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Market Brief, North America

Rising Unemployment Hits Both US and Canadian Dollars

The US job creation engine came back to life in November after October’s strike- and hurricane-related slowdown, but the rebound likely wasn’t strong enough to derail the Federal Reserve’s easing plans. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 227,000 jobs were added in the month – topping the 220,000-consensus forecast – and October’s headline print was revised up to 36,000 from the 12,000 previously estimated. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.4 percent month-over-month, holding at the pace set in the prior month. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.2 percent however, adding to signs of broader labour market...

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Markets Steady After South Korean Shock

The dollar is pushing higher, Treasury yields are steadying, and equity futures are advancing as the French government moves closer to collapse and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell prepares to deliver potentially market-moving remarks later this morning. The Korean won plunged yesterday when President Soon Suk Yeol shocked citizens by declaring martial law for the first time in 40 years, deploying the military on South Korean streets. The apparent autogolpe* attempt was quickly undone by lawmakers in an emergency vote – and the currency is now almost fully recovered – but markets have grown more uncertain about the future of...

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Dollar Rally Eases on Waller Comments, Euro Remains Under Pressure

The dollar is trading with a softer bias this morning after Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested that he would support cutting rates at the central bank’s next meeting, helping put pressure on the front end of the US yield curve. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are inching higher as traders double down on bets that Donald Trump’s recent tariff threats will come to naught, the Japanese yen is climbing on a narrowing in rate differentials, and the pound is trying to build the momentum to break back into the high 1.20’s against the greenback. “At present, I lean toward...

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Dollar Rallies Back, Euro Tumbles

The ‘US exceptionalism’ theme is back to driving markets this morning, helping the dollar snap a three-day losing streak against most of its rivals. The euro is coming under pressure as the French government struggles to pass a budget, the Swiss franc is advancing amid stronger safe-haven flows, and major high-beta currencies – like the Canadian dollar – are all off around half a percentage point. The dollar’s outperformance this year can be seen clearly in the chart below, which shows trade-weighted values through November 27. After softening in the run-up to the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut, the currency...

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Dollar Softens, Canadian Growth Remains Lacklustre

Amid turbulent month-end flows and a serious tryptophan hangover, the dollar is retreating and volatility expectations are falling as investors bet that Donald Trump’s trade bite won’t match his bark. The greenback looks headed toward its biggest weekly loss in three months after several relatively-moderate cabinet picks – most notably Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary – helped assuage market fears of a more extremist policy mix in the president’s second term, lowering long-term yields and reducing the risk discount embedded in other major currencies. Equity futures are pointing toward further gains in today’s holiday-shortened session, the ten-year Treasury yield is...

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