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Market Wire, North America

Brazil’s Lula wins presidential election, shocking currency markets

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has pulled off a stunning upset in the second round of Brazil’s election, securing a fourth term as president, and wrongfooting currency traders who had bet on a change of economic direction in Latin America’s largest economy. Early results suggest that the 80-year-old leftist president has captured 50.6% of the vote, narrowly beating Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who came first in the first round and held a slight lead in the polls going into the run-off. On the face of it, the Brazilian real looks exposed to a violent selloff as...

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Albertans reject separation vote

Albertans voted to remain part of Canada in yesterday’s referendum, with an overwhelming majority rejecting a move to begin a separation process. According to preliminary results from several of Canada’s major broadcasters published in the last hour, roughly 76% of voters opposed a question that would launch a binding referendum on leaving the country, with 24% voting in favour. The result comes after decades of relative neglect from Ottawa, but also amid a drumbeat of sovereignty threats from Donald Trump and a westward policy tilt under Prime Minister Mark Carney, himself a former Albertan. Foreign exchange markets are shrugging. There...

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Underlying Canadian inflation cools, lowering monetary tightening expectations

There was again little evidence of energy price spillovers in Canada last month, with underlying inflation pressures holding steady, slightly reducing market-implied odds on a rate hike from the Bank of Canada at its meeting next week. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed core inflation – which strips out food and energy prices – and is computed as the average of the two price measures now preferred by the central bank (trim and median) – rising just 1.9% on a year-over-year basis from 2.0% previously. Although a jump in gasoline prices lifted the headline all-items measure, with prices...

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Underlying US inflation pressures intensify, strengthening dollar

Underlying consumer prices rose more quickly than expected in the United States last month, strengthening the case for more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, and lifting the dollar. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 0.3% in September from the prior month, maintaining the pace set in August, and climbing 2.6% relative to the same period last year, well ahead of the 2.4% consensus forecast as price pressures broadened across categories. The more-volatile all-items headline price measure jumped 0.6% from the prior month...

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Fed hikes rates, signals more to come

As had been widely expected, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates and telegraphed at least one additional move this year as policymakers grapple with rising inflation risks — putting the central bank on a hawkish footing that should help stabilise the dollar. After two days of discussion, the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to raise the target range for the federal funds rate between 3.75 and 4.00%, matching market expectations that had built after August’s strong jobs and inflation reports. In a brief statement setting out the decision, the committee again acknowledged persistently-high uncertainty but noted that economic activity...

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