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Market Wire, North America

Currency markets brace for modest moves as Iran strikes fail to shift strategic calculus

Currency markets are set for a jolt when trading resumes this afternoon, though the reaction may prove less dramatic than the weekend’s headlines might suggest. US and Israeli strikes on Iran have sent missiles arcing across the Middle East and claimed the life of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting celebrations in Iranian cities. Yet for all the pyrotechnics, the military campaign appears calibrated to avoid the kind of escalation that would force a wholesale repricing of risk assets. American and Israeli forces are conducting what military planners often describe as “lawn mowing” operations—hits on missile infrastructure and targeted assassinations of...

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US and Israel launch regime change attempt in Iran, potentially roiling markets

The US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran earlier this morning, with the apparent aim of overthrowing the regime that has ruled since 1979. In an early-morning address, US president Donald Trump said “The United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests,” telling Iranians: “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.” Verifiable news has been limited, but the initial barrage appears to have targeted Iranian leadership, not wider military or economic infrastructure. Explosions have...

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Trump raises tariffs, again

Only a day after the Supreme Court struck down his tariff regime, and less than 18 hours after signing an executive order implementing new 10 percent tariffs on all US trading partners, Donald Trump has announced he will increase the levy to 15 percent. In a post on his social media platform, the president said after a “thorough, detailed, and complete review of the ridiculous, poorly written, and extraordinarily anti-American” court decision, he is “effective immediately, raising the 10 [percent] Worldwide Tariff on Countries, many of which have been ‘ripping’ the U.S. off for decades, without retribution (until I came...

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Trump implements new 10% global tariffs

US president Donald Trump has said he will sign an order imposing 10-percent tariffs on all global imports later today, replacing many of the levies ruled illegal by the Supreme Court this morning. In a press conference punctuated by accusations of foreign meddling in American courts, the president said the new duties will be implemented under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, implying that there can be no carveouts for specific product groupings, and that the government will have 150 days to gain Congressional approval before they expire. During that time, Trump said his administration would begin investigations...

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Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariff regime, doesn’t rule on refunds

The Supreme Court of the United States this morning ruled against Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs, but declined to rule on firm’s eligibility for refunds, meaning that importers will be left to pursue claims through the Court of International Trade. At first glance, the ruling should reduce tail risks for market participants. The threat of abrupt and unilateral changes in US tariff rates has been a persistent source of volatility premia in foreign exchange, particularly for export-sensitive currencies. By narrowing the scope for executive action and lengthening the policy transmission lag, the...

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