Mexico
Mexico
Spot Exchange Rate
Indicative Interbank Spot Exchange Rate, Price of 1 US Dollar in Mexican Peso, Updates Daily
The spot exchange rate is the indicative exchange rate applied to interbank foreign exchange transactions that are settled on the spot date – typically within two working days. The “base currency” is the first currency appearing in the pair, followed by the second part of the quotation, called the “counter currency”. The exchange rate indicates how much of the counter currency is needed to buy one unit of the base currency.
Mexico
Year to Date Performance
Gain or Loss Relative to USD, Year to Date, Updates Daily
Represents the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate relative to the US dollar year to date.
Mexico
Annual Movement
Year-To-Date % Change in MXNUSD Exchange Rate, Adjusted for Breaks, Updated Daily
Historical Movement compares this year’s exchange rate movement – the thick white line – with movement in previous years – the thinner blue lines – to illustrate the degree to which the rate has moved. Performance is equal to the percentage gain or loss in the exchange rate realized over the number of trading days shown on the horizontal axis.
Mexico
Currency Volatility
Realized 3-Month Historical USDMXN Volatility v. Implied Volatility, 3-Month ATM Options, Updates Weekly
Represents realized volatility - the scale and frequency of moves over the prior three months - and implied volatility - the market’s expectations of moves over the next three months. Realized volatility is measured using the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over a three-month rolling time horizon, and implied volatility is derived from at-the-money three-month currency options.
Mexico
Fill Probability
Estimated likelihood of market order fill, updates weekly
Uses a five-year history of trading ranges to estimate the likelihood that a market order (limit order) placed at a specified number of pips away from the current mid-market spot level will be executed within a specific time horizon. A market order placed far above or below the current spot rate will have a lower fill probability than one placed closer to the current spot rate. This probability can vary during periods of higher or lower volatility, or when unexpected events trigger sharp directional moves.
Mexico
Probability Analysis
Estimated USDMXN Expiration Range By Confidence Interval, Updates Daily
The Probability Analysis chart, based on a standard deviation bell curve, uses realized historical volatility to illustrate the likelihood that the exchange rate will end within a defined trading band at expiry. For example, we can be confident that 85 out of 100 times, the exchange rate will fall within the upper and lower bounds shown at the 85% confidence interval - and the exchange rate could end above or below these bounds in 15 out of 100 cases. Please Note: The confidence intervals depicted are generalized measures of probability based upon a parametric/ delta-normal analysis of a 5-year historical distribution of market movements, and are used to estimate the exchange rate uncertainties associated with different currencies and time periods. Smaller or larger movements than those outlined are possible. In currency markets specifically, major political and economic events can trigger moves that exceed any historically-driven model parameters.
Mexico
Forward Differential
Indicative 12-Month USDMXN Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The 12-month forward differential quantifies the difference - expressed in basis points - between the prevailing spot exchange rate and a 12-month outright forward contract. This difference does not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but is instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair. The differential can be positive or negative depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Mexico
Forward Curve
Indicative USDMXN Forward Points by Month, Updates Weekly
The forward curve illustrates the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and outright forward contracts for various future dates. These differences do not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but are instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair over each period. The differential can be positive (premium) or negative (discount) depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Mexico
Yield Differential
10-Year MXN-USD Government Bond Yield Differential, %, Updates Weekly
The Yield Differential chart illustrates the difference between 10-year benchmark Mexican government bond yields and their equivalent US Treasury yields. Positive values indicate higher yields in peso than in US dollars, while negative values imply the opposite.
Mexico
Speculative Positioning
Net Long (+) or Short (-) Mexican Peso Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars, Updates Weekly
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in US futures markets. Market participants follow the data to identify extreme long or short positions in a currency - something that can signal a trend reversal.
Mexico
Purchasing Power Parity
Mexican Peso, Under (-) or Over (+) Valuation vs. US Dollar, OECD PPP, Updates Daily
Purchasing Power Parity measures whether market exchange rates are theoretically overvalued or undervalued. Purchasing Power Parities are conversion rates that attempt to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. Note that market rates can deviate from Purchasing Power Parity rates for years, even decades, at a time - so cannot be used to reliably forecast future exchange rate movements.
Latest Analysis
Latest Analysis
All eyes on the US Fed
16 September, 2025
• Mixed markets. US equities consolidated while yields dipped & USD weakened. EUR at multi-year high. AUD at levels last traded in November.• US Fed. Tomorrow’s Fed decision in the spotlight....
US Fed in focus this week
14 September, 2025
• Consolidation. Quieter markets on Friday. US equities near record highs. USD tread water. AUD hovering near the top of its multi-month range.• Central banks. US Fed expected to re-start its cutting cycle....
Let the good times roll
11 September, 2025
• Upbeat vibes. Largely as expected US CPI reinforced US Fed rate cut thinking. US equities rose. USD softer. AUD touched a 10-month high.• US cuts. US Fed looks set to cut rates next week. A steady downshift...
Steady Inflation and Rising Jobless Claims Clear Path For More Fed Easing
11 September, 2025
Underlying consumer price growth held relatively steady in the United States last month, and initial jobless claims jumped last week, giving the Federal Reserve room—and motivation—to cut at next week’s...
AUD upswing continues
10 September, 2025
• Positive tone. Soft US producer prices reinforced Fed easing expectations. Equities rose & yields dipped. AUD touched highest point since November.• Fed pricing. US CPI due tonight. May generate...
Markets Rally Into the Open, Supported By AI Outlook and Weaker Inflation
10 September, 2025
Optimism is rippling across the financial markets and US equity futures are setting up for another strong open after Oracle Corp. said its contract backlog exploded by a staggering 359 percent to $455...
US jobs slowdown
09 September, 2025
• Mixed markets. US equities touched a record. Bond yields rose, as did the USD. AUD drifted back after coming close to its year-to-date peak.• US jobs. Revisions to US payrolls larger than anticipated....
Easing Financial Conditions Translate Into Broad-Based Optimism
09 September, 2025
A sense of optimism is percolating across global financial markets this morning, underpinned by hopes for a drawn-out monetary easing campaign from the Federal Reserve. Long-term bond yields are coming...
Onwards & upwards
08 September, 2025
• Upbeat tone. Markets continue to factor in US Fed rate cuts. US bond yields fell further & USD weakened. AUD approaching top of its year-to-date range.• US jobs. Benchmark revisions to US payrolls...
Markets Hunker Down Ahead of Inflation Reports
08 September, 2025
Currency markets are back in consolidation mode as investors keep an eye on international developments and await inflation data that could alter US monetary policy expectations across the front end of...