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Good morning. The dollar is holding firm even after Thursday’s disappointing non-farm payrolls report triggered a pullback in Federal Reserve tightening expectations. American employers added just 57,000 workers in June, far short of the 115,000 forecast, and revisions lopped a combined 74,000 from the previous two months. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but not because of a pickup in hiring—labour-force...
• US jobs. Non-farm payrolls weaker than expected. Some noise in the monthly report. US Fed rate hike pricing pushed back. USD softer. AUD a bit firmer.• JPY focus. Reports out of Japan indicate officials may move to a less predictable FX intervention strategy. Will they step in during the US holiday?
Global Trends
Ahead of the US’ Independence Day long weekend markets were focused on the latest...
The US job creation engine slowed in June, weighing on expectations for a renewed tightening cycle from the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, just 57,000 jobs were added in the month—representing an undershoot relative to the 110,000 median consensus forecast—while the previous two months were revised down by a total 74,000 positions, lowering...
• Risk wobbles. US/European equities slipped back overnight. USD firmer. NZD treading water while AUD underperforms. AUD still tracking sub ~$0.69.• Data trends. On net, more solid US data released the past few days. Monthly US jobs report released tonight. Fed rate hike pricing could shift again.
Global Trends
After a positive end to Q2 there were a few modest wobbles across markets overnight....
Good morning. In the absence of any major volatility catalysts, the dollar is adding to its gains and Treasury yields are holding firm, with equity futures pointing to a flat open. Oil prices have fallen back to levels last seen before the US-Israeli-Iranian conflict began at the end of February, and the skirmishes that continue to flare are drawing diminishing reactions from markets—a sign that traders...
• Risk rebound. US equities rose overnight after last week’s falls. USD/JPY touched highest point since 1986. AUD treading water just under ~$0.69.• Data pulse. RBA minutes & China PMIs due today. Later this week US Fed Chair Warsh speaks, the ISM is due, & non-farm payrolls are released.
Global Trends
After the recent bout of risk aversion which saw US equities decline and the USD...