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SGD

Hawks in the BoE nest

• Hawkish surprise. BoE delivered a 50bp hike. At 5% the BoE bank rate is at its highest since early-2008. High inflation points to more hikes to come.• Markets thinking ahead. UK long-end bond yields & GBP dipped as the negative economic impacts of higher rates start to become more of a focus.• Firmer USD. US yields & the USD rose. AUD slipped back further. Weaker global growth is a negative backdrop for risk sentiment & the AUD. Central banks remain laser focused on breaking the back of high/sticky inflation, with growth considerations still down the pecking order. Overnight, the...

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Another BoE rate hike expected

• Mixed markets. Equities lower. US yields little changed but European yields rose. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 2 more hikes is a “pretty good guess”.• Hot UK inflation. UK core inflation at its highest since 1992. Bank of England set to hike again tonight. The debate is on the size of the move.• AUD mixed. AUD hovering near ~$0.68. AUD has lost ground against the EUR & JPY over the past few days. External headwinds still in place for the AUD. Mixed fortunes across markets overnight. Equities were a bit weaker, with the tech-focused NASDAQ underperforming (S&P500 & EuroStoxx50...

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Shaky sentiment

• Negative vibes. US on holiday, but European equities dipped & bond yields rose. Hawkish central bank rhetoric was a factor.• China stimulus. Lack of an announcement by China on a stimulus package also weighed on sentiment. We think markets are too ‘bulled up’ about China stimulus.• AUD softer. AUD has given back a little ground. RBA meeting minutes released today. RBA’s Kent & Bullock also due to speak. With the US on holiday it was a relatively quiet night for markets, though risk appetite has been softer across those that were open. European equities dipped (EuroStoxx600 -1%), oil prices...

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Lofty heights

• Policy divergence. JPY continues to weaken with the BoJ’s stance continuing to diverge from the rest of the world. AUD near a multi-month high.• Fed talk. Chair Powell testifies to Congress this week. Markets still aren’t pricing in the Fed’s views. A shift up could give the USD some support.• China stimulus. More stimulus to support the faltering recovery is anticipated, but we think China may not meet the markets seemingly lofty thinking. US markets had a relatively quiet end to a busy week on Friday. US equities retreated from their 14-month highs (S&P500 -0.4%), while bond yields increased...

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Another hawkish ECB hike

• Weaker USD. ECB delivered another hawkish hike. Policy divergence between the ECB & US Fed has boosted the EUR & weighed on the USD.• AUD stronger. Compounding the softer USD was another strong local labour market report & expectations China could announce stimulus to boost growth.• BoJ today. No changes expected. But tweaks appear inevitable. JPY is at quite low levels. We think there are more upside than downside risks from here. US and European markets diverged overnight, with contrasting central bank expectations a driver. European equities eased back (EuroStoxx50 -0.3%) and bond yields rose after the ECB delivered...

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