Market Brief, North America

Good morning. Oil prices and currency markets are stabilising after yet another escalation in the conflict between the United States and Iran left the status quo* in the Strait of Hormuz largely intact. In the aftermath of Tuesday’s Iranian attacks on shipping, President Trump said the ceasefire was “over” and authorised American forces to launch a second wave of strikes against Iranian targets last night, prompting Tehran to strike back at US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Global crude benchmarks are almost unchanged from yesterday’s close, Treasury yields are holding steady, and equity futures are pointing to an incremental...

Good morning. The dollar is holding firm even after Thursday’s disappointing non-farm payrolls report triggered a pullback in Federal Reserve tightening expectations. American employers added just 57,000 workers in June, far short of the 115,000 forecast, and revisions lopped a combined 74,000 from the previous two months. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but not because of a pickup in hiring—labour-force participation dropped to 61.5%, its lowest since March 2021. With a no-hire, no-fire equilibrium persisting and wage pressures seen remaining contained, investors are placing 20% odds on a hike in July and 45% on a move by September, down...