Mexico
Mexico
Spot Exchange Rate
Indicative Interbank Spot Exchange Rate, Price of 1 US Dollar in Mexican Peso, Updates Daily
The spot exchange rate is the indicative exchange rate applied to interbank foreign exchange transactions that are settled on the spot date – typically within two working days. The “base currency” is the first currency appearing in the pair, followed by the second part of the quotation, called the “counter currency”. The exchange rate indicates how much of the counter currency is needed to buy one unit of the base currency.
Mexico
Year to Date Performance
Gain or Loss Relative to USD, Year to Date, Updates Daily
Represents the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate relative to the US dollar year to date.
Mexico
Annual Movement
Year-To-Date % Change in MXNUSD Exchange Rate, Adjusted for Breaks, Updated Daily
Historical Movement compares this year’s exchange rate movement – the thick white line – with movement in previous years – the thinner blue lines – to illustrate the degree to which the rate has moved. Performance is equal to the percentage gain or loss in the exchange rate realized over the number of trading days shown on the horizontal axis.
Mexico
Currency Volatility
Realized 3-Month Historical USDMXN Volatility v. Implied Volatility, 3-Month ATM Options, Updates Weekly
Represents realized volatility - the scale and frequency of moves over the prior three months - and implied volatility - the market’s expectations of moves over the next three months. Realized volatility is measured using the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over a three-month rolling time horizon, and implied volatility is derived from at-the-money three-month currency options.
Mexico
Probability Analysis
Estimated USDMXN Expiration Range By Confidence Interval, Updates Daily
The Probability Analysis chart, based on a standard deviation bell curve, uses realized historical volatility to illustrate the likelihood that the exchange rate will end within a defined trading band at expiry. For example, we can be confident that 85 out of 100 times, the exchange rate will fall within the upper and lower bounds shown at the 85% confidence interval - and the exchange rate could end above or below these bounds in 15 out of 100 cases. Please Note: The confidence intervals depicted are generalized measures of probability based upon a parametric/ delta-normal analysis of a 5-year historical distribution of market movements, and are used to estimate the exchange rate uncertainties associated with different currencies and time periods. Smaller or larger movements than those outlined are possible. In currency markets specifically, major political and economic events can trigger moves that exceed any historically-driven model parameters.
Mexico
Forward Differential
Indicative 12-Month USDMXN Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The 12-month forward differential quantifies the difference - expressed in basis points - between the prevailing spot exchange rate and a 12-month outright forward contract. This difference does not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but is instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair. The differential can be positive or negative depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Mexico
Forward Curve
Indicative USDMXN Forward Points by Month, Updates Weekly
The forward curve illustrates the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and outright forward contracts for various future dates. These differences do not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but are instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair over each period. The differential can be positive (premium) or negative (discount) depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Mexico
Yield Differential
10-Year MXN-USD Government Bond Yield Differential, %, Updates Weekly
The Yield Differential chart illustrates the difference between 10-year benchmark Mexican government bond yields and their equivalent US Treasury yields. Positive values indicate higher yields in peso than in US dollars, while negative values imply the opposite.
Mexico
Speculative Positioning
Net Long (+) or Short (-) Mexican Peso Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars, Updates Weekly
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in US futures markets. Market participants follow the data to identify extreme long or short positions in a currency - something that can signal a trend reversal.
Mexico
Purchasing Power Parity
Mexican Peso, Under (-) or Over (+) Valuation vs. US Dollar, OECD PPP, Updates Daily
Purchasing Power Parity measures whether market exchange rates are theoretically overvalued or undervalued. Purchasing Power Parities are conversion rates that attempt to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. Note that market rates can deviate from Purchasing Power Parity rates for years, even decades, at a time - so cannot be used to reliably forecast future exchange rate movements.
Latest Analysis
Latest Analysis
USD bouncing back
09 September, 2024
• Shaky sentiment. A bit of a rebound in risk sentiment overnight following more turbulence on Friday after the US jobs report & Fed comments.• Market swings. US yields near bottom of their range....
Mean Reversion Dominates Markets After Inconclusive Jobs Report
09 September, 2024
Friday’s non-farm payrolls report failed to definitively settle the debate over the size of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut. Markets initially added to bets on a plus-sized move after the Bureau of...
Dollar Tumbles as US Labour Market Slows
06 September, 2024
US labour markets softened more than expected for a second month in August, bolstering odds on a more decisive easing response from central bankers this autumn. According to data released by the Bureau...
Dollar Edges Lower Into Payrolls
06 September, 2024
The dollar is trading near a one-week low as the minutes count down to what could easily become the year’s most pivotal data release: the August non-farm payrolls report. With investors broadly convinced...
US payrolls in focus
05 September, 2024
• Hold the line. US S&P500 dipped, as did US yields & the USD. US ADP employment underwhelmed. But this hasn’t been a great guide for payrolls.• US employment. Non-farm payrolls tonight....
Dollar Slips on Renewed Recession Fears
05 September, 2024
The dollar is back on the defensive after new data showed the US labour market cooling rapidly, increasing odds on a dramatic opening salvo in the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle later this month. Treasury...
Rate expectations jolted
04 September, 2024
• Mixed markets. Equities slipped again, while bond yields tumbled & the USD softened. JPY strengthened & the AUD clawed back a bit of ground.• US jolts. US job openings declined. US labour market...
Bank of Canada Cuts, Softens Dovish Stance
04 September, 2024
As had been widely expected, the Bank of Canada delivered a third consecutive rate cut this morning, and language in the accompanying communications helped prepare the ground for further easing in the...
Foreshocks Rumble Financial Markets
04 September, 2024
Seismic activity is intensifying across financial markets ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. A series of temblors hit during yesterday’s session, with Nvidia suffering the largest nominal one-day...
Australia GDP: growth vs levels
04 September, 2024
The dated Q2 Australian GDP confirmed what we should have already known. The growth pulse is subdued with higher interest rates and cost of living squeeze working to constrain consumer spending, construction,...