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Market Brief, North America

09 Sep 2024

Mean Reversion Dominates Markets After Inconclusive Jobs Report

Friday’s non-farm payrolls report failed to definitively settle the debate over the size of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut. Markets initially added to bets on a plus-sized move after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a slower-than-anticipated pace of job creation through July and August, but soon reversed on evidence of underlying stability in labour markets – the unemployment rate edged lower, the prime age employment rate remained historically high, and growth in average hourly earnings showed signs of accelerating. A widely-anticipated speech from Governor Waller didn’t clarify things much either. Odds on a half-percentage-point move shot up as...

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06 Sep 2024

Dollar Edges Lower Into Payrolls

The dollar is trading near a one-week low as the minutes count down to what could easily become the year’s most pivotal data release: the August non-farm payrolls report. With investors broadly convinced that the data will improve, but nonetheless set the stage for at least one jumbo-sized rate cut from the Federal Reserve this autumn, the greenback is slipping against its major rivals, especially the yen, while Treasury yields are edging lower, and stock futures are coming under pressure. Consensus estimates suggest that the US added 165,000 new jobs in August, up from the 114,000 reported in July, but...

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05 Sep 2024

Dollar Slips on Renewed Recession Fears

The dollar is back on the defensive after new data showed the US labour market cooling rapidly, increasing odds on a dramatic opening salvo in the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle later this month. Treasury yields are stabilising after yesterday’s tumble and equity futures are advancing ahead of this morning’s weekly jobless claims number, but directional position-taking remains restrained, with tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report poised to play a pivotal role in determining market outcomes across virtually every major asset class. The number of job openings fell in July to the lowest level since the start of 2021, according to yesterday’s Job...

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04 Sep 2024

Foreshocks Rumble Financial Markets

Seismic activity is intensifying across financial markets ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. A series of temblors hit during yesterday’s session, with Nvidia suffering the largest nominal one-day wipeout in market history, the S&P 500 falling by more than 2 percent, the VIX “fear index” jumping by more than a third, and currency markets seeing at least three wholesale trend reversals in the space of eight hours. Today looks set to deliver a more muted version of the same, with futures pointing to renewed selling, Treasury yields inching lower, and the dollar slipping against its major rivals ahead of the...

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03 Sep 2024

Investors Batten the Hatches Ahead of a Stormy September

The dollar is blowing into September with a full head of steam as traders brace for what could prove to be this year’s most pivotal economic data release: Friday’s August non-farm payrolls report. Two-year Treasury yields are edging higher, stock market futures are softening, and the greenback is climbing against most of its major counterparts, with rallies in the euro and pound showing clear signs of exhaustion. Today’s update from the Institute for Supply Management could move markets. The Institute’s manufacturing purchasing manager index is expected to show the factory sector remaining firmly in contractionary territory, with new orders continuing...

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