JPY

• Market jitters. Renewed US/Iran tensions pushed up oil prices. Long end bond yields rose again & equities slipped back. AUD & NZD a bit weaker.• Macro pulse. RBNZ expected to raise rates today. Will its guidance point to more moves? Q2 AU GDP predicted to show sluggish growth. Global Trends Markets have been jittery over the past few sessions with a combination of economic and geopolitical news in the driver’s seat. Macro wise, markets have been absorbing the ‘hawkish’ message delivered by new Fed Chair Warsh at his speech at the end of last week. Chair Warsh raised a...

• US data. Firmer US activity & inflation data supported bond yields. USD a bit firmer against most currencies. AUD bucks the trend because of AU CPI.• AU pulse. July inflation higher than predicted. Odds of another RBA hike by year-end lift. Late-Sep meeting ‘live’. But has the AUD already factored it in? Global Trends A bit of a reversal in fortunes overnight across some markets overnight with US equities a touch softer (NASDAQ -0.1%), bond yields rising a little (US rates rose ~2-4bps across the curve), oil nudging up (brent crude +0.5% to US$87.45/brl), and the USD firmer against...

• Positive vibes. Improved sentiment about the US/Iran conflict has weighed on oil prices. Bond yields lower, equities higher. AUD & NZD rose overnight.• Data trends. Australian monthly CPI out today. US PCE deflator due tonight. Signs of moderating inflation may generate AUD & USD volatility. Global Trends Markets were in a slightly better mood overnight with bonds and equities underpinned by a dip in oil. The tech-centric NASDAQ (+0.7%) outperformed the broader S&P500 (+0.3%), while US bond yields shed ~6-7bps across the curve. The US 10yr rate (now ~4.63%) has slipped towards the bottom of its 1-month range, however...