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NZD

27 Feb 2024

Cross-Check: AUD/NZD – Bouncing back

After falling away sharply over the past few weeks AUD/NZD looks to be bouncing back to life. A key catalyst behind the drop in AUD/NZD to multi-quarter lows recently was the NZD supportive upward repricing in NZ interest rate expectations as markets factored in a chance the normally cavalier RBNZ re-starts its hiking cycle. In the end, at today’s meeting, the RBNZ clipped the markets ‘hawkish’ wings. The RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate was held steady at 5.5%, and the underlying tone and updated forecasts watered down the prospect of further tightening this cycle. The implied odds of another rate rise...

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27 Feb 2024

Will the RBNZ re-start is hiking cycle?

• Low vol. US/European equities consolidated, while bond yields nudged up. FX markets were well contained. AUD range traded over the past 24hrs.• RBNZ decision. RBNZ meets today. Markets are assigning a ~21% chance they hike rates. No change could see the NZD fall & AUD/NZD snap back.• AU CPI. January reading of the monthly CPI indicator due today. Annual inflation forecast to re-accelerate. This may catch the eye & give the AUD a boost. Another uneventful session overnight. US and European equities consolidated (S&P500 +0.1%), with yesterday’s lift in Asia not flowing through (China’s CSI300 index rose 1.2%, its...

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26 Feb 2024

Rate markets continue to adjust

• Yields rise. Near-term rate cut bets continue to be trimmed back. This pushed up European & US bond yields, with EUR a little firmer.• Low vol. Outside of bonds, volatility across other major asset markets is below average. Japanese inflation, Fed speakers & US data in focus today.• AUD softer. Lower base metal prices have exerted a bit of pressure on the AUD. But correlations between the AUD & iron ore aren’t what they used to be. The subdued market performance has continued with relatively modest moves across most asset classes at the start of the week. As our...

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19 Feb 2024

Hold the line

• Holiday trade. Minimal moves with the US on holiday. European equities consolidated, while the major currencies remained range bound.• USD trends. ECB wage indicator & Canadian CPI tonight. US Fed commentary in focus later this week with markets now pricing in little chance of a March cut.• AUD drivers. February minutes released today & wage data due tomorrow. Signals from China suggest spending was positive during Lunar New Year. With the US closed for Presidents Day and newsflow limited there were minimal market moves overnight. European equities consolidated with the EuroStoxx600 (+0.2%) making its way up towards its January...

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15 Feb 2024

Bad news is good news

• Market reversal. The unwind of this week’s US inflation driven moves has continued. Equities higher, US yields eased a bit, & the USD lost ground.• Sentiment vs reality. The positive tone has come through despite sluggish global data. Japan & the UK entered recession, US retail sales declined.• AU jobs. The jobs report underwhelmed, but technical factors point to an unwind next month. AUD has clawed its way back to where it started the week. Investors have been in a ‘bad economic news is good for markets’ frame of mind. The unwind of the US inflation driven bout of...

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