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Hold the line

• Holiday trade. Minimal moves with the US on holiday. European equities consolidated, while the major currencies remained range bound.• USD trends. ECB wage indicator & Canadian CPI tonight. US Fed commentary in focus later this week with markets now pricing in little chance of a March cut.• AUD drivers. February minutes released today & wage data due tomorrow. Signals from China suggest spending was positive during Lunar New Year. With the US closed for Presidents Day and newsflow limited there were minimal market moves overnight. European equities consolidated with the EuroStoxx600 (+0.2%) making its way up towards its January...

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Bad news is good news

• Market reversal. The unwind of this week’s US inflation driven moves has continued. Equities higher, US yields eased a bit, & the USD lost ground.• Sentiment vs reality. The positive tone has come through despite sluggish global data. Japan & the UK entered recession, US retail sales declined.• AU jobs. The jobs report underwhelmed, but technical factors point to an unwind next month. AUD has clawed its way back to where it started the week. Investors have been in a ‘bad economic news is good for markets’ frame of mind. The unwind of the US inflation driven bout of...

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Sentiment improves

• Sentiment improved overnight. US equities rose, bond yields dipped, & the AUD outperformed. UK inflation failed to re-accelerate.• The Fed’s Goolsbee also tempered the markets negative vibes by keeping the door open to a policy re-calibration later this year.• Australian labour force data due today. Analysts are looking for jobs to rebound after the outsized December drop. Markets settled down overnight with the burst of risk aversion following the hotter than expected US inflation data partially unwinding. US and European equities rose with the tech-sector outperforming (NASDAQ +0.9%, S&P500 +0.5%), while bond yields dipped. The US 2yr rate declined...

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US inflation jolts markets

• US inflation. A positive US inflation surprise rattled markets. US bond yields jumped up, equities fell, & the USD strengthened. AUD back down near ~$0.6450.• Rate pricing. Odds of a Fed rate cut in March or May have tumbled. Markets are now (finally) factoring in a similar path forward to the Fed’s ‘dot plot’.• AU events. The next AUD centric event is tomorrows labour force report. Will employment rebound from its December slump or will the cracks widen? The latest read on US inflation rattled markets overnight. US CPI positively surprised pretty much all the analysts surveyed with headline...

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Will US inflation slow further?

• Quiet start. Subdued markets with modest moves in equities, bond yields, & the major currencies. Firmer metals prices help the AUD a little.• US inflation. January US CPI due tonight. Leading indicators point to US inflation continuing to slow. Will this see the USD lose ground?• AUD crosses. Pairs like AUD/GBP, AUD/EUR & AUD/NZD look to be trading too low compared to levels implied by yield differentials and/or other fundamentals. It has been a quiet start to the week, unsurprising given the limited news flow and with several Asian markets closed for the Lunar New Year. In contrast to...

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