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Good morning. The dollar is flat, Treasury yields are edging lower across the curve, and oil prices continue to decline as traders await details of the US-Iran peace deal ahead of its signing on Friday and brace for turbulence around tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision. Brent crude is changing hands at $81 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $78, with both benchmarks down nearly 11% this...
After delivering three consecutive interest rate hikes to start the year, as expected, the RBA kept the cash rate steady at 4.35% today. The decision was “unanimous” as the RBA Board steps into a “hold-and-assess phase” after recalibrating the level of interest rates to a more “restrictive” setting over Q1/Q2 2026.
According to the RBA, inflation is still “too high”, yet at the same time financial...
• US/Iran news. Oil fell & equities rose on the back of US/Iran news. FX more muted reflecting the uncertainty & macro challenges that remain.• Event radar. China data due today. BoJ expected to hike rates & RBA predicted to hold. US Fed later this week, the first meeting for new Chair Warsh.
Global Trends
It has been a relatively upbeat start to the week with markets reacting somewhat...
Oil prices have tumbled and the dollar is trading near a two-week low after Washington and Tehran announced they had reached a tentative agreement to pause the war in the Middle East and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who brokered the final round of talks, revealed the deal, President Trump announced it on social media, and semi-official Iranian media outlets...
Good morning. Oil prices are falling and risk assets are climbing after signals from both Washington and Tehran suggested the two sides are closing in on an agreement to pause hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to energy shipments. After President Trump yesterday announced he had cancelled scheduled strikes on Iran, saying the final points of a deal had been approved by all parties, Iran’s...
• US/Iran. Latest reversal by President Trump boosted risk sentiment. US equities rose, oil & bond yields fell. USD weaker. AUD rebounds after a torrid run.• Macro pulse. Energy/supply-chain disruption impacts only just starting to show. ECB raised rates overnight. RBA, BoJ, BoE, & US Fed in focus next week.
Global Trends
Middle East related headlines have been in the driver’s seat overnight...