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EUR

19 May 2026

Markets turn cautious as Iran uncertainties remain

Good morning. Oil prices are edging lower and the dollar is strengthening after President Trump said he had suspended a planned bombardment of Iran, leaving market hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz effectively in limbo. “We were getting ready to do a very major attack tomorrow, and I put it off for a little while, hopefully maybe forever, but possibly for a little while, because we’ve had very big discussions with Iran, and we’ll see what they amount to,” Trump said. In a social media post earlier in the day, he told the US military to be...

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17 May 2026

Risk wobbles weigh on the AUD

• Inflation worries. Higher oil prices & central bank rethink push up bond yields. Equities dipped on Friday. USD firmer. AUD & NZD fall back.• Macro pulse. Concerns about the global economy & inflation remain. China data due today. Monthly Australian jobs report released later this week. Global Trends A few wobbles across cyclical assets at the end of last week with European and US equities losing ground, industrial metals prices falling, and the USD strengthening on Friday. The US S&P500 shed ~1.2%, its largest one-day slide since late-March. Copper (-4.5%) and iron ore (-1.3%) also went backwards. By contrast,...

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14 May 2026

US Fed shifting course?

• US data. Solid US retail sales underpinned sentiment. Upshift in US interest rate expectations & weaker GBP boosted the USD. AUD slipped back.• Macro pulse. Markets toying with the idea the US Fed may hike interest rates. More US/Iran related volatility possible. China data batch due Monday. Global Trends A mixed performance across asset classes overnight, though there was a hint of US outperformance on the back of positive US economic data. US consumer spending (the engine room of the economy) remains resilient in the face of higher gasoline prices with retail sales growing 0.5% in April after a...

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14 May 2026

Trading ranges compress as newsflow slows

Good morning. Price action in currency markets is slowing to a crawl and the dollar is consolidating yesterday’s gains as traders keep their powder dry amid a lack of clear directional catalysts. Brent crude futures are holding near $106 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate is flirting with $102 after India said one of its vessels had come under attack off the coast of Oman and multiple sources reported an Iranian seizure of a ship anchored off the United Arab Emirates. Equity indices are advancing on reports that the US will permit Nvidia to sell its second-most advanced artificial intelligence...

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13 May 2026

Oil prices resume climb, inflation fears stalk global bond markets

Good morning. Oil prices are holding yesterday’s gains and the dollar is advancing on reports suggesting that the Trump administration is considering rebranding* its war with Iran as “Operation Sledgehammer” should Tehran reject US demands and the current ceasefire collapse. According to multiple sources, President Trump is weighing a resumption of major combat operations after declaring an end to “Operation Epic Fury” when a ceasefire took effect in early April, with the expectation that a new designation would reset the 60-day legal clock requiring congressional authorisation for hostilities. Intelligence assessments publicised by the New York Times** suggest Iran retains roughly...

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