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The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure landed in line with expectations in January, but left markets mostly unmoved, given that it predated the Iran conflict and was stale on arrival. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.4 percent from the prior month, accelerating slightly to 3.1 percent on a...
• Oil jolt. Another jump in oil prices weighed on sentiment. Equities lower, USD firmer. NZD weaker. AUD underperforms after its strong run.• Twists & turns. Markets pricing a supply risk premium in oil. More volatility likely. RBA next week with chances of a rate hike now sitting at ~70%.
Global Trends
Middle East developments continue to be in the driver’s seat. Sentiment remained negative...
Inflation slowed in the United States last month—before the war in Iran sent oil prices spiralling higher and triggered a sharp reappraisal of the Federal Reserve’s expected policy path. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 0.2 percent in February from the prior month, decelerating...
• Oil swings. Pull-back in oil prices has supported risk sentiment. Will it last? Situation in Middle East remains fluid. More volatility likely over period ahead.• RBA Hawks. AUD/USD at top of its range. RBA Dep. Gov ‘hawkish’ yesterday. Will it move next week? More than 2 hikes now priced in by September.
Global Trends
After a torrid end to last week and negative start on Monday sentiment...
Crude oil benchmarks are under intense selling pressure and currency markets are reversing direction after US president Donald Trump told CBS News “I think the war is very complete, pretty much”.
Trump said Iran had made a “big mistake” in choosing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba to be the country’s next supreme leader, warning “I don’t know if it’s going to last. I think they...
Foreign exchange markets are in upheaval after Iran war fears drove global crude prices nearly 30 percent higher over the weekend—but conditions could stabilise in coming hours if G7 countries tap their strategic petroleum reserves. According to the Financial Times, finance ministers from the major advanced economies are now discussing a co-ordinated release of oil reserves, with an announcement expected...