Market Brief, North America

Good morning. The US dollar is trading near a seven-month low ahead of key inflation data today and tomorrow that could determine the outcome of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have slowed to a trickle after a series of American and Iranian attacks on ships and energy infrastructure, forcing global oil prices back above $100 a barrel. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near a three-year high after the Treasury said yesterday it would buy just $6bn of long-dated bonds in its buyback operation, disappointing investors who had expected a purchase volume closer to $10bn....

Good morning. The dollar is holding firm as a new outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East sends oil prices to their highest since late July, raising the stakes ahead of Friday’s US inflation report—and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Brent crude, the global benchmark, is holding near $100 a barrel after the US and Iran each attacked oil tankers over the weekend, and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis struck energy facilities and cities across Saudi Arabia. Ten-year Treasury yields are near levels last seen in January 2025, equity futures are pointing to a weaker open, and speculators are paring long bets...

Good morning. The dollar is back on the defensive after the yen posted its biggest two-day gain since last month’s historic US-Japanese intervention. Brent crude is trading just below $95, after this week’s escalation in military hostilities between the US and Iran. Sovereign-bond yields are steadying below their recent highs, and equity futures are holding firm ahead of the North American open. The euro and pound are treading water amid a lack of domestic catalysts. The yen is up almost 2%, having surged twice in the last day. The causes are somewhat mysterious. One possibility is that the moves were...

Good morning. The dollar is advancing against all its major counterparts as the conflict in the Middle East turns hot and the rout in global bond markets grinds on. The euro, pound, and yen are trading softer ahead of a raft of US data releases, including the monthly ADP employment print, durable goods orders, and Beige Book survey—none of which are typically market moving, but any of which might contribute to expectations for monetary tightening in the months ahead. Oil prices are climbing after the US launched another round of strikes on Iranian targets—including two tankers—and Tehran said it had...

Good morning. A rout in global bond markets is intensifying and the dollar is climbing as an outbreak in hostilities between the US and Iran revives inflation risks, raises the likelihood of interest rate hikes in the months ahead, and makes safe havens more appealing. Energy prices are ratcheting higher after two supertankers were reportedly struck by anti-ship missiles while passing through the Strait of Hormuz overnight. With the threat of a prolonged disruption once again growing more acute, Brent is trading near $92 a barrel, up 4% over the past week, while West Texas Intermediate stands at $88, up...