Corpay Currency Research
Corpay Currency Research delivers daily market updates, macroeconomic analysis, and longer-term forecasts to help you make fast, confident, and informed decisions on foreign exchange risk — wherever your organisation is exposed.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has pulled off a stunning upset in the second round of Brazil’s election, securing a fourth term as president, and wrongfooting currency traders who had bet on a change of economic direction in Latin America’s largest economy. Early results suggest that the 80-year-old leftist president has captured 50.6% of the vote, narrowly beating Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president...
Good morning, and happy Saturday.
Central bankers are still talking about inflation. Markets are starting to worry about growth. The war with Iran is exacerbating global inflation pressures and pushing up borrowing costs, straining economies burdened with heavy debt loads and wide budget deficits, while a reversal in technology sector valuations is dimming prospects for corporate investment and consumer...
The peso is suddenly facing serious headwinds
For much of this year, the “superpeso” lived up to its reputation. In late August, the exchange rate hit a two-year peak, and President Claudia Sheinbaum hailed it as one of the “strongest and most solid currencies in the world”.
Seven weeks later, the mood has soured. The peso has fallen for six consecutive weeks, its longest losing streak since 2019,...
• Positive tone. Solid tech sector earnings supported US stocks. Bond yields consolidated. AUD & NZD continue to grind up. AUD near ~6mth average.• AU trends. RBA Deputy Gov. Hauser reiterated that inflation challenges remain. Odds of another hike by year-end rise. Q4 AU CPI due next week.
Global Trends
The more upbeat tone in markets continued overnight. Solid earnings results from a few megacap...
Albertans voted to remain part of Canada in yesterday’s referendum, with an overwhelming majority rejecting a move to begin a separation process. According to preliminary results from several of Canada’s major broadcasters published in the last hour, roughly 76% of voters opposed a question that would launch a binding referendum on leaving the country, with 24% voting in favour. The result comes after...
• Upbeat mood. Sentiment improved overnight. US tech stocks rebounded despite a lift in yields. AUD & NZD ticked up. AUD outperformed on crosses.• Macro pulse. Social unrest in France adding to jitters about its debt trajectory. NZ CPI tomorrow. Next week AU CPI & US Fed meeting in the spotlight.
Global Trends
Markets were in a more upbeat mood overnight with risk sentiment improving. A...