FX & Y, North America

American trade imbalances aren’t going away, just moving geographically By the time Donald Trump entered the White House in 2017, faith in free trade among America’s elite had already collapsed. Antipathy to globalisation was the closest thing Washington had to consensus, and the $552-billion deficit the United States ran that year was seen as evidence of national surrender. In the years since, presidents of both parties have wielded tariffs against adversaries and allies alike, raised regulatory barriers, and launched vast reshoring efforts aimed at closing trade imbalances—leading many pundits to declare the age of globalisation over. Trade flows haven’t got...

America produces more crude than anyone. That does not spare it—or the dollar—the consequences of an oil shock. A comforting narrative has taken hold in Washington. The shale revolution, which transformed America into the world’s largest producer of crude oil, is supposed to have insulated the country from the geopolitical convulsions that have long roiled energy markets. Since the war in Iran was launched at the end of February, Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested that higher prices are to America’s benefit, gesturing at the tankers loading up in American harbours as proof of the economic windfall. In foreign-exchange markets, the...