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Market Brief, North America

14 May 2026

Trading ranges compress as newsflow slows

Good morning. Price action in currency markets is slowing to a crawl and the dollar is consolidating yesterday’s gains as traders keep their powder dry amid a lack of clear directional catalysts. Brent crude futures are holding near $106 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate is flirting with $102 after India said one of its vessels had come under attack off the coast of Oman and multiple sources reported an Iranian seizure of a ship anchored off the United Arab Emirates. Equity indices are advancing on reports that the US will permit Nvidia to sell its second-most advanced artificial intelligence...

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13 May 2026

Oil prices resume climb, inflation fears stalk global bond markets

Good morning. Oil prices are holding yesterday’s gains and the dollar is advancing on reports suggesting that the Trump administration is considering rebranding* its war with Iran as “Operation Sledgehammer” should Tehran reject US demands and the current ceasefire collapse. According to multiple sources, President Trump is weighing a resumption of major combat operations after declaring an end to “Operation Epic Fury” when a ceasefire took effect in early April, with the expectation that a new designation would reset the 60-day legal clock requiring congressional authorisation for hostilities. Intelligence assessments publicised by the New York Times** suggest Iran retains roughly...

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12 May 2026

Dollar grinds higher as inflation data looms and oil prices rise

Good morning and happy US inflation day to all who celebrate. The dollar is advancing and Treasury yields are edging higher in the run-up to the week’s most important data release at 8:30, which is expected to show prices rising 3.7% in the year to April—the fastest rate since 2023. Most major currencies—including the euro, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar—are down roughly a third of a percent against the greenback from yesterday’s close. Oil prices are on the ascent once again after President Trump called the latest Iranian peace proposal “garbage” and said...

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11 May 2026

US-Iran negotiations fall apart—again—leading to reversal in currency markets

The dollar is advancing against its major rivals, buoyed by Friday’s stronger-than-expected payrolls report and yet another collapse in US-Iran peace talks*. Days after the Trump administration triggered a relief rally in financial markets by dangling a peace offer, Tehran yesterday released a response that reportedly demanded an end to the US naval blockade, a lifting of sanctions, a cessation of military operations, and formal recognition of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz—while deferring the nuclear question entirely. President Trump dismissed these terms as “totally unacceptable”. Front-month crude prices are up 2.5% from Friday’s close—with Brent trading at $103...

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10 May 2026

Two steps forward, one step back

• Push-pull forces. Positive US jobs offset by US rejecting Iran’s latest offer. US equity futures dipped & oil higher this morning. AUD at elevated levels.• Macro news. Australian budget in focus (Tues night). In the US, CPI inflation is due (Tues night). US producer prices & retail sales out later in the week. Global Trends Risk sentiment ended last week on positive footing as hopes for a US/Iran deal were compounded by a better than expected US jobs report. US non-farm payrolls surprised to the upside, rising by 115,000 in April. This broke the zig-zag pattern observed over the...

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