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CNY

15 May 2025

Markets Retreat on Signs of Consumer Strain

The dollar is retreating as optimism surrounding the weekend’s trade deal continues to diminish and US consumers show signs of exhaustion, leaving investors to contemplate longer-term risks to the American economy. Treasury yields are moving higher, equity indices are indicating a modest softening in today’s session, and most majors – excluding the Canadian and Australian dollars – are up against the greenback. Oil prices are trading lower after President Trump said the US is close to reaching a deal with Tehran that would lift sanctions on its energy exports in exchange for a commitment to halt Iran’s nuclear weapons development....

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14 May 2025

‘Mar A Lago Accord’ Fears Unnerve Dollar Bulls

The dollar is extending its losses this morning, following reports that the United States and South Korea held talks on Seoul’s foreign exchange policies in early May – a development that may signal a shift in Washington’s focus from trade imbalances to currency concerns. On a trade-weighted basis, the greenback has fallen more than a full percentage point against its peers in the euro area, United Kingdom, and Japan this week, bringing its year-to-date slump to more than 6 percent. The Korean won leapt higher along with many of its unpegged Asian counterparts after Bloomberg and Reuters cited sources saying...

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12 May 2025

US-China Trade Ceasefire Boosts Global Asset Prices

A palpable sense of relief is washing over global markets after the US and China agreed to temporarily cut most tariffs on each other’s goods ahead of further trade negotiations. North American equity futures are setting up for a circa-3-percent rally at the open, Treasury yields are inching higher, and both global oil benchmarks are climbing. In currency markets, the dollar is trading near a one-month high against its major counterparts, and the safe-haven Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and euro are all slumping in relative terms. Under an agreement reached in Geneva over the weekend, US tariffs on Chinese goods...

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11 May 2025

Words vs actions

• Positive talks. Constructive talks between US/China over the weekend. But a deal may take some time. This may temper the markets excitement.• Market trends. Equity futures have opened positively. USD index a little firmer. AUD & NZD ticked up thanks to relative strength on cross-rates.• Event Radar. In AU the monthly jobs report is out (Thurs). In the US, CPI, retail sales, import prices due this week. Tariff impacts will be looked for. Global Trends Markets consolidated at the end of last week with limited economic data released and with participants lasering in on the weekend meeting between US...

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08 May 2025

The art of the deal

• Tariff news. US/UK trade deal ‘framework’ unveiled. Baseline 10% tariff remains. Many details still to be worked out. US/China talks this weekend.• Upbeat markets. Equities rose as did bond yields. USD claws back more lost ground. NZD & AUD drift lower. AUD outperforms NZD, JPY & EUR.• Upcoming events. China trade data released today. Several US Fed members also due to speak. Will the USD’s recovery extend? Global Trends US trade developments remain in the spotlight. After signaling that an announcement was in the pipeline yesterday the US unveiled a ‘framework’ for a deal with the UK. A positive...

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