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AUD recovery continues

• US markets. US equities lost ground, while global trends exerted pressure on US yields. USD generally softer with the AUD’s grind up extending.• Yields fall. Lower Canadian inflation, ‘dovish’ BoE comments, & a cut to China’s 5yr lending rate weighed on global bond yields.• AU wages. Q4 wages released today. Annual growth expected to tick up. Faster wages can keep services inflation high & the RBA on a different path to its peers. A few market gyrations overnight. A pull-back in ‘big tech’ ahead of some earnings announcements dragged the US S&P500 (-0.7%) a little further from its all-time...

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Hold the line

• Holiday trade. Minimal moves with the US on holiday. European equities consolidated, while the major currencies remained range bound.• USD trends. ECB wage indicator & Canadian CPI tonight. US Fed commentary in focus later this week with markets now pricing in little chance of a March cut.• AUD drivers. February minutes released today & wage data due tomorrow. Signals from China suggest spending was positive during Lunar New Year. With the US closed for Presidents Day and newsflow limited there were minimal market moves overnight. European equities consolidated with the EuroStoxx600 (+0.2%) making its way up towards its January...

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Fed speak on this weeks radar

• Diverging markets. US yields rose & the S&P500 dipped after US producer prices exceeded expectations. However the USD eased. AUD at ~$0.6530.• Holiday data. High frequency data & reports suggest Chinese spending & travel exceeded pre-COVID run-rates. Is the tide finally turning?• Event radar. Locally, Q4 wages is due (Weds). US Fed commentary in focus with several members speaking later in the week. Eurozone PMIs released (Thurs). Markets consolidated on Friday night. In contrast to the Japanese Nikkei which touched another multi-decade high US equities unwound the modest gains from the previous day (S&P500 -0.5%) with higher bond yields...

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Bad news is good news

• Market reversal. The unwind of this week’s US inflation driven moves has continued. Equities higher, US yields eased a bit, & the USD lost ground.• Sentiment vs reality. The positive tone has come through despite sluggish global data. Japan & the UK entered recession, US retail sales declined.• AU jobs. The jobs report underwhelmed, but technical factors point to an unwind next month. AUD has clawed its way back to where it started the week. Investors have been in a ‘bad economic news is good for markets’ frame of mind. The unwind of the US inflation driven bout of...

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Sentiment improves

• Sentiment improved overnight. US equities rose, bond yields dipped, & the AUD outperformed. UK inflation failed to re-accelerate.• The Fed’s Goolsbee also tempered the markets negative vibes by keeping the door open to a policy re-calibration later this year.• Australian labour force data due today. Analysts are looking for jobs to rebound after the outsized December drop. Markets settled down overnight with the burst of risk aversion following the hotter than expected US inflation data partially unwinding. US and European equities rose with the tech-sector outperforming (NASDAQ +0.9%, S&P500 +0.5%), while bond yields dipped. The US 2yr rate declined...

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