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14 Jul 2026

Underlying US inflation decelerates sharply, taking a July rate hike off the table

Underlying consumer price growth turned negative in the United States last month, smashing the case for an imminent rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and adding to the downward pressure building against the dollar. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—fell -0.02% in month-over-month terms in June, slowing sharply from the 0.2% pace set a month earlier. This undershot all of the estimates provided by economists ahead of the release, and lowered the annual increase in prices to 2.6% from 2.9% previously. Softness was...

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14 Jul 2026

Dollar retreats as traders batten the hatches ahead of inflation print

Good morning. Oil prices are up nearly 15% from Friday’s close and the dollar is retreating after an escalation between Washington and Tehran led to a collapse in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, again threatening global energy supplies. After a series of Iranian attacks on shipping and military skirmishes, President Trump yesterday reinstated a naval blockade on Iran, declaring the United States would become the Strait’s “guardian” and that it “will remain open, with or without Iran”. He also announced a 20% fee on all cargo transiting the waterway*—a levy that would materially raise the cost of a barrel...

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13 Jul 2026

Sentiment sours

• Risk wobbles. Renewed US/Iran tensions dampen risk sentiment. Oil prices jump, US equities dip, & USD firmer. AUD slips back.• US data flow. Fed’s Waller ‘hawkish’. Markets pricing in a Q3 Fed rate hike. US CPI out tonight. New US Fed Chair Warsh also speaks. USD vol. likely. Global Trends A few renewed geopolitical and macro related wobbles across markets at the start of the new week. US equities lost altitude (S&P500 -0.8%), with the tech-sector underperforming (NASDAQ -1.6%), while US bond yields rose ~6-7bps across the curve and oil prices jumped up (Brent Crude +9.5% to ~US$83.30/brl, a...

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10 Jul 2026

Canadian dollar inches higher after jobs number beats expectations

The Canadian economy again generated more jobs than anticipated last month, further lowering the likelihood of an economic downturn and allowing policymakers at the Bank of Canada to remain squarely focused on inflation risks. According to an update just published by Statistics Canada, 18,200 new positions were added in June, slowing from 87,800 in the prior month while overshooting the 10,000-job consensus forecast. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 6.5% from 6.6% previously, also beating expectations. Most of the total—17,500 positions—were added in part time roles, but there was little sign of a pullback after the 154,000-job gain in full-time...

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09 Jul 2026

Bought and paid for?

A few years ago three behavioural-finance researchers put a deceptively simple question* to more than 26,000 people—academic economists, ordinary households, retail investors, financial advisers and professional fund managers alike. Suppose a piece of good news about a company’s future earnings is already four weeks old. Should you expect its shares to earn higher returns from here? Most academics said no: around 70% reckoned that month-old news was already in the price, and so told you nothing about the returns to come. Almost everyone else said yes—including about three-quarters of retail investors, two-thirds of financial advisers and, more startling, over half...

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