with Brent trading below $100 and West Texas Intermediate nearing $90, and most major currencies are climbing against the greenback...
The RBA continues to take few chances when it comes to the problematic domestic inflation trends with another interest rate hike announced today. This is the third consecutive meeting the RBA has tapped on the brakes with the latest 25bp increase moving the cash rate up to 4.35%. Policy settings have been recalibrated quickly. The interest rate ‘relief’ delivered last year has been unwound with the...