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Market Brief, North America

07 Jul 2025

Markets Trade Sideways As Trade Uncertainties Loom

The dollar is holding near a three-year low and measures of risk appetite are pointing to subdued trading action after the Trump administration seemingly extended its tariff deadline to August 1—reducing fears of a violent selloff around Wednesday’s original drop-dead date. Measures of trade policy uncertainty* have fallen sharply from their heights. At an event dubbed “Liberation Day” in early April, President Trump said imports from most countries would become subject to a 10 percent baseline tariff rate, and additional “reciprocal” levies—some ranging as high as 50 percent—would be applied against those running large trade imbalances with the US. However,...

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03 Jul 2025

US Jobs Report Crushes Expectations, Triggering Dollar Rally

The US job creation engine accelerated last month, weakening market expectations for at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the back half of the year. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 147,000 jobs were added in June – representing a solid overshoot relative to the 110,000-position consensus forecast – and the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.1 percent, from 4.2 percent in the prior month. Job growth in the previous month was revised higher to 144,000, bringing the three-month average up to 150,000. Caveats were present – 73,000 jobs were added...

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27 Jun 2025

Canadian Dollar Plunges As Trump Threatens To Reimpose Tariffs

The peace and quiet was nice, while it lasted. The Canadian dollar is down almost 60 basis points after President Donald Trump said he was ending all trade negotiations with the country, while threatening to impose new tariffs within the next week. In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said, “We have just been informed that Canada, a very difficult Country to TRADE with, including the fact that they have charged our Farmers as much as 400% Tariffs, for years, on Dairy Products, has just announced that they are putting a Digital Services Tax on our American Technology...

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27 Jun 2025

Markets Turn Cautious As US Consumer Spending Engine Slows

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure came in slightly hotter than expected in May—lending support to the central bank’s cautious approach—but personal spending levels missed forecasts, pointing to a more profound slowdown ahead. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.2 percent from the prior month, topping market forecasts for a 0.1-percent increase. On a year-over-year basis, core price growth sped up to 2.7 percent, also exceeding economist estimates for a 2.6 percent advance, and the prior month’s increase was revised up to 2.5 percent. The overall personal consumption...

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26 Jun 2025

“Shadow Fed Chair” Fears Drive Dollar Lower

The dollar is trading near a three-year low and Treasury yields are down across the curve after a report suggested that Donald Trump could appoint the next Federal Reserve chair early in an attempt to push interest rates in a more favourable direction. According to the Wall Street Journal, frustration with the central bank’s easing trajectory has led the president to consider naming a successor to Jerome Powell in the coming months, with Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett, Scott Bessent, and David Malpass all emerging as potential contenders for a role that would be expected to steer the central...

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