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Treasury yields and the dollar are retreating from yesterday’s highs after Hezbollah and Israel agreed to temporarily halt cross-border fighting, giving Iranian officials cause to return to the bargaining table. Oil prices had posted their sharpest one-day surge in a month after Tehran said it was abandoning talks amid an intensifying Israeli assault on Lebanon, reviving supply fears that had...
• Headline noise. Conflicting Middle East news generated a few bursts of volatility. US bond yields & USD ticked up. NZD & AUD lost a bit of ground.• Macro events. Eurozone CPI tonight. US non-farm payrolls due later this week. Australian Q1 GDP out on Wednesday. RBA Gov. Bullock also speaks (Thurs).
Global Trends
Middle East-related headlines knocked markets around a little overnight....
The US Treasury market has long served as the world’s financial anchor—deep, liquid and reliably stable. That reputation for placidity is becoming harder to sustain*. America is borrowing at a pace that would have seemed extraordinary a generation ago, and the buyers who once absorbed that paper without blinking are quietly stepping away.
The scale of the fiscal expansion is astonishing. Publicly...
Good morning. Equities look set to extend May’s advance at this morning’s open, even as the dollar and Treasury yields climb amid another round of escalatory strikes in the Middle East. Overnight, America hit radar and missile sites in Iran, and Tehran responded with attacks on Kuwait. President Trump said he was “in no hurry” to agree to a deal that might reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning...
Happy Friday. Oil prices and the dollar are paring their losses this morning after dropping sharply yesterday on reports of a tentative agreement between the US and Iran. According to multiple sources, the two sides have agreed to extend their ceasefire by 60 days, schedule a fresh round of negotiations on Iranian nuclear materials, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a month. But Tehran has not...
Good morning. Oil prices and Treasury yields are easing as markets grow more confident that a deal between America and Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, despite a series of military actions in recent days. The Strait, through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes, has been closed for almost three months. Brent crude is trading for nearly $96 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at...