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Inflation & politics this weeks focus

• Macro trends. Weaker EZ PMIs weighed on EUR. Positive US surprises also helped the USD. AUD drifted lower, but still rose over the week.• AUD crosses. Diverging trends still AUD supportive, particularly on crosses. AUD/EUR & AUD/CAD near respective 1-year highs. AUD/JPY north of 106.• Event radar. Locally, monthly CPI (Weds) & speech by the RBA Dep. Gov in focus. US PCE deflator due (Fri) & first Presidential Election debate will be held. Diverging business PMI data from Europe and the US generated a few intra-session market gyrations on Friday. The US data defied gravity with the PMIs improving...

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Dollar Steadies Ahead of Equity Market ‘Triple Witching’

The US dollar looks set to consolidate its weekly gains in today’s session as traders remain cautious, but equity markets could exhibit some volatility as a ‘triple witching’ episode – when stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options expire on the same day – contributes to abnormal activity. Treasury yields are holding steady, and oil prices are inching higher. The Mexican peso staged a modest recovery late in yesterday’s session after Claudia Sheinbaum said she would appoint former foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard to head the economic ministry, helping assuage market concerns around a lurch toward populist policymaking. Ebrard...

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AUD cross-currents

• Mixed markets. European equities rose, while US stocks slipped back. Dovish European central bank outcomes weighed on EUR & GBP. USD a bit firmer.• Central banks. SNB cut rates again. The BoE opened the door to a move in August. The cross-currents pushed AUD/EUR & AUD/GBP higher.• Data flow. PMIs in focus today with data from Europe & the US due. Is the US’ outperformance fading? If so, the USD may lose ground. There were several pieces of global economic news overnight, yet for the most part the net financial market moves were modest. Equities across Europe rose again...

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Central Bank Easing Hints Boost Risk Appetite

The dollar is reversing an early-week decline and Treasury yields are creeping higher as market participants return from yesterday’s US holiday. North American equity futures are adding to their gains, and a broader improvement in sentiment is helping feed through into appreciation in high-beta currencies – like the Canadian dollar – amid still-thin trading conditions. A surprise easing decision from the Swiss National Bank is helping bolster liquidity expectations. Officials in the financial safe haven elected to lower inflation projections and deliver a 25 basis point rate cut as they work to reduce restrictiveness and counter recent strength in the...

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AUD outperformance continues

• Quiet trade. A public holiday in the US. European equities a bit lower. UK yields a touch higher after UK services inflation surprised. USD consolidates.• AUD trends. The AUD’s post RBA grind higher extended. AUD/EUR touched a 1-year high, AUD/JPY at levels last traded in 2013.• Global data. Q1 NZ GDP shows economy emerged from ‘technical recession’. Bank of England meeting tonight. With the US away on a mid-week public holiday markets were quiet overnight. US equity and bond markets were closed. In Europe, equities gave back a little ground (EuroStoxx50 -0.6%), although the UK FTSE100 moved in the...

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