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Market Wire, North America

Donald Trump hits Canada with additional 50% tariffs

Update: The White House posted annexes setting out product-specific tariff rates after my earlier market wire was sent. Using the information in the annexes applied to pre-Trump trade volumes, our rough estimates suggest the overall increase in potential levies comes in at around $19.1 billion USD or 4.6% of Canadian exports to the US, meaning that the average tariff rate applied to Canadian products could rise by roughly 2.3 percentage points. This would undoubtedly be painful for the affected Canadian industrial sectors, but should be substantially less damaging to the economy than initially feared. The implications for Bank of Canada...

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Bank of Canada stays on hold, demonstrates growing confidence in the economic outlook

As markets had overwhelmingly anticipated, the Bank of Canada left its policy settings on hold this morning, while pointing to signs of renewed economic growth and gradually easing inflation against a backdrop of persistent risks from the Middle East conflict and US trade tensions. Officials led by Governor Tiff Macklem maintained the policy rate at 2.25 percent for a sixth consecutive meeting after delivering nine cuts between June 2024 and September 2025. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers took a more optimistic view on the outlook, highlighting recent evidence of solid consumer spending, a stabilisation in housing...

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Underlying US inflation decelerates sharply, taking a July rate hike off the table

Underlying consumer price growth turned negative in the United States last month, smashing the case for an imminent rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and adding to the downward pressure building against the dollar. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—fell -0.02% in month-over-month terms in June, slowing sharply from the 0.2% pace set a month earlier. This undershot all of the estimates provided by economists ahead of the release, and lowered the annual increase in prices to 2.6% from 2.9% previously. Softness was...

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Canadian dollar inches higher after jobs number beats expectations

The Canadian economy again generated more jobs than anticipated last month, further lowering the likelihood of an economic downturn and allowing policymakers at the Bank of Canada to remain squarely focused on inflation risks. According to an update just published by Statistics Canada, 18,200 new positions were added in June, slowing from 87,800 in the prior month while overshooting the 10,000-job consensus forecast. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 6.5% from 6.6% previously, also beating expectations. Most of the total—17,500 positions—were added in part time roles, but there was little sign of a pullback after the 154,000-job gain in full-time...

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Underlying Canadian inflation pressures hold firm, lowering rate expectations

There was little evidence of higher energy costs broadening to raise prices for other goods and services in Canada last month, with underlying inflation pressures holding steady, further lowering the likelihood of a rate hike from the Bank of Canada by year end. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed core inflation—which strips out food and energy prices—and is computed as the average of the two price measures now preferred by the central bank (trim and median), remaining unchanged in May from a month earlier, rising 2.1% on a year-over-year basis. On a headline all-items basis, prices increased 1.0%...

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