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EUR

07 Feb 2025

Positive Jobs Reports Bolster Risk Appetite

The US job creation engine slowed in January, but revisions to November and December numbers illustrated continued strength in labour markets, helping keep the Federal Reserve firmly sidelined. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, just 143,000 jobs were added in the month—undershooting the 175,000-position consensus forecast—but December’s headline print was revised higher to 307,000 from the 256,000 originally estimated, and November’s number jumped to 261,000 from 212,000, lifting the three-month average to 237,000. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1 percent, and average hourly earnings climbed 0.5 percent month-over-month, accelerating from the pace set in the...

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06 Feb 2025

US jobs report in focus

• Holding pattern. Modest moves in most markets overnight. JPY’s upswing extends. AUD range bound just above its 1-month average.• UK rates. BoE cut interest rates by 25bps. 2 members voted for a larger move. More easing expected over time. AUD/GBP supported overnight.• US jobs. US employment report in focus tonight. Signs the US labour market is cooling could revive US Fed rate cut bets & drag on the USD. Global Trends A relative sense of calm in most markets overnight with only a few macro announcements, no fresh news regarding US trade tariffs, and the US jobs report due...

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06 Feb 2025

Markets Stabilise as Policy Risks Recede

Financial markets are overcoming post-traumatic stress syndrome three days after Donald Trump started—and then temporarily paused—a potentially-catastrophic trade war with Canada and Mexico. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are inching lower and major equity bourses are headed for a stronger open after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called tariffs a “means to an end,” and said the new administration is focused on bringing down interest rates. The dollar is holding firm against its rivals. The number of Americans submitting initial applications for unemployment benefits rose incrementally to 219,000 in the week ended February 1, and continuing claims fell slightly in the prior...

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05 Feb 2025

No new tariff news is good news

• Market swings. US equities ticked up while bond yields fell. This weighed on the USD. AUD & NZD continue to recover lost ground.• Data flow. US ADP employment improved but the services ISM declined. Non-farm payrolls released on Friday night. BoE rate cut expected tonight.• Stronger JPY. Wages in Japan accelerated. More BoJ rate hikes anticipated. This is JPY supportive. We see more AUD/JPY downside over medium-term. Global Trends In the absence of new US tariff related developments there has been a mixed performance across markets overnight. US equities swung around but on net ended the session in positive...

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04 Feb 2025

Will the rebound in sentiment last?

• Positive vibes. Yesterday’s news tariffs on Mexico & Canada have been delayed boosted risk sentiment & weighed on the USD. But will it last?• Tariff risks. China announced countermeasures. Risk of the US imposing tariffs on EU remains. More headline-driven volatility likely over period ahead.• AUD & NZD. AUD bounced above its 1-month average. NZD also rebounded, but higher NZ unemployment reinforces RBNZ rate cut expectations. Global Trends Yesterdays news that the proposed US tariffs on Mexico and Canada would be delayed by a month improved the market mood. Indeed, even news out of China that it will impose...

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