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Market Snapshot, North America

Canadian Dollar Market Snapshot: That which doesn’t kill you makes you stranger

The Canadian dollar has endured a series of consecutive blows that might reasonably have been expected to break it. The abrupt collapse of the shale boom, a worldwide pandemic, the unwinding of a generational housing bubble, and a trade war with Canada’s largest trading partner have followed one another in disorienting succession. Yet the loonie has held within a narrow range for most of the past ten years and has essentially flat-lined this year, while both implied and realised volatility are sitting close to multi-decade lows. A currency once viewed as a highly-speculative bet on commodity prices and a proxy...

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The superpeso stumbles

The peso is suddenly facing serious headwinds For much of this year, the “superpeso” lived up to its reputation. In late August, the exchange rate hit a two-year peak, and President Claudia Sheinbaum hailed it as one of the “strongest and most solid currencies in the world”. Seven weeks later, the mood has soured. The peso has fallen for six consecutive weeks, its longest losing streak since 2019, and is trading near a one-year low even as the dollar beats a hasty retreat from recent highs. That underperformance could persist in the near term, with the currency sliding further toward...

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The world’s biggest trade just flinched

If there has been one consistent message in our analysis over the past few years, it is that global portfolios have crowded—to an unhealthy degree—into a single bet: the US technology sector, and by extension the US dollar. Yesterday offered a small but telling illustration showing why that should trouble investors. Shares linked to artificial intelligence sold off. The yen and the Swiss franc rallied. And yet the dollar tumbled. That is not how a reserve currency is supposed to behave on a risk-off day. It is how a risk-sensitive currency behaves. A long period of US exceptionalism set the...

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Bought and paid for?

A few years ago three behavioural-finance researchers put a deceptively simple question* to more than 26,000 people—academic economists, ordinary households, retail investors, financial advisers and professional fund managers alike. Suppose a piece of good news about a company’s future earnings is already four weeks old. Should you expect its shares to earn higher returns from here? Most academics said no: around 70% reckoned that month-old news was already in the price, and so told you nothing about the returns to come. Almost everyone else said yes—including about three-quarters of retail investors, two-thirds of financial advisers and, more startling, over half...

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The beautifully distracting game

Of all the rituals of finance most ripe for disruption by artificial intelligence, few are as deserving as the quadrennial spectacle of sell-side World Cup analysis. Like clockwork, the world’s biggest banks deploy teams of economists and quants to divine the tournament’s champion and tally the macroeconomic spoils. Thousands of pages and reams of data visualisations later*, they reach a conclusion a chatbot could have supplied for free: host the tournament, or field a side in the final rounds, and enjoy a modest, fleeting bump to gross domestic product as fans throng the bars. No bank reliably picks the winner;...

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