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Good morning. The dollar is edging lower and trading ranges are narrowing across currency markets ahead of the personal consumption expenditures report—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—at 8:30. Evidence of resilient underlying price pressures might reignite the dollar’s rally—or a softer reading could open a wider reappraisal of the higher-for-longer policy expectations that...
• Shaky ground. A bout of risk aversion has washed through markets the past few days. US equities lose ground. USD firmer. AUD down near ~$0.6900.• Macro pulse. US PCE deflator out tonight. Australian jobs report due today. We think the cross-currents point to more downside risks for the AUD.
Global Trends
Markets have been on edge for the past few days with a bout of risk aversion washing through....
Good morning. The trade-weighted dollar is holding near a sixteen-month high, Treasury yields are slipping, and US equity futures are rebounding after a steep technology-led selloff earlier in the week.
Oil prices are slipping as markets brace for the release of millions of barrels in pent-up supply. Physical flows through the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to resume as tankers get underway and a...
Good morning. The dollar is advancing against all of its major peers, driven by a Federal Reserve that has turned far more hawkish, and a deterioration in risk appetite as technology stocks retreat.
Last week’s abrupt pivot from the Federal Reserve is still rippling across markets, and confounding the early-2026 consensus for a weaker dollar. After a series of stronger-than-expected data releases...
There was little evidence of higher energy costs broadening to raise prices for other goods and services in Canada last month, with underlying inflation pressures holding steady, further lowering the likelihood of a rate hike from the Bank of Canada by year end. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed core inflation—which strips out food and energy prices—and is computed as the average...
Good morning. The dollar is holding near a one-year high and Treasury yields are climbing even as oil prices fall another 2%, with investors returning from the holiday weekend to find that hawkish signals from last week’s Federal Reserve meeting are overwhelming the terms-of-trade effects that had dominated currency markets since the war began. With rate differentials having tilted sharply in...