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USD

25 Mar 2025

Holding on

• Push-pull. Modest market moves overnight. US equities ticked up, bond yields dipped. Copper rose. USD a bit softer. AUD edged back over ~$0.63• AU Budget. Small surprise tax cut starts in mid-2026. RBA outlook unchanged as overall fiscal impulse little different. Federal Election due by 17 May.• Data flow. Monthly AU CPI indicator released today. Global markets still focused on US reciprocal tariffs which will be announced on 2 April. Global Trends Market moves were rather modest overnight. A late-session rally in a few of the US big tech stocks saw the S&P500 eke out a small gain (+0.2%)...

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23 Mar 2025

Tariff guessing game

• Hold the line. US equities ticked up on Friday, as did the USD. EUR & GBP eased back at the end of last week, as did the AUD & NZD.• Tariff news. US’ reciprocal tariffs set to be unveiled on 2 April. What form they will take is still unknown. Uncertainty may generate more volatility.• Event radar. In AU the Budget & monthly CPI are due this week. Globally, PMIs are released. In the US the PCE deflator is out on Friday night. Global Trends It was an uneventful end to the trading week on Friday with no major...

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20 Mar 2025

Swings & roundabouts

• Jitters return. Post-US Fed optimism faded. Equities slipped back. USD index rose. NZD & AUD depreciated. AUD near ~$0.63, its March average.• AU jobs. February figures had more noise than signal. Employment fell but unemployment held steady. RBA shouldn’t jump at one month’s data.• Trading ranges. Yesterdays intra-day swing in AUD & NZD was larger than average. More vol. likely as the US’ 2 April ‘reciprocal tariff’ day nears. Global Trends The burst of market optimism, particularly in equities and cyclical currencies, after yesterday’s US Fed meeting when Chair Powell outlined that the tariff impact on inflation could be...

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19 Mar 2025

An uncertain world

• US Fed. No surprises with the Fed keeping interest rates on hold & noting uncertainty has “increased” due to what is happening policy-wise.• Mixed markets. US equities rose while bond yields declined. The USD gave back earlier gains. AUD near ~$0.6360 ahead of today’s AU jobs report.• NZ GDP. Data confirmed NZ emerged from recession in Q4 ’24. But there is still a lot of ‘slack’ suggesting more RBNZ rate cuts still likely. Global Trends The US Federal Reserve was in focus this morning. And much like the broader market the world’s most influential central bank stressed that the...

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17 Mar 2025

Upbeat risk sentiment

• Positive tone. Solid start to the week for risk assets. Equities rose, as did copper. USD softer. NZD (+1.3%) & AUD (+1%) outperform.• Macro trends. China data showed signs of improving momentum. Topline US retail sales weaker than expected. Growth trends weighing on the USD.• Central banks. Over coming days the Bank of Japan, US Fed, & Bank of England meet. Will the US Fed be more focused on inflation or growth? Global Trends Last Friday’s burst of market optimism has carried over into the new week. The equity market rebound extended with the US S&P500 (+0.6%) recording its...

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