Corpay Currency Research
Corpay Currency Research delivers daily market updates, macroeconomic analysis, and longer-term forecasts to help you make fast, confident, and informed decisions on foreign exchange risk — wherever your organisation is exposed.
Good morning. Risk sentiment is improving across the financial markets and the dollar is holding near a seven-week high after the Federal Reserve fired the starting gun on a new monetary tightening cycle and oil prices pulled back, easing tensions in bond markets.
In yesterday’s unanimous decision, the Fed’s rate-setting committee raised borrowing costs by a quarter of a percentage point,...
• Fed hike. A ‘hawkish’ US Fed rate rise. Forecasts point to more ‘tightening’ later this year. US equities dip. USD firmer. AUD & NZD remain on the backfoot.• Macro pulse. US retail sales stronger than expected. US Fed has more work to do. BoE tonight & BoJ tomorrow. RBA predicted to hike rates later this month.
Global Trends
Economic events in the US were in focus...
As had been widely expected, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates and telegraphed at least one additional move this year as policymakers grapple with rising inflation risks — putting the central bank on a hawkish footing that should help stabilise the dollar. After two days of discussion, the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to raise the target range for the federal funds rate between...
Good morning, and happy Federal Reserve Day to all who observe. The dollar is holding firm, with investors and economists overwhelmingly convinced the Fed will raise rates for the first time in more than three years, amid a surge in global energy prices and a jump in long-term yields. Oil remains above $100 a barrel after Saudi Arabia, after coming under sustained attack from Iran and its allies, suspended...
• Risk wobbles. Higher oil prices & rising bond yields dampen sentiment. USD firmer. AUD & NZD drift back. AUD ~1.5% from last weeks peak.• US rates. US Fed in focus with a hike expected tomorrow (4am AEST). But Fed may struggle to be more ‘hawkish’ than what is priced. USD volatility likely.
Global Trends
Cyclical assets remain on the backfoot with the combination of higher...
Good morning. The selloff in global bond markets is intensifying this morning, pushing yields to their highest levels in decades and weighing on risk appetite across the financial system. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the 5% mark, equity futures are pointing to losses at the open, and the dollar is advancing incrementally against all of its G10 counterparts.
After a brief reversal yesterday,...