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Nvidia Earnings Top Estimates, Markets Surge

Risk appetite is rebounding across the financial markets this morning after artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia’s earnings results exceeded astonishingly-high investor expectations. Sales more than tripled in the company’s fiscal fourth quarter, and are projected to do so again in the first quarter of 2024, with President Jensen Huang noting that “Demand is surging worldwide across companies, industries, and nations”. Equity markets are on a tear, with Nasdaq futures pointing to a 2-percent gap higher at the open, while the S&P 500 sets up for a 1-percent gain. Treasury yields are headed lower, and the dollar is declining, particularly against high-beta...

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AUD recovery continues

• US markets. US equities lost ground, while global trends exerted pressure on US yields. USD generally softer with the AUD’s grind up extending.• Yields fall. Lower Canadian inflation, ‘dovish’ BoE comments, & a cut to China’s 5yr lending rate weighed on global bond yields.• AU wages. Q4 wages released today. Annual growth expected to tick up. Faster wages can keep services inflation high & the RBA on a different path to its peers. A few market gyrations overnight. A pull-back in ‘big tech’ ahead of some earnings announcements dragged the US S&P500 (-0.7%) a little further from its all-time...

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Dollar Steadies As Rate Cut Consensus Falters

Markets look set for a consolidative session as North American traders return to their desks after a long weekend. Equity futures are pointing to a modestly-negative open, ten-year Treasuries are yielding 4.27 percent, slightly below Friday’s close, and most major currency pairs are settling into ranges established earlier in the month.  The dollar is up almost 2.5 percent on a year-to-date basis after last week’s higher-than-expected consumer and producer price releases triggered a crisis of confidence among investors who had been betting on an imminent and inexorable easing cycle from the Federal Reserve. Overnight index swaps are pointing to 90...

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Hold the line

• Holiday trade. Minimal moves with the US on holiday. European equities consolidated, while the major currencies remained range bound.• USD trends. ECB wage indicator & Canadian CPI tonight. US Fed commentary in focus later this week with markets now pricing in little chance of a March cut.• AUD drivers. February minutes released today & wage data due tomorrow. Signals from China suggest spending was positive during Lunar New Year. With the US closed for Presidents Day and newsflow limited there were minimal market moves overnight. European equities consolidated with the EuroStoxx600 (+0.2%) making its way up towards its January...

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Fed speak on this weeks radar

• Diverging markets. US yields rose & the S&P500 dipped after US producer prices exceeded expectations. However the USD eased. AUD at ~$0.6530.• Holiday data. High frequency data & reports suggest Chinese spending & travel exceeded pre-COVID run-rates. Is the tide finally turning?• Event radar. Locally, Q4 wages is due (Weds). US Fed commentary in focus with several members speaking later in the week. Eurozone PMIs released (Thurs). Markets consolidated on Friday night. In contrast to the Japanese Nikkei which touched another multi-decade high US equities unwound the modest gains from the previous day (S&P500 -0.5%) with higher bond yields...

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