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Mixed messages

• Mixed markets. S&P500 & gold hit record highs. Bond yields slipped back, while the USD index consolidated. AUD gave back a bit of ground.• US data. US retail sales better than expected in June. But the underlying trend still shows sluggish momentum. Fed rate cuts priced in from September.• NZ CPI. NZ headline inflation slowed in Q2. The door to RBNZ rate cuts continues to open. Australian jobs report released tomorrow. Mixed performance across markets overnight. US equities continued to power ahead with the S&P500 (+0.6%) hitting another record. The S&P500 is now up ~24% compared to a year...

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Will Fed Chair Powell rattle markets?

• Quiet markets. Small market moves overnight with reaction to the French election result minimal. Bond yields consolidated. USD a touch firmer.• Fed commentary. Fed Chair Powell speaks tonight. Will he note the loosening in the jobs market & keep the door open to rate cuts later this year?• AU data. Consumer confidence & business conditions due today. Diverging macro/policy trends in Australia’s favour are AUD supportive. A quiet start to the week with the major asset markets confined to tight ranges. Reaction to the surprise result in the second round of the French parliamentary elections where the leftist alliance...

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Mixed signals

• Mixed markets. Divergence between US & European equities, while long-end bond yields & the USD gave back a little ground. AUD a touch firmer.• US macro. Fed Chair Powell noted there has been “quite a bit” of inflation progress. But more is needed. The ‘quits rate’ points to lower wages/inflation.• Data flow. Australian retail sales due today. UK election tomorrow. In the US, ADP employment, services ISM, & jobless claims released tonight. While there was a bit of divergence in equities overnight (the major European markets slipped back ~0.5% and the US S&P500 rose ~0.6% to be within striking...

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RBA’s inflation challenge

• Firmer USD. No major economic releases but bond yields & the USD rose overnight. USD/JPY around levels last traded in late-1986. AUD round trip.• AU inflation. Monthly CPI higher than anticipated. Odds of another RBA rate hike as soon as 6 August have risen. Relative trends should be AUD supportive.• Events. RBA Dep. Gov. Hauser speaks & US durable goods due. PCE deflator released Fri night. US Presidential Election debate tomorrow (Fri 11am AEST). Financial markets have livened up a bit over the past 24hrs. Although outside of Australia where yesterday’s monthly CPI data surprised and triggered a repricing...

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Watching & waiting

• Consolidation. Quiet start to the week. Easing French election risks supported European equities & the EUR. Softer USD pushed AUD a bit higher.• JPY watch. USD/JPY is around levels which previously triggered bouts of FX intervention. Verbal rhetoric by Japanese officials is starting to pick up.• Inflation pulse. US core PCE deflator (due Fri) likely to slow, while monthly AU CPI (due Weds) could re-accelerate. Diverging trends are AUD supportive. It has been a quiet start to the new week. This isn’t surprising given the bulk of the potential market moving global releases such as US durable goods orders...

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