NZD

• Upbeat tone. Softer US inflation, solid PMIs & positive US/China trade talks support risk sentiment. Equities rose. AUD & NZD strengthen.• US Fed. Upside US inflation risks fading while downside jobs risks rising. US Fed looks set to cut rates this week & should keep door open to more.• AU inflation. Gov. Bullock speaks tonight, Q3 CPI due Weds. Monthly data points to uptick in Q3 inflation. RBA rate cut pricing may be pared back. Global Trends A combination of factors underpinned risk sentiment at the end of last week and in this morning’s early Asian trade. US and...

• Mixed signals. Sanctions on Russian producers boosted oil prices. Limited spillover into other markets. Equities rose. AUD outperformed overnight.• US inflation. US CPI due tonight. US government shutdown delayed it. Diverging ‘goods’ & ‘services’ price trends at play. Data may generate USD vol. Global Trends Geopolitical developments generated a little volatility across a few markets overnight, though risk assets are generally firmer. US sanctions on some of Russia’s largest oil producers due to the lack of commitment to end the Ukraine war saw oil prices rise ~5%. That said, at ~$66/brl brent crude is still tracking below its 1-year...

• Push-pull. Pockets of vol. in some asset classes. US equities eased, bond yields consolidated & USD tread water. AUD & NZD held steady.• US CPI. US Gov. shutdown ongoing. But US CPI will be released Friday night. Diverging trends between ‘goods’ & ‘services’ prices. USD vol. likely.• AU macro. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks tomorrow. Q3 CPI due next week. Firmer inflation pressures may temper enthusiasm about RBA rate cuts. Global Trends There were pockets of volatility across some asset classes overnight on the back of some news headlines. But on net the moves were rather modest. Reports the Trump...

• Market swings. A few bursts of volatility the past few weeks. Sentiment was positive overnight with the S&P500 rising & AUD clawing back lost ground.• US data. US Government Shutdown remains in place. But given its importance the delayed US CPI report will be released this week (Fri night AEDT).• RBA pricing. Uptick in AU unemployment has seen markets price in a greater chance of another RBA cut. Q3 CPI due next week. This may temper views. Global Trends There have been a few bursts of volatility over the past week or so stemming from a mix of renewed...