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04 Aug 2026

Will they, won’t they?

• Upbeat vibes. Positive US/Iran rhetoric. Oil prices lower, US equities higher. USD on backfoot. Cyclical currencies like AUD & NZD outperform.• Data pulse. US ADP employment & services ISM due tonight. US jobs report out later this week. Potential for renewed bursts of market volatility. Global Trends The more upbeat risk sentiment that came through at the end of July have continued over the past few sessions. US equities rose overnight with the ~1.8% gain in the S&P500 overshadowed by a ~2.6% lift in the tech-focused NASDAQ, its first back-to-back gain of 2% or more since April 2025. A...

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04 Aug 2026

Dollar struggles to climb off three-week low as geopolitical and credibility concerns weigh

Good morning. Oil benchmarks are recouping some of yesterday’s losses and the dollar is advancing narrowly, with long-end Treasury yields creeping up and equity futures pointing to modest gains at the open. The euro, pound and Canadian dollar are also edging higher in rangebound trading. The geopolitical picture remains unclear. President Trump yesterday claimed talks with Tehran were under way, warning of a “last chance” to sign a deal, but Iran’s foreign ministry said no negotiations were taking place and no meetings were scheduled. “I want to give them every last chance before decapitation,” Trump later told reporters, adding “you’ll...

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31 Jul 2026

Equity market snap-back fails to reverse the dollar’s decline

Happy Friday. Global equity indices are rebounding this morning after Citadel, Ken Griffin’s investment firm, stepped in to acquire the portfolio of technology-focused fund Situational Awareness, which had come under extreme stress as declining valuations forced it to meet margin calls from its lenders. The rescue of 25-year-old* Leopold Aschenbrenner’s firm reduces the risk of a disorderly liquidation of artificial intelligence-related holdings and has supported a modest recovery in risk appetite. The dollar—the principal beneficiary of the artificial-intelligence boom, buoyed by the concentration of investment in the US and strong foreign demand for related assets—is nonetheless struggling to find its...

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30 Jul 2026

JPY FX market jolt

• JPY jump. Sizeable drop in USD/JPY, reportedly due to intervention. This has weighed on the USD & pushed AUD up to levels last traded in mid-June.• Market pulse. BoJ meets today. Could it deliver a surprise hike? BoE kept rates steady overnight. US GDP underwhelmed but underlying detail was solid. Global Trends A flurry of excitement across markets overnight with FX in the spotlight. The USD has been under pressure with a bit more of a reaction to yesterday’s ‘on hold’ US Fed decision compounded by moves in the JPY. USD/JPY (the second most traded currency pair) has dropped...

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30 Jul 2026

US inflation, spending, and growth data help preserve rate expectations, leaving dollar unchanged

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure climbed by slightly less than expected last month and underlying growth in the US economy remained robust in the second quarter, helping keep near-term expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory intact. Monthly data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.1% in June from the prior month, undershooting market forecasts for a 0.2% increase. On a year-over-year basis, core price growth decelerated to 3.3% from 3.4% previously, aligning with economist estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index fell -0.1% relative to the prior...

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