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AUD

20 Jul 2023

Australian labour market: still on solid ground

Another month, another positive surprise in the Australian labour force lottery. ~32,600 jobs were added in June, led by further strength in full-time employment (+39,300). The positive run means the employment-to-population ratio remains at a record high (64.5%), with the unemployment rate holding steady at a downwardly revised 3.5%. Unemployment is just above its ~50-year lows. Other metrics like underemployment (now 6.4% compared to an average of 8.5% in the years before COVID) and hours worked show that the labour market is still chugging along. Conditions remain tight and hiring demand has (so far) moved in step with the jump...

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19 Jul 2023

UK CPI surprise

• UK CPI. UK yields plunged & GBP weakened after UK inflation came in lower than expected. This helped boost the USD.• AU jobs. Australian jobs report released today. The data has been more volatile than usual recently. A downside surprise would be a AUD negative.• AUD sluggish. Firmer USD has weighed on the AUD. Beyond the AU jobs data, the US Fed meeting is coming into focus. Another hike expected next week. Inflation outcomes continue to drive markets. Attention overnight was in Europe. For the first time in 5 months, UK CPI inflation undershot expectations. Headline UK inflation slowed...

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18 Jul 2023

Still solid US retail spending

• Mixed fortunes. Equities higher, while European bond yields fell after the ECB’s Knot watered down future rate hike expectations.• US data. Headline retail sales a bit softer, but the control group (which feeds into US GDP) was stronger. We expect another Fed hike next week.• NZ CPI. Annual headline inflation stepped down. Inflation is past its peak & NZ growth is slowing. We see AUD/NZD moving higher over the medium-term. Diverging trends across markets. Solid earnings results and decent US retail sales data (see below) has helped underpin equities. The lift in bank and artificial intelligence linked stocks pushed...

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17 Jul 2023

Sluggish China growth pulse

• China data. China’s post-COVID recovery continues to stumble. The pick-up in annual growth wasn’t as strong as anticipated.• Shaky sentiment. Growth concerns exerted some downward pressure on bond yields, commodities, the CNH, the AUD & NZD.• US trends. US retail sales due tonight. A solid report could see US rate expectations lift, supporting the USD. RBA minutes released today. Mixed fortunes across markets at the start of the new week with China’s data batch in focus. China’s post-COVID recovery continues to stumble with the economy expanding by 0.8% in Q2. As a result, the pick-up in annual growth wasn’t...

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16 Jul 2023

Will the China data disappoint?

• US sentiment. US yields & the USD recovered some ground after US consumer confidence rebounded. US retail sales in focus ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.• China in focus. China Q2 GDP & monthly activity data released today. The post COVID recovery has been faltering. Soft data could dampen risk sentiment.• AUD sluggish. The AUD’s upswing has lost steam. We think offshore forces could outweigh another solid Australian labour market report this week. Relative to the substantial adjustment earlier in the week, markets were more sedate on Friday, with a bit of a reversal coming through in bonds and...

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