EUR

Good morning. The dollar is holding near a one-year high and Treasury yields are climbing even as oil prices fall another 2%, with investors returning from the holiday weekend to find that hawkish signals from last week’s Federal Reserve meeting are overwhelming the terms-of-trade effects that had dominated currency markets since the war began. With rate differentials having tilted sharply in the dollar’s favour since newly-installed Fed chair Kevin Warsh let the hawks control the early narrative, most major currencies—including the euro, pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar—are down roughly 1.5% against the greenback in the past five...

Good morning. Oil prices are nearing pre-war levels as supertankers begin moving through the Strait of Hormuz, and the dollar is trading near a one-year high after the Federal Reserve delivered a “hawkish hold” in Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair. Both of the major global crude benchmarks are trading just above levels reached in the immediate aftermath of US and Israeli strikes on Iran in early March. Brent is changing hands at $78 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $75 after President Donald Trump* and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a 14-point memorandum extending April’s ceasefire by another...

Good morning. The dollar is flat, Treasury yields are edging lower across the curve, and oil prices continue to decline as traders await details of the US-Iran peace deal ahead of its signing on Friday and brace for turbulence around tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision. Brent crude is changing hands at $81 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $78, with both benchmarks down nearly 11% this month. Currency market reaction to the weekend’s ceasefire agreement has been surprisingly muted, with most major pairs moving less than a third of a percent since the news broke. To some extent, this reflects...