SGD

• Market turbulence. Stronger US wage data pushed up US yields & dampened the risk sentiment. The stronger USD has seen the AUD fall back.• Regional data. Sluggish China PMIs & downside surprise in AU retail sales also weighed on the AUD. Some heat has come out of RBA rate hike bets.• Fed focus. US Fed decision/press conference the next major events. A ‘hawkish hold’ looks likely, but rate expectations already look to have moved that way. A bout of turbulence overnight with stronger than expected US wages and negative signals from business and consumer surveys dampening the mood. The...

• Stagflation concerns. Slower US growth & sticky inflation rattled nerves. US yields rose. Equities slipped back. But on net the USD eased.• AUD rebound. The positive Q1 Australian CPI surprise & repricing in RBA rate expectations has underpinned the AUD over the past few days.• BoJ today. No changes expected, but upgrades to inflation forecasts could see the BoJ deliver a ‘hawkish’ message. JPY intervention risks still elevated. The Q1 US GDP report rattled a few market nerves overnight as “stagflation” concerns (i.e. slow growth and high inflation) returned. Bond yields rose with rates in the US rising by...

• Shaky sentiment. Middle East jitters were compounded by stronger US retail sales. Higher US bond yields weighed on equities & supported the USD.• AUD lower. Yesterday’s modest AUD recovery unwound overnight. The AUD is near its 2024 lows. USD upswing is pressuring other currencies.• China & Fed speakers. China Q1 GDP released today. Several US Fed members also due to speak. The list includes Fed Chair Powell. After the market mood picked up during yesterday’s Asian trade sentiment soured overnight. The familiar forces of jitters about the situation in the Middle East after Israel vowed to respond and outlook...