Market Brief, North America

Good morning. Markets are shifting onto a broadly positive footing after Iran said that it had reached a deal with Oman to permit shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Under the temporary arrangement reported yesterday, tankers would pass without charge for sixty days—though Iran is said to want an eventual toll of 5-7% of cargo value, against the 3% Oman favours. The Trump administration appears content to let this play out: stocks of key munitions are running low, and mid-term elections are looming. Brent crude is steady around $80 a barrel and Treasury yields are holding firm, while equities are...

Good morning. Market sentiment has turned markedly more optimistic on reports suggesting that Iran and Oman are nearing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Under the arrangement being discussed, ships bound for the Persian Gulf would enter through Iranian territorial waters, while those leaving would exit through Omani ones. No “service fees”* would be levied during an initial 60-day provisional phase, though the parties have left open the possibility of charging them later. Brent crude is holding near $80 a barrel, down roughly 11% from Friday’s close, the Treasury curve is flattening, and North American bourses are set...

Good morning. Oil benchmarks are recouping some of yesterday’s losses and the dollar is advancing narrowly, with long-end Treasury yields creeping up and equity futures pointing to modest gains at the open. The euro, pound and Canadian dollar are also edging higher in rangebound trading. The geopolitical picture remains unclear. President Trump yesterday claimed talks with Tehran were under way, warning of a “last chance” to sign a deal, but Iran’s foreign ministry said no negotiations were taking place and no meetings were scheduled. “I want to give them every last chance before decapitation,” Trump later told reporters, adding “you’ll...