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Market Wire, North America

Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariff regime, doesn’t rule on refunds

The Supreme Court of the United States this morning ruled against Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs, but declined to rule on firm’s eligibility for refunds, meaning that importers will be left to pursue claims through the Court of International Trade. At first glance, the ruling should reduce tail risks for market participants. The threat of abrupt and unilateral changes in US tariff rates has been a persistent source of volatility premia in foreign exchange, particularly for export-sensitive currencies. By narrowing the scope for executive action and lengthening the policy transmission lag, the...

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Fed holds rates in broadly-supported decision, shifts statement language into neutral

The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged this afternoon, and subtly upgraded its assessment of labour markets and growth, disappointing those expecting a more dovish bias and lending the dollar some much-needed support. In the widely-expected decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted by a consensus-driven 10-to-2 margin to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 3.50 and 3.75 percent. Trump appointee Stephen Miran again dissented from the majority in favour of a bigger move, joined by Christopher Waller, who is seen as a potential candidate for Chair when Jerome Powell’s term ends. In a tweak to the...

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Bank of Canada stays sidelined, preserves optionality for future moves

As markets had overwhelmingly anticipated, the Bank of Canada left its policy settings on hold this morning, and again clearly signalled that rates are already at near-neutral levels, keeping expectations restrained for the year ahead and leaving currency markets broadly unmoved. Policymakers led by Governor Tiff Macklem maintained the policy rate at 2.25 percent for a second consecutive meeting after delivering nine cuts between June 2024 and September 2025. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers noted that the current policy rate “remains appropriate, conditional on the economy evolving broadly in line with the outlook we published today....

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Dollar plunges as Trump downplays recent weakness

The dollar is tumbling through technical barriers across most major currency pairs after US president Donald Trump told reporters “I could have it go up or down like a yo-yo,” and that he’s not concerned about its recent decline, saying “Look at the business we’re doing. The dollar’s doing great”. “If you look at China and Japan, I used to fight like hell with them, because they always wanted to devalue,” he said, but “it’s hard to compete when they devalue”. The president’s comments suggest that recent (rumoured) moves to support Japanese currency intervention—intended to raise the value of the...

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Markets rally as Trump backs down on Greenland

Markets are celebrating TACO Tuesday on a Wednesday after US President Donald Trump dropped a threat to impose tariffs on imports from a number of European trading partners, saying that he and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte had “framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region”. The dollar is climbing against its peers, while the Swiss franc falls amid a broader surge in risk appetite. Equity markets are rallying and US yields are edging lower. In a post on his social media platform, the president said: “Based upon a very productive meeting that...

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