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Market Brief, North America

19 Jun 2025

Risk Sentiment Deteriorates As Liquidity Thins And Geopolitical Tensions Increase

The dollar is holding steady amid holiday-thinned trading conditions as investors process a raft of central bank policy announcements and brace for a spike in geopolitical tensions in the hours or days ahead. Treasury yields are down, equity futures are soft, and safe-haven currencies are outperforming their risk-sensitive counterparts after reports circulated suggesting that the US will join Israeli bombardment of Iran in the coming days and President Donald Trump said “I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do”. An escalation in the war is seen raising the risk of...

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18 Jun 2025

Investors Keep Powder Dry In Run-Up to Fed Meeting

The dollar is giving back yesterday’s gains, Treasury yields are holding steady, and North American equity markets are moving sideways as investors await news on the US role in the Israel-Iran conflict — and brace for this afternoon’s Federal Reserve decision. Oil prices leapt higher during yesterday’s session after US president Donald Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” in a social media post, suggesting that American forces could soon join the fray, and raising the risk of a wider escalation in the war, but are now subsiding as traders monitor the newswires. The world’s most powerful central bank is widely...

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17 Jun 2025

Dollar’s Decline Remains Intact Even As Risk Backdrop Worsens

The dollar is up slightly this morning, but remains on course toward its worst year-to-date performance in this century, even as geopolitical risks simmer in the background and the Federal Reserve grapples with a raft of potential inflation risks. Yields are under pressure, equity markets are headed for a mixed open, and measures of risk sentiment are softening ahead of an expected Israeli assault on Tehran later today — as well as tomorrow’s all-important Fed meeting. American consumers turned slightly more cautious in May, paying little heed to a 90-day tariff pause announced by the Trump administration — and the...

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16 Jun 2025

Geopolitical Concerns Ease Ahead of Action-Packed Week

Measures of market stress are moderating ahead of a week crammed with a combustible array of potential volatility catalysts including an escalation in Middle East hostilities, three major central bank meetings and a raft of first-tier economic data. Treasury yields are ticking higher, equity futures are pointing to a recovery from Friday’s losses, and the dollar’s gains are fading in the face of renewed advances from the euro, Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, and Australian dollar. An easing in geopolitical uncertainty is putting safe-haven currencies under pressure and oil prices are retreating after Israel and Iran avoided targeting critical energy infrastructure...

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13 Jun 2025

Israeli Attack on Iran Leaves Markets Rattled

Financial markets are suffering another round of tumult this morning after Israel launched dozens of air strikes against Iran, targeting its air defences, nuclear programme, and military leadership. As we go to print, it is clear that at least twenty top officials in Iran – including the military chief of staff, commander of the Revolutionary Guards, secretary of the National Security Council, and a number of nuclear scientists – have been killed, and that the Israeli Air Force has established air superiority over much of the country, paving the way for more intensive operations against nuclear enrichment infrastructure. Equity futures...

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