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JPY

02 Jun 2026

Iran headlines dominate currency market price action

Treasury yields and the dollar are retreating from yesterday’s highs after Hezbollah and Israel agreed to temporarily halt cross-border fighting, giving Iranian officials cause to return to the bargaining table. Oil prices had posted their sharpest one-day surge in a month after Tehran said it was abandoning talks amid an intensifying Israeli assault on Lebanon, reviving supply fears that had been dormant for weeks. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate are down roughly 1.3% this morning, ten-year Treasury yields have eased back to 4.42%, and the trade-weighted dollar is edging lower as traders unwind the defensive positioning built up during...

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01 Jun 2026

Middle East uncertainty continues

• Headline noise. Conflicting Middle East news generated a few bursts of volatility. US bond yields & USD ticked up. NZD & AUD lost a bit of ground.• Macro events. Eurozone CPI tonight. US non-farm payrolls due later this week. Australian Q1 GDP out on Wednesday. RBA Gov. Bullock also speaks (Thurs). Global Trends Middle East-related headlines knocked markets around a little overnight. Uncertainty about a durable peace deal remains and skirmishes between opposing forces continued over the weekend. Conflicting comments generated a few intra-session bursts of volatility yesterday. On the one hand, Iranian media reported the country would suspend...

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27 May 2026

Markets advance incrementally on Mideast optimism

Good morning. Oil prices and Treasury yields are easing as markets grow more confident that a deal between America and Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, despite a series of military actions in recent days. The Strait, through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes, has been closed for almost three months. Brent crude is trading for nearly $96 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $90, both sharply lower than a week ago. Equity futures are pointing to a modest advance at the open, and the dollar is little changed, with the Canadian dollar, sterling, euro...

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26 May 2026

Middle East uncertainties keep markets guessing

Good morning. Oil prices are climbing and the dollar is trimming its losses against major peers as hopes for a near-term diplomatic resolution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz fade amid a fresh round of military escalation in the region. The US military struck targets in southern Iran and sank two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps vessels last night in what American officials described as defensive operations, while Israel simultaneously launched air strikes against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The reversal follows a long weekend that had brought a string of optimistic headlines, easing pressure across asset classes. President Trump announced on...

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21 May 2026

Unemployment & the RBA

• Market swings. Conflicting US/Iran reports generated volatility. US equities a bit higher. USD whipped around. Local/offshore factors push/pulled the AUD.• AU jobs. Weak jobs report in April. Employment fell. Unemployment at multi-year high. RBA rate hike expectations trimmed. Domestic headwinds growing. Global Trends The ‘will they, won’t they’ situation regarding a US/Iran peace deal continues to generate bursts of market volatility. Risk sentiment, and bellwether indicators like oil prices, swung around overnight on the back of conflicting reports. One the one hand the latest 14-point framework was reported by Iranian media as having “narrowed the gap” and US Secretary...

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