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EUR

Holding on, but risks remain

• Consolidation. Oil a little lower due to positive rhetoric. US equities tread water. USD a bit firmer. NZD a relative outperformer. AUD drifts a fraction lower.• Data pulse. Global PMIs out today. AU jobs report due Thursday. RBA Gov. Bullock acknowledges higher unemployment needed to ease inflation. Global Trends With news flow limited, financial market movements were modest overnight. Some positive vibes about the state of play in the Middle East caused oil prices to dip a little with brent crude slipping back to ~US$98.50/brl. President Trump indicated that US officials met with Iran’s delegation at the UN for...

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Currency markets calm as optimism returns

Good morning. The dollar is edging lower as tensions in the Middle East show signs of easing and technology shares advance on a renewed wave of optimism. Brent is trading below $99 a barrel — down from $108 a week ago — after Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline and Reuters reported that Iran is willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if America lifts its blockade. Valuations are climbing across the artificial intelligence sector after Meta’s new assistant, Muse, received positive reviews and a pickup in users, helping justify massive capital expenditures from the major hyperscalers....

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Markets stabilise as economic data cadence slows

Good morning. Stress is easing across the currency markets this morning as energy prices pull back, Treasury yields dip, and equity futures advance. The euro is holding steady even after Germany’s biggest conservative party suffered some of its worst state election results since 1949. Preliminary results show the Christian Democratic Union led by chancellor Friedrich Merz winning just 4.9% of the vote in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern—against 38.3% for the hard-right Alternative für Deutschland—and 18.8% of the vote in Berlin, with the far-left Die Linke taking 25.7%. Merz’s leadership was not on the ballots, but the setback will make his reform agenda more...

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Hawks in the Fed nest

• Fed hike. A ‘hawkish’ US Fed rate rise. Forecasts point to more ‘tightening’ later this year. US equities dip. USD firmer. AUD & NZD remain on the backfoot.• Macro pulse. US retail sales stronger than expected. US Fed has more work to do. BoE tonight & BoJ tomorrow. RBA predicted to hike rates later this month. Global Trends Economic events in the US were in focus overnight with a strong retail sales report compounded by a ‘hawkish’ interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. US retail sales grew 1.2% in August, a positive signal about broader macro momentum given...

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Tension rises ahead of Fed decision

Good morning, and happy Federal Reserve Day to all who observe. The dollar is holding firm, with investors and economists overwhelmingly convinced the Fed will raise rates for the first time in more than three years, amid a surge in global energy prices and a jump in long-term yields. Oil remains above $100 a barrel after Saudi Arabia, after coming under sustained attack from Iran and its allies, suspended loading at its Yanbu port and cancelled some shipments to Europe. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding just below 5%, and equity futures are edging higher ahead of the North American open....

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