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Higher for (even) longer

• Fed speak. Chair Powell endorsed the upswing in rates pricing by noting the lack of further progress on inflation. US yields rise, equities fall.• USD support. The rates outlook is underpinning the USD. AUD touched its lowest level since mid-November with USD trends overpowering China GDP.• Priced in? Markets are now discounting a very ‘hawkish’ Fed interest rate outlook. The lofty USD may need another catalyst to move even higher. Market sentiment has stayed on the defensive as the outlook for ‘higher for longer’ US interest rates continues to sink in. The major European equity markets fell overnight (EuroStoxx50...

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USD upswing continues

• Shaky sentiment. Middle East jitters were compounded by stronger US retail sales. Higher US bond yields weighed on equities & supported the USD.• AUD lower. Yesterday’s modest AUD recovery unwound overnight. The AUD is near its 2024 lows. USD upswing is pressuring other currencies.• China & Fed speakers. China Q1 GDP released today. Several US Fed members also due to speak. The list includes Fed Chair Powell. After the market mood picked up during yesterday’s Asian trade sentiment soured overnight. The familiar forces of jitters about the situation in the Middle East after Israel vowed to respond and outlook...

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Middle East tensions flare up

• Negative vibes. Sentiment soured on Friday as Middle East concerns rose. Equities & bond yields lost ground. The stronger USD pushed down the AUD.• Middle East. The situation in the Middle East remains fluid. Developments will be front of mind for investors at the start of the new week. Will oil prices spike?• Event radar. US retail sales due tonight. Several Fed members speaking this week. Across the region, China GDP, NZ CPI & AU jobs report are due. Risk sentiment ended last week on the backfoot, and geopolitical developments over the weekend point to further potential short-term turbulence....

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Calm After the Storm Brings Currency Volatility Down

Treasury yields are stabilising and the dollar is recovering ground after losing a little altitude during yesterday’s session when a closely-watched input cost index climbed by less than expected. The producer price index for final demand rose just 0.2 percent month-over-month in March, with a third consecutive increase in services costs obscuring a cooling in many of the components that go into the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. Taken in combination with Wednesday’s consumer price print, the data suggest that the personal consumption expenditures index will rise somewhere between 0.2 and 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis when the next update...

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Dollar Pushes Higher Ahead of Economically-Eventful Week

The dollar is trading with a firmer bias ahead of a week filled with first-tier economic events, and after Friday’s forecast-crushing US jobs number triggered a pop in Treasury yields. Both the pound and euro are starting the week on the back foot, weakened by expectations of earlier rate cuts from the Bank of England and European Central Bank, while the Japanese yen remains hemmed in by short sellers on one side and the threat of intervention on the other. Global oil benchmarks are losing altitude after Israel said it would withdraw some troops from Gaza, reducing perceived geopolitical risk...

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