Corpay Currency Research
Corpay Currency Research delivers daily market updates, macroeconomic analysis, and longer-term forecasts to help you make fast, confident, and informed decisions on foreign exchange risk — wherever your organisation is exposed.
• US data. Firmer US activity & inflation data supported bond yields. USD a bit firmer against most currencies. AUD bucks the trend because of AU CPI.• AU pulse. July inflation higher than predicted. Odds of another RBA hike by year-end lift. Late-Sep meeting ‘live’. But has the AUD already factored it in?
Global Trends
A bit of a reversal in fortunes overnight across some markets...
Good morning. Currency markets are holding steady ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures index—an update that could shape expectations for interest rates ahead of Kevin Warsh’s closely-watched Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Oil prices are edging lower, helping to ease pressure on long-term yields, after Iran and Oman...
• Positive vibes. Improved sentiment about the US/Iran conflict has weighed on oil prices. Bond yields lower, equities higher. AUD & NZD rose overnight.• Data trends. Australian monthly CPI out today. US PCE deflator due tonight. Signs of moderating inflation may generate AUD & USD volatility.
Global Trends
Markets were in a slightly better mood overnight with bonds and equities underpinned...
Good morning. Measures of implied volatility are holding steady across financial markets, as the drumbeat of economic data slows and after the Trump administration’s threatened “economic D-Day” against Iran’s trading partners turned out to involve more rubber dinghies than landing craft. Treasury yields are edging lower (albeit from elevated levels), equity futures are advancing, and currency...
Donald Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian auto and steel products to 50%, a step that would mark a further breach of the USMCA agreement negotiated in his first term. The Canadian dollar is coming under selling pressure and interest rates are falling as traders price in a slower economy and a more dovish Bank of Canada.
“On January First, 2027, Tariffs on all Cars, Trucks, both large...
Good morning and welcome back. The US dollar is struggling to climb off a three-month low as traders digest last week’s Treasury buyback announcement and the breakdown in US-Canada trade negotiations, and await Friday’s speech from Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. Treasury yields are holding steady, equity futures are pointing to modest gains at the open, and the euro,...