Corpay Currency Research
Corpay Currency Research delivers daily market updates, macroeconomic analysis, and longer-term forecasts to help you make fast, confident, and informed decisions on foreign exchange risk — wherever your organisation is exposed.
• Positive vibes. Improved sentiment about the US/Iran conflict has weighed on oil prices. Bond yields lower, equities higher. AUD & NZD rose overnight.• Data trends. Australian monthly CPI out today. US PCE deflator due tonight. Signs of moderating inflation may generate AUD & USD volatility.
Global Trends
Markets were in a slightly better mood overnight with bonds and equities underpinned...
Good morning. Measures of implied volatility are holding steady across financial markets, as the drumbeat of economic data slows and after the Trump administration’s threatened “economic D-Day” against Iran’s trading partners turned out to involve more rubber dinghies than landing craft. Treasury yields are edging lower (albeit from elevated levels), equity futures are advancing, and currency...
Donald Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian auto and steel products to 50%, a step that would mark a further breach of the USMCA agreement negotiated in his first term. The Canadian dollar is coming under selling pressure and interest rates are falling as traders price in a slower economy and a more dovish Bank of Canada.
“On January First, 2027, Tariffs on all Cars, Trucks, both large...
Good morning and welcome back. The US dollar is struggling to climb off a three-month low as traders digest last week’s Treasury buyback announcement and the breakdown in US-Canada trade negotiations, and await Friday’s speech from Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. Treasury yields are holding steady, equity futures are pointing to modest gains at the open, and the euro,...
Trade negotiations between the US and Canada collapsed last night, shortly before President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs were due to take effect on roughly $20bn in Canadian goods. In a statement, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada had suspended the negotiations over “last-minute changes” that were “unfair, uneconomic, and called into question the reliability of any deal”. He vowed to impose...
• US yields. Swings in US yields over the past few days on the back of Treasury news has generated some FX vol. AUD near top of its multi-week range.• AU jobs. Cracks in the AU labour market are widening. Unemployment at 2021 levels. RBA may not need to hike rates again. AUD headwinds building.
Global Trends
A few more ructions across markets over the past couple of sessions. But rather than being...