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Corpay Currency Research delivers daily market updates, macroeconomic analysis, and longer-term forecasts to help you make fast, confident, and informed decisions on foreign exchange risk — wherever your organisation is exposed.
Good morning. A palpable sense of caution is pervading global markets after Alphabet reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings but raised its capital expenditure forecast, reigniting concerns about the sustainability of the AI investment cycle. Google’s parent delivered its strongest-ever quarter of growth in cloud computing, but said it would spend as much as $205bn this year building...
• Risk wobbles. US/Iran tensions push oil higher. US yields rose, equities slip back, USD consolidated. AUD hovering just below ~US$0.70.• AU jobs. Monthly jobs data due today. Labour demand indicators have softened. Underwhelming report could raise doubts RBA may hike again.
Global Trends
A few renewed bouts of market volatility over recent days, albeit relatively modest compared to what has occurred...
Happy hump day. Investors are turning more cautious ahead of this afternoon’s Alphabet earnings release, with the technology group’s results expected to offer some clarity on whether the vast sums poured into artificial intelligence infrastructure are generating returns. Futures on the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are pointing slightly lower after a two-day recovery and the stakes for currency...
Good morning. The dollar is holding firm, Treasury yields are steadying, and oil prices are inching higher as investors try to look through a raft of worrisome headlines. Foreign-exchange markets have become less sensitive to the daily rhythm of geopolitical escalation, focusing instead on monetary policy after lower-than-expected inflation data last week prompted traders to scale back expectations...
Update: The White House posted annexes setting out product-specific tariff rates after my earlier market wire was sent. Using the information in the annexes applied to pre-Trump trade volumes, our rough estimates suggest the overall increase in potential levies comes in at around $19.1 billion USD or 4.6% of Canadian exports to the US, meaning that the average tariff rate applied to Canadian products...
Good morning. The dollar is steadying and measures of implied volatility are coming down after a week of turmoil that saw global equity markets tumble and oil prices surge past $90 a barrel for the first time in more than a month. After American forces launched a ninth consecutive night of strikes and Tehran carried out reprisals against ships and targets across the region, Iranian authorities said...