Corpay Currency Research
Corpay Currency Research delivers daily market updates, macroeconomic analysis, and longer-term forecasts to help you make fast, confident, and informed decisions on foreign exchange risk — wherever your organisation is exposed.
As had been widely expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this afternoon, as policymakers await more data on the direction of the economy and inflation before tightening further.
In a brief statement setting out the decision, officials acknowledged persistently-high uncertainty, but pointed to a “strong pace” of economic activity, “resilient” domestic spending, “robust”...
The Bank of Canada launched a pre-emptive strike on inflation this morning, raising borrowing costs by a quarter percentage point in an effort to prevent price pressures from spreading across the economy as the global energy shock rumbles on.
A rise in inflation risks played a decisive role. In the official statement setting out the decision to raise the benchmark rate to 2.5%, policymakers said...
The pound is inching higher against the dollar and gilt yields are holding firm across the curve after Chancellor John Healey maintained fiscal discipline in his first autumn Budget, matching investor expectations. His “do no harm” plan will cut a range of energy levies and offer financial support to lower-income households over the coming winter, while also suspending tariffs on a number of food items...
• Upbeat tone. Tech stocks recovered more ground. Bond yields tread water. NZD consolidated while AUD ticked up & outperformed on the crosses.• Data flow. AU Q3 CPI due today & RBNZ expected to hike. US Fed meets tomorrow morning. UK Budget tonight. Bursts of FX volatility possible.
Global Trends
Risk sentiment remained positive overnight. Tech stocks extended their recovery ahead of key...
• Positive vibes. Risk sentiment improved overnight. But earnings reports from tech stocks may generate vol. this week. AUD & NZD drifted a bit lower.• Macro pulse. Australian Q3 CPI due (Weds). RBNZ expected to hike (Weds). US Fed, BoJ, & ECB also meeting this week. Q3 US GDP also on the radar.
Global Trends
A few push-pull forces washed through markets at the start of the new week, but...
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has pulled off a stunning upset in the second round of Brazil’s election, securing a fourth term as president, and wrongfooting currency traders who had bet on a change of economic direction in Latin America’s largest economy. Early results suggest that the 80-year-old leftist president has captured 50.6% of the vote, narrowly beating Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president...