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22 Sep 2026

Currency markets calm as optimism returns

Good morning. The dollar is edging lower as tensions in the Middle East show signs of easing and technology shares advance on a renewed wave of optimism. Brent is trading below $99 a barrel — down from $108 a week ago — after Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline and Reuters reported that Iran is willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if America lifts its blockade. Valuations are climbing across the artificial intelligence sector after Meta’s new assistant, Muse, received positive reviews and a pickup in users, helping justify massive capital expenditures from the major hyperscalers....

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21 Sep 2026

Markets stabilise as economic data cadence slows

Good morning. Stress is easing across the currency markets this morning as energy prices pull back, Treasury yields dip, and equity futures advance. The euro is holding steady even after Germany’s biggest conservative party suffered some of its worst state election results since 1949. Preliminary results show the Christian Democratic Union led by chancellor Friedrich Merz winning just 4.9% of the vote in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern—against 38.3% for the hard-right Alternative für Deutschland—and 18.8% of the vote in Berlin, with the far-left Die Linke taking 25.7%. Merz’s leadership was not on the ballots, but the setback will make his reform agenda more...

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17 Sep 2026

Dollar ascends after hawkish Fed decision

Good morning. Risk sentiment is improving across the financial markets and the dollar is holding near a seven-week high after the Federal Reserve fired the starting gun on a new monetary tightening cycle and oil prices pulled back, easing tensions in bond markets. In yesterday’s unanimous decision, the Fed’s rate-setting committee raised borrowing costs by a quarter of a percentage point, saying the move would help return inflation to target in a “timelier” way. Chair Kevin Warsh pinned the decision on a strong economy, a stubbornly slow disinflation process, and geopolitical tensions that are lifting commodity prices—appearing to signal that...

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16 Sep 2026

Hawks in the Fed nest

• Fed hike. A ‘hawkish’ US Fed rate rise. Forecasts point to more ‘tightening’ later this year. US equities dip. USD firmer. AUD & NZD remain on the backfoot.• Macro pulse. US retail sales stronger than expected. US Fed has more work to do. BoE tonight & BoJ tomorrow. RBA predicted to hike rates later this month. Global Trends Economic events in the US were in focus overnight with a strong retail sales report compounded by a ‘hawkish’ interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. US retail sales grew 1.2% in August, a positive signal about broader macro momentum given...

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16 Sep 2026

Fed hikes rates, signals more to come

As had been widely expected, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates and telegraphed at least one additional move this year as policymakers grapple with rising inflation risks — putting the central bank on a hawkish footing that should help stabilise the dollar. After two days of discussion, the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to raise the target range for the federal funds rate between 3.75 and 4.00%, matching market expectations that had built after August’s strong jobs and inflation reports. In a brief statement setting out the decision, the committee again acknowledged persistently-high uncertainty but noted that economic activity...

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