Market Brief, North America

The dollar is trading near its lowest levels in months, bond yields are plunging, and equity indices advancing after Axios reported that Washington and Tehran are nearing an agreement to end the war in the Middle East. Both global crude benchmarks are down more than 9%, with Brent trading below $100 and West Texas Intermediate nearing $90, and most major currencies are climbing against the greenback as traders scale back expectations for an energy price-induced shock to economies with heavy import exposures. A US-Iran deal could reshape the conflict and reduce risk across the global economy. According to Axios, Jared...

Happy Monday. Oil prices are reverting higher and the dollar is holding steady after President Donald Trump announced plans to “guide”—but not escort—shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command, which is currently blockading Iranian ports, said 15,000 service members and more than 100 aircraft, along with warships and drones would support the initiative, yet stopped short of putting surface combatants at risk by offering convoy protection through the narrow waterway. A tanker off Fujairah reported being ⁠hit by “unknown projectiles” shortly after the US announcement, and Tehran this morning said it was implementing a new “control zone” in...

Good morning. The dollar is beating a retreat from two-week highs as traders process the implications from four major central bank decisions, three critical economic data releases, another leg higher in crude prices, and a “final” currency intervention warning from Japanese authorities. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged in a meeting that exposed a growing hawkish tilt among many members of the policy committee. With inflation risks intensifying, regional presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan backed the decision to hold but objected to statement language implying the central bank will eventually resume easing. Governor Miran again dissented in favour of...

Oil benchmarks and the dollar are extending yesterday’s gains after the Wall Street Journal said US president Donald Trump is preparing to maintain an indefinite blockade against Iranian shipping, rather than accepting Tehran’s peace proposal or resuming military attacks. Barrels of Brent crude are trading for more than $114, while West Texas Intermediate changes hands for $103, and the greenback is reversing last week’s losses as hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict fade. Equity futures, by contrast, are climbing ahead of the open as investors anticipate strong earnings from a number of technology behemoths, including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta,...