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SGD

USD revival

• Stronger USD. A positive US jobs report has seen US rate expectations reprice higher, supporting the USD. AUD has fallen to mid-September levels.• China reopening. Financial markets in mainland China reopen today after a holiday. This will be in focus, as will a briefing by its economic planners.• Local events. Consumer confidence, business conditions, RBA meeting minutes, & speech by RBA Dep. Governor Hauser also on the radar. Last Friday’s stronger than anticipated monthly US jobs report generated a market jolt. The robust job creation (non-farm payrolls rose 254,000 in August), positive revisions to history, dip in the unemployment...

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Middle East tensions rock the boat

• Geopolitics. Developments in the Middle East dampened sentiment. Equities & bond yields declined. USD a little firmer. AUD modestly lower.• Oil & vol. Brent crude prices increased, but now look to be tracking inline with fundamentals. Measures of volatility also not showing much stress.• NZD weaker. NZD fell, AUD/NZD rose. NZIER Survey showed price pressures are cooling fast raising the odds the RBNZ cuts rates by 50bps. Geopolitics trumped economics overnight with escalating tensions in the Middle East generating a bout of risk aversion. Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel, a few hours after the US had...

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Two steps forward, one step back

• Shaky sentiment. After a strong run equities slipped overnight. Bond yields rose & the USD clawed back ground. AUD & NZD dipped.• AU CPI. Monthly headline CPI indicator decelerated as government measures washed through. But progress on core/services inflation is more gradual.• Event radar. Several US Fed members speak tonight. US jobless claims & durable goods released. Locally, RBA’s FSR & job vacancies are due. After a strong run the positive risk sentiment that has washed through markets reversed course slightly over the past 24hrs. There has been little top-tier economic data released globally, and although geopolitical tensions in...

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Will the RBA hold the line?

• Upbeat tone. Last weeks larger than expected rate cut by the US Fed continues to wash through markets. US PCE deflator in focus this week.• Global PMIs. Softer Eurozone PMIs weighed a bit on the EUR. US PMIs holding up. Cyclical currencies like the NZD & AUD remain firm.• RBA today. In contrast to its peers the RBA is expected to keep rates on hold today. Divergence between the RBA & others is underpinning the AUD. The implications of last week’s bigger than expected 50bp rate cut by the US Federal Reserve continues to be digested by markets. The...

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Will US payrolls rebound?

• Mixed signals. US equities rose on Friday. Bond yields nudged up. US holiday tonight but there is plenty of important data on the horizon.• USD bounce. Higher US yields generated a bit of USD support. AUD eased. Markets still look to be pricing in too much US Fed easing, in our view.• Event radar. Locally, Q2 GDP & a speech by RBA Gov. Bullock in focus. Offshore, US jobs data due with non-farm payrolls rounding out the week. US equities rose on Friday with the S&P500 (+1%) now fractionally under its record high. The early-August panic volatility has faded...

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