Mexico
Mexico
Spot Exchange Rate
Indicative Interbank Spot Exchange Rate, Price of 1 US Dollar in Mexican Peso, Updates Daily
The spot exchange rate is the indicative exchange rate applied to interbank foreign exchange transactions that are settled on the spot date – typically within two working days. The “base currency” is the first currency appearing in the pair, followed by the second part of the quotation, called the “counter currency”. The exchange rate indicates how much of the counter currency is needed to buy one unit of the base currency.
Mexico
Year to Date Performance
Gain or Loss Relative to USD, Year to Date, Updates Daily
Represents the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate relative to the US dollar year to date.
Mexico
Annual Movement
Year-To-Date % Change in MXNUSD Exchange Rate, Adjusted for Breaks, Updated Daily
Historical Movement compares this year’s exchange rate movement – the thick white line – with movement in previous years – the thinner blue lines – to illustrate the degree to which the rate has moved. Performance is equal to the percentage gain or loss in the exchange rate realized over the number of trading days shown on the horizontal axis.
Mexico
Currency Volatility
Realized 3-Month Historical USDMXN Volatility v. Implied Volatility, 3-Month ATM Options, Updates Weekly
Represents realized volatility - the scale and frequency of moves over the prior three months - and implied volatility - the market’s expectations of moves over the next three months. Realized volatility is measured using the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over a three-month rolling time horizon, and implied volatility is derived from at-the-money three-month currency options.
Mexico
Probability Analysis
Estimated USDMXN Expiration Range By Confidence Interval, Updates Daily
The Probability Analysis chart, based on a standard deviation bell curve, uses realized historical volatility to illustrate the likelihood that the exchange rate will end within a defined trading band at expiry. For example, we can be confident that 85 out of 100 times, the exchange rate will fall within the upper and lower bounds shown at the 85% confidence interval - and the exchange rate could end above or below these bounds in 15 out of 100 cases. Please Note: The confidence intervals depicted are generalized measures of probability based upon a parametric/ delta-normal analysis of a 5-year historical distribution of market movements, and are used to estimate the exchange rate uncertainties associated with different currencies and time periods. Smaller or larger movements than those outlined are possible. In currency markets specifically, major political and economic events can trigger moves that exceed any historically-driven model parameters.
Mexico
Forward Differential
Indicative 12-Month USDMXN Forward Points, Updates Weekly
The 12-month forward differential quantifies the difference - expressed in basis points - between the prevailing spot exchange rate and a 12-month outright forward contract. This difference does not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but is instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair. The differential can be positive or negative depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Mexico
Forward Curve
Indicative USDMXN Forward Points by Month, Updates Weekly
The forward curve illustrates the difference – expressed in basis points – between the prevailing spot exchange rate and outright forward contracts for various future dates. These differences do not express a directional market view on future spot rates, but are instead derived from the gap between the interest rates in the two currencies in the pair over each period. The differential can be positive (premium) or negative (discount) depending on which currency has the lower or higher interest rate, with the higher yielding currency discounted going forward and vice versa.
Mexico
Yield Differential
10-Year MXN-USD Government Bond Yield Differential, %, Updates Weekly
The Yield Differential chart illustrates the difference between 10-year benchmark Mexican government bond yields and their equivalent US Treasury yields. Positive values indicate higher yields in peso than in US dollars, while negative values imply the opposite.
Mexico
Speculative Positioning
Net Long (+) or Short (-) Mexican Peso Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars, Updates Weekly
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in US futures markets. Market participants follow the data to identify extreme long or short positions in a currency - something that can signal a trend reversal.
Mexico
Purchasing Power Parity
Mexican Peso, Under (-) or Over (+) Valuation vs. US Dollar, OECD PPP, Updates Daily
Purchasing Power Parity measures whether market exchange rates are theoretically overvalued or undervalued. Purchasing Power Parities are conversion rates that attempt to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. Note that market rates can deviate from Purchasing Power Parity rates for years, even decades, at a time - so cannot be used to reliably forecast future exchange rate movements.
Latest Analysis
Latest Analysis
Sentiment Remains Weak As Tariff Fears Outweigh Still-Supportive Fundamentals
30 May, 2025
Measures of risk appetite remain soft in currency markets amid mounting concern that Donald Trump’s tariffs may prove more enduring than had been hoped. A federal appeals court yesterday granted the administration...
Dollar Slump Continues As Appeals Court Temporarily Reinstates Trump Tariffs
29 May, 2025
A federal appeals court has temporarily paused implementation of last night’s ruling that voided President Trump’s most wide-ranging tariffs. The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issued an order...
Tariff Celebration Proves Short-Lived
29 May, 2025
Financial markets this morning celebrated a temporary reprieve from President Trump’s trade war after the bipartisan US Court of International Trade ruled that he overstepped his authority in using emergency...
Markets Soar After Trump Tariffs Are Ruled Illegal
28 May, 2025
The dollar and equity futures are spiking higher after the US Court of International Trade invalidated many of President Trump’s tariffs on key trading partners, finding in two cases that he had substantially...
Rally Fades As Uncertainties Remain
28 May, 2025
Traders are trimming risk after yesterday’s relief rally took market valuations a little too far. A rebound across Treasuries, equity indices, and the US dollar – initially driven by the Trump administration’s...
Tumult Fades As Intense Trading Week Begins
27 May, 2025
Measures of risk appetite are improving this morning amid signs of an easing in last week’s bond market tantrum, and following a brief escalation in cross-Atlantic trade tensions. Equity markets are setting...
Tariff sabre rattling
25 May, 2025
• Tariff news. Threats of increased US tariffs on the EU rattled nerves on Friday. US President Trump pushed out the deadline this morning.• FX trends. US growth challenges & policy uncertainty weighs...
Yields Push Higher as Debt Worries Intensify
22 May, 2025
Treasury markets are extending their losses this morning on worries that funding strains could reach unsustainable levels after the House of Representatives passed President Donald Trump’s broad-reaching...
Dollar Retreats As Market Momentum Slows
21 May, 2025
The ‘Sell America’ trade is back in play this morning. The dollar is unwinding last week’s gains and is down against all of its major counterparts, US equity markets are setting up for a bruising open,...
Markets Retreat on Signs of Consumer Strain
15 May, 2025
The dollar is retreating as optimism surrounding the weekend’s trade deal continues to diminish and US consumers show signs of exhaustion, leaving investors to contemplate longer-term risks to the American...