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JPY

More talk than action

• Consolidation. Quiet end to last week. US S&P500 hit another record. Bond yields ticked up while the USD remained range bound.• China stimulus. More positive rhetoric but no specifics about the next wave of fiscal stimulus. But this looks to be a matter of when, not if.• Event radar. Locally, jobs figures are due (Thurs). Offshore, ECB meets, while US retail sales, NZ CPI, UK CPI, & China GDP are released this week. It was a rather subdued end to last week across markets. European and US equities ticked up with the S&P500 (+0.6%) touching yet another record high...

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Expectations matter

• Partial reversal. US equities consolidated, bond yields eased, & base metal prices rose. After a negative run AUD & NZD a bit firmer.• US inflation. Headline & core CPI a touch higher than predicted. Key underlying trends still point to a series of US Fed rate cuts over the next year.• Event radar. China holds a fiscal policy briefing tomorrow. US PPI tonight. Next week AU jobs, US retail sales, ECB meeting, & China GDP are due. A modest reversal of fortunes across markets overnight despite the latest US CPI inflation reading coming in a touch higher than predicted....

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Currencies Stall Ahead of Inflation Print

Currency markets are losing momentum as investors brace for this morning’s September consumer price index numbers out of the United States. The dollar is holding steady after racking up an eight-day winning streak, and most of its rivals remain stuck within well-contained trading ranges as questions around the Federal Reserve’s easing trajectory continue to dominate price action. With the European Central Bank now expected to slightly outpace its US equivalent in cutting rates this year, the euro is plumbing lows last seen in mid-August, and the British pound is climbing in the opposite direction on bets that the Bank of...

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US inflation & the USD

• Mixed fortunes. Equities in China tumbled, while the US S&P500 hit a record. US bond yields rose, supporting the USD. AUD lost ground.• RBNZ cuts. RBNZ slashed rates by 50bps. The harsher NZ economic climate points to more cuts. Diverging trends point to a higher AUD/NZD.• US CPI. US inflation in focus. Headline CPI projected to slow, while core CPI forecast to hold steady. US yields & USD will be sensitive to the data. A mixed performance across global markets over the past 24hrs. After its stellar run equities in China tumbled (CSI300 -7%) because of ongoing uncertainty regarding...

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Markets Steady As Payrolls Tumult Subsides

The dollar is consolidating near a seven-week high against its major counterparts as yield differentials normalise and safe-haven demand fades. Treasury yields are moving in opposing directions across the curve, with the two-year slipping lower even as the ten-year inches higher, and North American equity futures are positioned for a modest recovery at the open. Currency markets are seeing mixed price action after Chinese authorities disappointed investors with a smaller-than-expected stimulus announcement: the Canadian dollar and other risk-sensitive units are grinding lower, while the pound, euro, and Japanese yen are all sitting on small gains after coming under sustained selling...

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