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Good morning. Markets are struggling to find direction as conflicting signals on the war in Iran leave traders rudderless. Vice President JD Vance yesterday postponed a trip to Pakistan after Iranian officials reportedly refused to meet with him, citing “unreasonable demands” from the US, while President Trump extended today’s ceasefire deadline to allow Tehran to present a “unified...
• Market wobbles. Fears of a re-escalation in Iran dampened sentiment overnight. President Trump extended the ceasefire this morning.• FX moves. USD firmer due to higher oil & strong US retail sales. NZD holds up because of NZ CPI. AUD lost some ground. More bursts of vol. expected.
Global Trends
A few more Middle East related gyrations across markets overnight. Risk sentiment was on the backfoot...
American households seemingly remained undaunted by the war in Iran last month, spending more than expected even as measures of consumer sentiment plunged to historic lows. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, so-called “control group” retail sales—with gasoline, cars, food services, and building materials excluded—rose 0.7% in March, beating forecasts set at 0.2% and climbing...
Good morning. The dollar is inching higher and risk appetite is faltering after Tehran attacked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz while the US maintained its blockade of Iranian ports and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel, casting doubt on market expectations for an imminent peace deal. Global oil prices are back up, bond yields are pushing higher, equities are setting up to snap a five-day winning...
• Ongoing uncertainty. Weekend news the Strait of Hormuz has been closed dampened sentiment. USD a bit firmer. AUD gives back some ground.• Volatile situation. More twists & turns likely. Impact on global economy still in its infancy. Q1 NZ CPI due (Tues). Global PMIs also out this week (Thurs).
Global TrendsMiddle East related events have remained in the driver’s seat with the unfolding situation...
Good morning. Financial markets are in an ebullient mood as investors bet the US and Iran will reach a peace deal in the coming weeks, allowing the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and relieving the supply shock battering global commodity flows. Although Washington and Tehran are still blockading global shipping and energy shortages are worsening by the day, mediators from Pakistan and the Gulf countries...