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Market Musing, Asia Pacific

Australia GDP: growth vs levels

The dated Q2 Australian GDP confirmed what we should have already known. The growth pulse is subdued with higher interest rates and cost of living squeeze working to constrain consumer spending, construction, and broader business investment. The Australian economy expanded by just 0.2% in Q2, lowering the annual run-rate to a meagre 1%pa (chart 1). Outside of COVID this is the slowest annual pace since the early-1990’s recession with household consumption particularly weak despite the ongoing drawdown of COVID-era ‘excess savings’ (chart 2). Indeed, slicing and dicing the data further shows that growth across the private sector has stalled with...

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Don’t fight the Fed

Don’t fight the US Federal Reserve. The old market saying is back with a vengeance following Chair Powell’s explicit ‘dovish’ pivot in his latest speech at 2024 Jackson Hole Symposium. After being laser focused on upside inflation worries over the past few years the pendulum has clearly swung to the other part of the Fed’s ‘dual mandate’ with downside risks to employment now front of mind. Importantly, in the words of Chair Powell “the time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data,...

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AUD/NZD – RBNZ joins the rate cut club

Another one bites the dust with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today joining the likes of the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England in kick starting its monetary policy easing cycle. The RBNZ delivered a 25bp reduction, lowering the official cash rate to 5.25%. The RBNZ went hard and early during the interest rate hiking phase, and the negative impacts from 15-months of very ‘restrictive’ settings are being felt across the NZ economy. The previously reluctant RBNZ has (finally) seen the light, something we believed was a matter of time (see Market Musings:...

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CPI washes away RBA rate hike prospects

A surprise in the Q2 AU CPI, though for the first time in a few months it looks a bit more favourable for indebted households and businesses. While headline CPI nudged up inline with consensus forecasts to 3.8%pa, the important core inflation measure (i.e. the trimmed mean) was a touch softer than built up expectations. Core inflation rose 0.8% in Q2 with the annual rate slipping to 3.9%pa (chart 1). We think this should see the RBA hold fire and keep interest rates steady at its 6 August meeting. The unwind in Australian interest rate expectations, and paring back of...

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AUD/NZD – Diverging macro fundamentals

No change in policy from the RBNZ at today’s meeting, as widely expected. And given this was an interim review meeting, not a full forecast update, there was another fairly short post meeting statement. That said, we think were noteworthy tweaks in the RBNZ’s tone and guidance. After leading the central bank charge during the global tightening phase and maintaining a ‘hawkish’ bias for some time, the RBNZ has started to soften its message as the harsher NZ economic reality appears to be hitting home. This is no surprise to us as we never bought into the RBNZ’s surprisingly ‘hawkish’...

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