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Risk Appetite Surges After Soft Inflation Data

The dollar is stabilising this morning, but is still headed for a weekly loss after yesterday’s US consumer price index report showed inflation easing even more than markets had expected, triggering a stampede into risk-sensitive assets. Two- and ten-year yields are inching higher after falling to their lowest since March, equity futures are setting up for a more positive open after experiencing a violent sectoral rotation – the Russell 2000 small-cap index advanced by the most against the Nasdaq 100 since November 2020 – and currency markets are entering a consolidative phase. The pound and euro are both adding to...

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US Inflation Eases, Supporting Rate Cut Expectations

Consumer price growth slowed more than anticipated in the United States last month, putting the Federal Reserve on a heading toward easing policy in September. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.3 percent in June from the same period last year – the smallest gain since April 2021 – and was up just 0.1 percent on a month-over-month basis. This undershot consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release, which were set at...

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Dollar Retreats Ahead of Inflation Print

Yields are softening and the dollar is dropping ahead of US inflation numbers that could bolster the case for policy easing from the Federal Reserve. On a trade-weighted basis, the greenback is holding near a one-month low as most of its rivals advance. Data out in less than half an hour is expected to show underlying US consumer prices rising at the slowest two-month pace since last summer, reinforcing market confidence in a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ core inflation measure is seen climbing just 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis, with goods...

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Will the US CPI jolt markets?

• Mixed markets. Equities push higher with long-end yields a bit lower. USD consolidates. AUD treading water near the top of its multi-month range.• RBNZ shift. A change in the RBNZ’s tone. Door to rate cuts opening. AUD/NZD’s upswing continues. AUD/NZD at its highest since Q4 2022.• US CPI. Challenging base-effects could keep annual inflation steady. But the monthly pulse expected to be soft. Something for everyone likely in the data. There was generally an upbeat tone across markets overnight, although that didn’t flow through to the major currencies as they remained range bound. US equities powered ahead with a...

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Markets Hold Firm After Cautious Fedspeak

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell was disappointingly non-committal on the likelihood of a September rate cut in yesterday’s appearance before the Senate Banking Committee, explicitly saying “I’m not going to be sending any signals about the timing of future actions”. The Fed Funds futures curve remained essentially unchanged, with two moves priced in this year, and roughly four expected by June 2025. Dovish hints were there, though, for those determined to find them. In noting that “elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” saying that labour costs are “not a source of inflationary pressures now,” and emphasising the...

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