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SGD

21 Aug 2023

Bond yields still rising

• Bond yields. US 10-year yields at their highest since 2007. The upswing in real yields has been the driver. Despite the lift in yields US equities also rose.• Stable FX. The USD & AUD consolidated. AUD remains near the bottom of its 2023 range. Is the AUD finding a base?• Upcoming events. European/US PMIs (Weds), China developments, & upcoming speeches by Fed Chair Powell & ECB President Lagarde are in focus. Despite the limited news flow bond yields have extended their upswing with markets focused on this week’s Jackson Hole Symposium and speeches by US Fed Chair Powell and...

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20 Aug 2023

Pausing for breath

• Calmer markets. US bond yields, the S&P500, & the USD consolidated on Friday, though underlying risk sentiment still looks somewhat fragile.• Global events. European/US PMIs (Weds), week ending speeches by Fed Chair Powell & ECB President Lagarde, & China developments in focus this week.• AUD consolidating. AUD treading water near its 2023 lows. There are no local events scheduled this week. AUD will be driven by offshore news. After a busy few sessions markets consolidated on Friday with little new news coming through to move the needle or alter the fragile state of risk sentiment. The US S&P500 was...

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17 Aug 2023

Bond yields & China in focus

• Bond moves. Yields have continued to rise. The US 10-yr is at its highest since late-2007. This has exerted more pressure on equities. USD remains firm.• CNY focus. Trends in China & CNY remain in focus. Policymakers in China appear to be becoming uncomfortable with the CNY weakness.• AU jobs. Labour market data undershot expectations. Unemployment rose in July, extending the AUD weakness. But is the AUD starting to find a base? Developments in bond markets and China remain front of mind. Against a backdrop of light news and economic dataflow bond yields have risen further. Concerns that rates...

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16 Aug 2023

Negative vibes

• Wall of worry. China worries, sticky UK inflation & a hawkish tone in the Fed minutes weighed on risk sentiment, pushed up US yields & supported the USD.• AUD pressure. The backdrop has exerted more pressure on the AUD. The AUD is in rarefied air. Since 2015 AUD/USD has only been lower in ~2% of trading days.• AU jobs. July labour force report released today. The labour market is a lagging indicator. Consensus is looking for unemployment to tick up slightly to 3.6%. Familiar themes have continued to drive markets. On the one hand concerns about the state of...

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15 Aug 2023

Under pressure

• Mixed signals. Weak China data & positive surprises in US retail sales, Canadian inflation, & UK wages has rattled market nerves.• Negative vibes. The deluge of data has seen US/European bond yields rise & equity markets fall. USD remains firm. AUD touched another 2023 low.• Upcoming events. No change expected from the RBNZ today. UK CPI, US housing & production data, & the FOMC meeting minutes also due. It has been a busy 24hrs with markets digesting a deluge of data. There were mostly positive surprises with activity and/or inflation metrics generally coming in hotter than expected, though China...

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