United Kingdom
United Kingdom
Spot Exchange Rate
Indicative Interbank Spot Exchange Rate, Price of 1 British Pound in US Dollars, Updates Daily
The spot exchange rate is the indicative exchange rate applied to interbank foreign exchange transactions that are settled on the spot date – typically within two working days. The “base currency” is the first currency appearing in the pair, followed by the second part of the quotation, called the “counter currency”. The exchange rate indicates how much of the counter currency is needed to buy one unit of the base currency.
United Kingdom
Year to Date Performance
Gain or Loss Relative to USD, Year to Date, Updates Daily
Represents the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate relative to the US dollar year to date.
United Kingdom
Annual Movement
Year-To-Date % Change in GBPUSD Exchange Rate, Adjusted for Breaks, Updated Daily
Historical Movement compares this year’s exchange rate movement – the thick white line – with movement in previous years – the thinner blue lines – to illustrate the degree to which the rate has moved. Performance is equal to the percentage gain or loss in the exchange rate realized over the number of trading days shown on the horizontal axis.
United Kingdom
Currency Volatility
Realized 3-Month Historical GBPUSD Volatility v. Implied Volatility, 3-Month ATM Options, Updates Weekly
Represents realized volatility - the scale and frequency of moves over the prior three months - and implied volatility - the market’s expectations of moves over the next three months. Realized volatility is measured using the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over a three-month rolling time horizon, and implied volatility is derived from at-the-money three-month currency options.
United Kingdom
Fill Probability
Estimated likelihood of market order fill, updates weekly
Uses a five-year history of trading ranges to estimate the likelihood that a market order (limit order) placed at a specified number of pips away from the current mid-market spot level will be executed within a specific time horizon. A market order placed far above or below the current spot rate will have a lower fill probability than one placed closer to the current spot rate. This probability can vary during periods of higher or lower volatility, or when unexpected events trigger sharp directional moves.
United Kingdom
Probability Analysis
Estimated GBPUSD Expiration Range By Confidence Interval, Updates Daily
The Probability Analysis chart, based on a standard deviation bell curve, uses realized historical volatility to illustrate the likelihood that the exchange rate will end within a defined trading band at expiry. For example, we can be confident that 85 out of 100 times, the exchange rate will fall within the upper and lower bounds shown at the 85% confidence interval - and the exchange rate could end above or below these bounds in 15 out of 100 cases. Please Note: The confidence intervals depicted are generalized measures of probability based upon a parametric/ delta-normal analysis of a 5-year historical distribution of market movements, and are used to estimate the exchange rate uncertainties associated with different currencies and time periods. Smaller or larger movements than those outlined are possible. In currency markets specifically, major political and economic events can trigger moves that exceed any historically-driven model parameters.
United Kingdom
Forward Differential
Indicative 12-Month GBPUSD Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The 12-month forward differential quantifies the difference - expressed in basis points - between the prevailing spot exchange rate and a 12-month outright forward contract. This difference does not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but is instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair. The differential can be positive or negative depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
United Kingdom
Forward Curve
Indicative GBPUSD Forward Points by Month, Updates Weekly
The forward curve illustrates the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and outright forward contracts for various future dates. These differences do not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but are instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair over each period. The differential can be positive (premium) or negative (discount) depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
United Kingdom
Yield Differential
10-Year GBP-USD Government Bond Yield Differential, %, Updates Weekly
The Yield Differential chart illustrates the difference between 10-year benchmark British government bond (gilt) yields and their equivalent US Treasury yields. Positive values indicate higher yields in pounds than in US dollars, while negative values imply the opposite.
United Kingdom
Speculative Positioning
Net Long (+) or Short (-) British Pound Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars, Updates Weekly
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in US futures markets. Market participants follow the data to identify extreme long or short positions in a currency - something that can signal a trend reversal.
United Kingdom
Purchasing Power Parity
British Pound, Under (-) or Over (+) Valuation vs. US Dollar, OECD PPP, Updates Daily
Purchasing Power Parity measures whether market exchange rates are theoretically overvalued or undervalued. Purchasing Power Parities are conversion rates that attempt to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. Note that market rates can deviate from Purchasing Power Parity rates for years, even decades, at a time - so cannot be used to reliably forecast future exchange rate movements.
Latest Analysis
Latest Analysis
US dollar blues
30 June, 2025
• Pressure points. US equities hit another record high, while the USD remains under pressure. AUD has risen to the top of its multi-month range.• USD trends. USD index ~10.5% below where it started the...
US jobs in focus
29 June, 2025
• Holding on. Pockets of volatility on Friday but on net US equities & bond yields rose. EUR continues to climb. AUD drifted a little lower.• US macro. Consumer spending fell. Some signs of tariff...
Canadian Dollar Plunges As Trump Threatens To Reimpose Tariffs
27 June, 2025
The peace and quiet was nice, while it lasted. The Canadian dollar is down almost 60 basis points after President Donald Trump said he was ending all trade negotiations with the country, while threatening...
Markets Turn Cautious As US Consumer Spending Engine Slows
27 June, 2025
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure came in slightly hotter than expected in May—lending support to the central bank’s cautious approach—but personal spending levels missed forecasts, pointing...
USD losing altitude
26 June, 2025
• US trends. Outlook for US rate cuts supported sentiment & exerted more pressure on the USD. AUD at the top of its multi-month range.• Macro forces. Patchy US growth & signs the labour market...
"Shadow Fed Chair" Fears Drive Dollar Lower
26 June, 2025
The dollar is trading near a three-year low and Treasury yields are down across the curve after a report suggested that Donald Trump could appoint the next Federal Reserve chair early in an attempt to...
USD pressure points
25 June, 2025
• Mixed fortunes. US equities & bonds consolidated, while USD remains on backfoot. EUR & GBP near cyclical highs. AUD & NZD a little firmer.• USD trends. Fundamental forces continue to undermine...
Art of the truce
24 June, 2025
• Peacemaker. De-escalation of Israel/Iran conflict boosted sentiment. Equities rose, oil declined. This dragged down the USD. AUD & NZD higher.• Fed comments. Fed Chair Powell also spoke. Noted there...
Fragile Middle Eastern Truce Boosts Risk Assets
24 June, 2025
Oil prices are down dramatically, shares are gaining, and the dollar is retreating on signs that the latest round of hostilities in the Middle East is drawing to a close. A truce between Israel and Iran,...
Markets Shrug Off US Attack on Iranian Nuclear Facilities
23 June, 2025
The weekend’s US bombing raids on Iran left measures of global risk appetite essentially unchanged, suggesting that traders expect Tehran to respond in a limited fashion. Both the Brent international crude...