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Market Brief, North America

Dollar Softens Amid ‘Trump Trade’ Pullback

The greenback is down against all of its major rivals this morning after investors spent the weekend walking back bets on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. Final polls released yesterday showed the race headed toward a photo finish, with NBC News deadlocked at 49 percent-and-49 percent nationally, ABC News/Ipsos giving Kamala Harris a 49 percent-to-46 percent national edge, New York Times/Siena putting the vice president ahead in five of seven swing states, and the Des Moines Register suggesting that she could win in Iowa – a state long considered a lock for Trump. Major elements of the “Trump...

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Stress Climbs in Currency Markets

The dollar is holding steady and measures of expected currency volatility are ratcheting higher as global investors go to ground ahead of today’s US non-farm payrolls report and next week’s presidential election. Ten-year Treasury yields are edging closer to the 4.30-percent threshold after softening briefly earlier in the week, North American equity markets are setting up for a defensive move after a series of mixed earnings reports from the likes of Microsoft and Meta, and oil prices are pushing higher on reports of a potential Iranian escalation in its ongoing tit-for-tat cycle with Israel. Forecasts for job creation in this...

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Dollar Steamrolls Toward Monthly Gain as Data Confirms Underlying Strength

The dollar is losing momentum amid month-end cross-currents, but looks set to end October with its biggest gain in two years as growth data continues to surprise to the upside and anticipation rises ahead of next week’s election. Numbers released yesterday showed the economy gaining steam. According to ADP’s measure, private sector employment jumped by 233,000 jobs in October, accelerating from 143,000 in September, and nearly doubling consensus forecasts. Gross domestic product climbed at a 2.8-percent annualised rate in the third quarter, slightly slowing from the second quarter’s 3-percent pace, but final private sales to domestic purchasers – an arguably-cleaner...

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Currency Markets Enter Holding Pattern

Financial markets are in calm-before-the-storm mode ahead of a raft of economic data releases that are expected to show the US economy outperforming its advanced-economy peers, and before Americans head to the polls to choose the next president. The dollar is holding recent gains, Treasury yields are down slightly, equity futures are little changed, and oil prices are steadying after yesterday’s steep descent. The pound is trading sideways ahead of tomorrow’s Autumn Budget, and deteriorating cross-Atlantic rate differentials are keeping pressure on the euro. The Canadian dollar remains firmly on the defensive, pressured by weak domestic fundamentals, widening yield spreads,...

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Markets Hunker Down As Event Risk Minefield Looms

De-risking activities are dominating trading activity in financial markets this morning as participants brace for what could be the most momentous fortnight of the year. Treasury yields are climbing once again, with the ten-year now yielding 4.25 percent, the dollar is advancing against its major peers, and trade-sensitive currencies – like the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso – are flirting with year-to-date lows. Crude prices are down sharply after Israeli aircraft struck military targets in Iran over the weekend, avoiding any obvious harm to the country’s energy infrastructure and giving Tehran room to avoid another round of escalation. Implied volatility...

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