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• Ongoing uncertainty. Weekend news the Strait of Hormuz has been closed dampened sentiment. USD a bit firmer. AUD gives back some ground.• Volatile situation. More twists & turns likely. Impact on global economy still in its infancy. Q1 NZ CPI due (Tues). Global PMIs also out this week (Thurs).
Global TrendsMiddle East related events have remained in the driver’s seat with the unfolding situation...
Good morning. Financial markets are in an ebullient mood as investors bet the US and Iran will reach a peace deal in the coming weeks, allowing the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and relieving the supply shock battering global commodity flows. Although Washington and Tehran are still blockading global shipping and energy shortages are worsening by the day, mediators from Pakistan and the Gulf countries...
• Positive vibes. Markets hopeful another round of US/Iran talks yield positive results. Oil lower, equities higher. USD weaker. AUD at multi-week high.• Macro pulse. IMF downgraded global outlook. Australian business & consumer confidence tumbled. Conflict casting a long shadow over world economy.
Global Trends
Short-term sentiment driven markets have been in ‘glass half full’ mode overnight....
Good morning. Financial markets are rallying on hopes for a renewal of diplomatic engagement in the Middle East, with some media outlets reporting that US and Iranian negotiating teams could return to Islamabad for talks later this week. Oil prices are retreating, Treasury yields are coming under renewed pressure, equity markets are setting up for a positive open, and most major foreign exchange pairs...
Hopes for a swift resolution to the war in the Middle East were shattered over the weekend when US-Iran peace talks collapsed and President Trump announced plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran reportedly baulked at several American red-line demands during Saturday’s negotiations, refusing to dismantle uranium-enrichment facilities, halt funding for regional proxies, or guarantee free...
• US/Iran conflict. Weekend talks ended without an agreement. Energy prices jumped this morning. USD firmer. AUD & NZD lose ground.• Macro risks. US threatens to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Downside risks to global economy remain. Volatility expected to continue for a while yet.
Global Trends
Market sentiment was underpinned last week by the US/Iran ceasefire news. There was a solid rebound...