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SGD

23 May 2023

US debt ceiling: deal or no deal?

• US debt ceiling. Lack of progress has weighed on risk sentiment. US equities fell overnight and the USD added to its recent gains.• Two-speed economy. Manufacturing PMIs in ‘contractionary’ territory, while services remain robust. The former is a negative for commodity demand & the AUD.• RBNZ in focus. Another RBNZ hike expected today. The debate is around how big it could be (25bps or 50bps)? AUD/NZD is sub 1.06. US debt ceiling negotiations continue to hog the headlines and the lack of progress has weighed on risk sentiment. Equity markets lost ground with the US S&P500 falling by 1.1%....

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22 May 2023

US debt ceiling still in focus

• US debt ceiling. Talks are set to restart today. A deal is needed to be agreed quickly given the ‘x-date’ is fast approaching.• Fed pricing. Markets pricing in a chance of a June Fed hike, but are still looking for ~2-3 cuts by January. An unwind of these bets could be USD positive.• AUD holding. Limited local data flow. Global events will drive the AUD near-term. AUD/NZD sub 1.06. Tomorrow’s RBNZ meeting is in focus. It has been a quiet start to the new week with limited moves across markets as participants await the latest round of US debt...

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21 May 2023

US debt ceiling: two steps forward, 1 step back

• US debt ceiling. Talks hit an impasse. Negotiations set to resume later today. A deal is needed quickly with the ‘x-date’ coming closer into view.• AUD sluggish. Global forces will continue to drive the AUD. Beyond the debt ceiling, the global economy is slowing. This is normally a headwind for the AUD.• RBNZ hike. AUD/NZD has slipped below 1.06. RBNZ meets on Wednesday. Following the NZ Budget expectations of another ‘hawkish hike’ have risen. Optimism regarding a US debt ceiling deal faded a bit on Friday, with negotiations reaching an impasse. US equities lost some ground (S&P500 -0.1%), while...

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17 May 2023

US debt ceiling optimism

• US debt ceiling. Positive rhetoric from both sides supported sentiment. US equities & bond yields rose. USD index firmer, with AUD ~$0.6660.• Fed speak on the radar. In addition to the debt ceiling, US Fed speakers will be in focus the rest of the week. Markets pricing ~3 rate cuts by January.• Labour market data. April Australian labour report due today. Labour market is a lagging indicator. Data for April reflects the state of play ~6-months ago. A more positive tone to markets overnight with comments on both sides of the US political spectrum easing fears of a potential...

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14 May 2023

Higher inflation expectations are a worry for the US Fed

• US inflation worries. Jump in US inflation expectations should catch the US Fed’s eye. Market pricing for multiple Fed rate cuts looks misplaced.• USD rebound. Higher yields supported the USD. US retail sales & Fed speakers in focus this week. Reduction in Fed rate cut pricing should be USD positive.• AUD slips back. The AUD has extended its slide. Local and offshore data should generate AUD vol. On net, we think the AUD can fall back further. Markets nervousness continued into the end of last week, with growth concerns, higher US inflation expectations, and US debt ceiling worries weighing...

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