Market Brief, North America

Happy Friday. Oil prices and the dollar are paring their losses this morning after dropping sharply yesterday on reports of a tentative agreement between the US and Iran. According to multiple sources, the two sides have agreed to extend their ceasefire by 60 days, schedule a fresh round of negotiations on Iranian nuclear materials, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a month. But Tehran has not confirmed the text, President Trump has not yet signed off, and after a series of false dawns investors are growing more cautious as the session progresses*. Although both global crude benchmarks are down...

Good morning. In subdued trading, oil prices are extending their decline, equities are advancing, Treasury yields are easing from recent highs, and currency markets remain dormant after President Trump said talks with Iran are in the “final stages”—leaving many investors awaiting something more conclusive. Trump warned that Washington could resume strikes within days if peace talks fail to advance, while Tehran cautioned that any renewed aggression would trigger a conflict extending “beyond the region”. Although a number of oil tankers have crossed after coordinating with Iranian authorities, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to international shipping, sustaining history’s biggest...

A bruising multi-day selloff in government bonds is showing signs of exhaustion this morning as investors train attention on Nvidia’s first-quarter results after the closing bell—an event that has become one of the most reliable positive catalysts for risk appetite in global markets. US equity futures are pointing to a tentative recovery after three days of losses, and the dollar is surrendering some of the gains achieved in recent sessions as rising Treasury yields have widened rate differentials against the euro and other major currencies. Oil prices are down roughly 2% amid a relative lull in Iran war headlines, and...