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GBP

06 Sep 2023

USD remains high

• Higher for longer. Solid US services ISM data & rhetoric from central bankers has boosted bond yields. The USD remains near its recent highs.• AUD stabilises. After a difficult run the AUD has consolidated, albeit at low levels. Q2 GDP was on net a bit better than expected with population growth supportive.• Event radar. RBA Governor Lowe gives his last speech (“Some closing remarks”) today. China trade & US jobless claims data are also released. The USD has held its ground and continues to track near multi-month or year-to-date highs against the other major currencies. Data wise, the US...

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05 Sep 2023

AUD battered & bruised

• Stronger USD. Softer data out of China & higher US bond yields on the back of a lift in oil has supported the USD. The JPY, AUD, & NZD hit fresh 2023 lows.• AUD underperformance. The AUD has weakened. As expected the RBA kept rates on hold, though it retained its mild conditional tightening bias.• Relative expectations. We think a lot of positives are factored into the USD & negative AUD sentiment is high. AU Q2 GDP & US services ISM released today. The USD has strengthened over the past 24hrs. Softer than expected second tier China Caixin Services...

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05 Sep 2023

Lowered expectations

As a long-ago MadTV skit illustrated, lowered expectations can be the key to happiness – in dating, and in life. Something similar applies in the currency markets, where – to paraphrase the behavioural investing expert Michael Mauboussin – traders need to assess the level of expected performance embedded in exchange rates and then assess the likelihood of a revision in expectations. If expectations seem poorly aligned with future results, volatility is likely ahead. Our turnover-weighted measure of economic surprise indices, which represents the gap between consensus forecasts and official data across the major currencies relative to the United States, suggests...

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31 Aug 2023

US payrolls in focus

• Mixed markets. The USD clawed back ground against the softer EUR & GBP. AUD/USD held up with AUD/EUR and AUD/GBP rising.• China pulse. Forward components point to a pick up in the manufacturing PMI. Authorities also continue to pull on policy support levers.• US payrolls. US labour market in focus tonight. We think there could be an uneven reaction with a downside surprise likely to generate a larger (negative) jolt on the USD. Markets consolidated overnight with the economic data generally inline with expectations, and with participants having one-eye on tonight’s US labour market report (10:30pm AEST). Equities drifted...

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31 Aug 2023

US exceptionalism trade lifts dollar, supports rate expectations across the curve

Risk appetite remains relatively strong after a series of data releases – including today’s spending and inflation numbers – helped bolster bets on a “soft landing” in the US economy that could convince the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at prevailing levels for an extended period. The major North American equity indices are inching higher, Treasury yields are climbing off three-week lows, and commodity prices are enjoying a brief period of respite, even as the dollar – symbol of American economic outperformance – pushes higher against its major counterparts. North America American consumers spent more than expected last month, defying...

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