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Good morning. Oil prices are nearing pre-war levels as supertankers begin moving through the Strait of Hormuz, and the dollar is trading near a one-year high after the Federal Reserve delivered a “hawkish hold” in Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair.
Both of the major global crude benchmarks are trading just above levels reached in the immediate aftermath of US and Israeli strikes on Iran...
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, stripped forward guidance from its communications, and signalled a dramatic hawkish shift in its reaction function at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair—confounding expectations for a smooth transition from the Powell era.
In significant revisions to the statement, officials removed anything resembling a forward policy outlook, including...
Good morning, and happy Federal Reserve day to all who celebrate. Markets are on tenterhooks ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Federal Reserve chair, with Treasury yields firming, the dollar advancing, and most major currency pairs trapped in tight ranges. After a copy of the US-Iran ‘memorandum of understanding’ was released by major news outlets, both global oil benchmarks are edging...
Good morning. The dollar is flat, Treasury yields are edging lower across the curve, and oil prices continue to decline as traders await details of the US-Iran peace deal ahead of its signing on Friday and brace for turbulence around tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision. Brent crude is changing hands at $81 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $78, with both benchmarks down nearly 11% this...
After delivering three consecutive interest rate hikes to start the year, as expected, the RBA kept the cash rate steady at 4.35% today. The decision was “unanimous” as the RBA Board steps into a “hold-and-assess phase” after recalibrating the level of interest rates to a more “restrictive” setting over Q1/Q2 2026.
According to the RBA, inflation is still “too high”, yet at the same time financial...
• US/Iran news. Oil fell & equities rose on the back of US/Iran news. FX more muted reflecting the uncertainty & macro challenges that remain.• Event radar. China data due today. BoJ expected to hike rates & RBA predicted to hold. US Fed later this week, the first meeting for new Chair Warsh.
Global Trends
It has been a relatively upbeat start to the week with markets reacting somewhat...